My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Thursday Night Football:

BROWNS -7 vs. Jets ✅ – Joe Flacco, baby. (Second week in a row I forgot to blog my TNF pick before the game but you know I’m good for it.)

Saturday:

COWBOYS -4.5 vs. Lions 2× bet ❌ ❌
COWBOYS to beat Lions -225 moneyline 4× bet ✅ ✅ – We’re not going to dig out of this season’s hole sitting on our hands.

Parlay +575 ❌
- Cowboys moneyline
- Dak: 250+ passing yards
x Dak: 15.5+ rushing yards
- Lamb: 80+ receiving yards
x Pollard: 57.5 rushing yards

Sunday:

Dolphins to beat RAVENS +145 moneyline ❌

Rams -6.5 vs. GIANTS ❌

Teaser +160 2× bet ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
- Pats +20 vs. BILLS
- BEARS +3.5 vs Falcons
- Rams 0 vs. GIANTS

CHIEFS -5.5 vs. Bengals 2× bet ✅ ✅

Season to date (weeks 1-16): 52-70-3
This week: 9-5

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Thursday Night Football:

RAMS -4 vs. Saints ✅ – Rams are kicking ass in the second half of the season. (Forgot to post this until today (Saturday), so you’ll have to take my word for it, but you know I don’t fib about these bets. I mean, christ, I’m 15 bets under .500 for the season.)

Saturday:

Bengals -3 vs. STEELERS ❌ – The Bengals have a QB problem but the Steelers have a QB fiasco. All credit to Mason Rudolph: the kid looked great and was dropping dimes to his receivers all game.

Bills -12.5 vs. CHARGERS ❌ – The Chargers are toast, done, and the Bills are hot and healthy. Jiminy christ.

Sunday:

JETS -3 vs. Commanders ❌ – The Jets are fighting and the Commanders have packed their bags for the off-season.

Lions -3 vs. VIKINGS ✅ – I’ve never lost money betting on Jared Goff. Oh, wait…

Cowboys +1 vs. DOLPHINS ❌ ❌ 2× pick of the week – Dallas has been rebounding after each loss this season, and let’s face it, Miami is a fraud with a weak schedule.

Teaser +400 ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
- JETS +3
- Lions +3.5
- Seahawks +3
- BEARS +2
- Cowboys +7

Monday 🎄:

Teaser +160 ❌ ❌ 2× bet
- CHIEFS -4.5
- Giants +20
- Ravens +12.5

Raiders-CHIEFS OVER 39.5 ❌ — Do we bet the over/under thinking about the Raiders that lost a 3-0 game to the Vikings two weeks ago, or the team that scored 63 against the Chargers last week? I say go optimistic.

Teaser +360 ❌
- CHIEFS -10.5
- Over 41.5
- Travis Swift to score a TD

*That’s what I get for banking on the Chiefs. OK, starting over at 4pm:

Giants over EAGLES +650 moneyline ❌ – No regrets, this almost hit.

Parlay +600 ❌
- Giants +14.5
- Tommy Cutlets 1+ passing TDs
- Tommy Cutlets 224.5+ passing yards

Teaser -130 2.5× bet ✅ ✅
- Giants +20
- Ravens +12.5

Season to date (weeks 1-15): 44-59-3
This week: 8-11

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Saturday:

BENGALS -3 vs. Vikings ✋ — I just don’t see it happening for the Vikes down the stretch.

COLTS -1 vs. Steelers ✅ — Feel like the wheels are coming off the bus for the Steelers. Mitch Trubisky trubiskied this one good.

Broncos +5 vs. LIONS ❌ — The Lions just got smoked by the Bears. And the last time they played on national TV, Thanksgiving, they embarrassed themselves against the Packers. Feels like a team of big-game chokers. Meanwhile, Denver has looked like a good team since October. Jiminy was this a beatdown or what?

Teaser +160 ❌
- Bengals +3
- Colts +5
- Broncos +11

Sunday:

Giants +6 vs. SAINTS ❌ — Tommy Cutlets! I should have my goddamn head examined for betting on this team of misfits.

RAMS -6.5 vs. Commanders ✅ — The Rams are playing great the last two months, fighting for the playoffs, and the Commanders smell like a team that’s given up for the year.

Cowboys +2 vs. BILLS ❌ — The Bills are better than their record indicates, but they’re not top-tier. Weather forecast looks downright warm for December in Buffalo: high 40s. (Would be a fun prop bet if they set the over/under as the temperature at kickoff.) Also: Dallas has a 21-game winning streak on artificial turf.

Teaser +600 ❌
- DOLPHINS -1 vs. Jets
- Chiefs -4 @ PATS
- Giants +12 @ SAINTS
- RAMS -0.5 vs. Commanders
- 49ers -5.5 @ CARDINALS
- Cowboys +8 @ BILLS

Teaser +525 ❌
- Cowboys moneyline
- Dak Prescott 2+ passing TDs
- Dak Prescott 229.5+ passing yards
- Josh Allen 229.5+ passing yards
- Tony Pollard 39.5+ rushing yards
- CeeDee Lamb 69.5+ receiving yards

Season to date (weeks 1-14): 42-53-2 Last week: 4-6
This week: 2-6-1

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics. Finally hit a teaser last week, so getting even on the season is maybe within sight.

Thursday Night Football:

Pats-STEELERS UNDER 30 ❌ – This is the lowest NFL over/under since 2005, but deservedly so. My god: the Pats are scoring an average of just 12.3 points per game this season; the Steelers just 16. But it gets worse. Here are the Pats’s scores from the last three weeks: 6-10 (Colts), 7-10 (Giants), 0-6 (Chargers). The Steelers over the last three weeks: 10-24 (Cardinals), 16-10 (Bengals), 10-13 (Browns). Both teams are playing backup quarterbacks (although for the Pats, that’s probably an upgrade), and both teams have defenses that are kicking ass. So I’m not overthinking it: just betting the Under. Welp, this was a bust, but if I had it to do all over again I’d have bet 2× on the Under. If these teams played 10 times I don’t think they’d go over 30 more than twice.

Sunday:

Texans -3.5 vs. JETS ❌ – C’mon, it’s the Jets.

Jaguars-BROWNS OVER 37.5 ✅ – Who doesn’t have Joe Flacco fever?

Rams to beat RAVENS +290 moneyline ❌ – Rams are playing pretty good the last month. Lost on an overtime punt return. Jiminy.

Seahawks +14 vs. NINERS ✅ – So many points.

Bills-CHIEFS OVER 49 ❌ – I think it’s the Chiefs’ fault this over/under isn’t higher, but their offense is going to break out eventually.

Teaser +260 ❌
- Rams +13.5 win
- Texans +2.5 fucking Jets!
- Seahawks +20 win
- Bills +8 win

Sunday Night Football:

COWBOYS to beat Eagles -166 moneyline ✅
COWBOYS -3 vs. Eagles ✅ — Had to take this at -120 to get it down from 3.5.

Teaser +700 ❌
- Cowboys moneyline
- Dak Prescott 275+ yards passing
- Dak Prescott 14.5+ yards rushing
- CeeDee Lamb 80+ yards receiving
- Tony Pollard 58.5+ yards rushing

Season to date (weeks 1-13): 38-47-2 Last week: 9-3
This week: 4-6

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Thursday Night Football:

COWBOYS -9 vs. Seahawks ❌

COWBOYS -5.5 vs. Seahawks ✅ – Tacked on live after the Seahawks got lucky and took a 7-3 lead.

COWBOYS over Seahawks -250 moneyline ✅ – Tacked on at halftime.

Parlay +320: ❌ – Lost by one point on the alternate line.
- COWBOYS -7 alternate line
- Dak Prescott 1.5+ passing TDs
- Dak Prescott 283.5+ passing yards
- CeeDee Lamb 70+ receiving yards

Sunday:

Dolphins -8.5 vs. COMMANDERS ✅ — Ron Rivera has his bags packed.

Lions -4 vs. SAINTS ✅ — Looking for Detroit to bounce back after their embarrassing game on Thanksgiving.

Chargers -4.5 vs. PATS ✅ — Time to dance on Belichick’s grave. 6-0! What an absolute turd of a football game. Can you even imagine sitting in the cold windy stands in Foxborough to watch this?

Broncos -3 vs. TEXANS ❌ — Play this many good games in a row and I believe.

Niners-EAGLES OVER 47 ✅

Teaser +400 2× bet ❌ ❌
- Steelers +0
- Miami -2.5
- Broncos +9.5
- Eagles +9
- Chiefs +1

Teaser +450 1.1× bet ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
- Niners-EAGLES over 46.5
- McCaffrey 1+ TDs
- Purdy 254.5+ passing yards
- Hurts 236.5+ passing yards

Season to date (weeks 1-10): 29-44-2 This week: 9-3

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Thanksgiving:

TEASER: 2× bet ❌ ❌
LIONS -2.5 vs. Packers
COWBOYS -7.5 vs. Commanders — Gotta get some skin in this game. Teaser feels right.

COWBOYS -13.5 vs. Commanders ✅ — Let’s see how far Dallas can stretch this “run up the score against bad teams” thing. Also: most interesting stat I’ve read this week is that Ron Rivera has only ever had two winning seasons as a head coach. He’s on pace to get fired before this season ends.

TEASER: ❌
COWBOYS -7.5 vs. Commanders
SEAHAWKS +13 vs. San Fran — This will look pretty smart if Dallas cruises.

Black Friday:

Dolphins -9.5 vs. JETS ✅

Parlay +375: ❌ – Came close on this, but somehow Miami scored 34 with Tua only throwing 1 TD.
- Dolphins -9.5
- T. Hill: 80+ receiving yards
- Tagovailoa: 2+ passing TDs

Sunday:

Steelers -2.5 vs. BENGALS ✅ – Always bet against a backup QB.

Bills +3 vs. EAGLES ✋ – I’m part betting on the Bills because I’ll be rooting for them, but also because I think they’re a better team than 6-5. They’re right there with the Eagles on point differential for the season.

Teaser +575 ❌ – Came within a hair of winning this one. Who’d have thought the Bills would score 34 and Allen would only throw 1 TD pass? Fucking gambling.
- Bills moneyline
- Stefon Diggs TD
- Stefon Diggs 67.5+ receiving yards
- Josh Allen 1.5+ ADs

Chiefs -9 vs. RAIDERS ✅ – After that brutal loss to the Eagles I expect KC to come roaring back, especially on the passing game. My only regret here is that I didn’t double-down with a live moneyline bet after the Chiefs fell behind 14-0.

Ravens -3 vs. CHARGERS ✅ – The Chargers are fun to watch, but you tend to watch them lose. The Ravens are starting to look like legit contenders this year.

Parlay +4542 ❌ – This is like buying a lottery ticket but I gotta dig out of this season hole somehow.
- Steelers -2.5
- Jaguars -1.5
- Patriots -4.5
- Chiefs -9
- Bills +3
- Ravens -3

Teaser +600 ❌ – A cover-my-ass lottery ticket. Never betting on the Patriots again. Almost had it.
- Steelers +3.5
- Jaguars +4.5
- Patriots +1.5
- Chiefs -3
- Bills +9
- Ravens +3

Teaser: +160 2× bet ✅ ✅ ✅ – A cover-my-ass’s covering of my ass.
- Chiefs -3
- Bills +9
- Ravens +3

Season to date (weeks 1-10): 21-37-1 This week: 8-7-1

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics. And at 17-28-1 for the season thus far, it’s time to call it: I feel like I have the NFL right where I want it.

Thursday Night Football:

Bengals +3.5 vs. RAVENS ❌
Bengals-RAVENS Under 46 ❌ – Two separate straight bets, not a parlay. Stat of the week: primetime game unders are 25-7 this season and 164-102-3 since 2019. I’ve been getting killed this season betting my gut feelings, so I might as well bet the trend on this one. (Also: Burrow is a career 36-21-1 against the spread.) Sidenote: Great to see Al Michaels finally get a good game to call. Man if I were a head coach I’d be fired after that game.

Sunday: Picking a bunch of home favorites, and, to hell with it, the Cowboys:

Cowboys -11 vs. PANTHERS ✅ — One thing the Cowboys have been really good at this season: running up the score against bad teams.

TEXANS -5.5 vs. Cardinals ❌

LIONS -8 vs. Bears ❌

BROWNS -2 vs. Steelers ✅

BILLS -8 vs. Jets ✅

Monday Night Football:

CHIEFS -2.5 vs. Eagles ❌

Season to date (weeks 1-10): 18-32-1 This week: 3-5

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics. And at 17-28-1 for the season thus far, it’s time to call it: I feel like I have the NFL right where I want it.

JAGUARS +3 vs. Niners ❌ – Spitball theory: it took all the gas out of the Niners’ tank to whip the mighty Cowboys last month. They haven’t looked good since. And I’ll reiterate my Doug Pederson Fan Club membership.

Browns +6 vs. RAVENS ✅ – Just a gut feeling that the Browns might keep it close.

BENGALS -5.5 vs. Texans 2× pick of the week ❌ ❌ – I got Joe Burrow fever. He was obviously hurt at the beginning of the season, and he’s all healed now, but I feel like these lines aren’t factoring that in.

BILLS -7 vs. Broncos ❌ – I was half tempted to wait until tomorrow to see if this would drop to 6.5, but half afraid it would go to 7.5, so I bet it now. No way the Bills come out of last week’s disappointing loss to the Bengals without a strong showing on MNF.

Season to date (weeks 1-9): 17-28-1 This week: 1-4

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Rams +3.5 vs. PACKERS ❌ – I think the Rams are the best bad team in the league.

Seahawks +6 vs. RAVENS ❌ – I’ll take the points.

Cowboys +3 vs. EAGLES 2× pick of the week ❌ ❌ – What else am I going to do? But seriously I like this Dallas defense a lot.

BENGALS -2 vs. Bills ✅ – Going with the hotter team.

Season to date (weeks 1-8): 16-24-1 This week: 1-4

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics. Took a beating last week – 1-6, yowza – but there’s point trying to dig out of a hole all at once. Not a lot of good games on the schedule this weekend.

Jaguars -2.5 vs. STEELERS 2× pick of the week ✅ ✅ – This should be a good fun tough game, but I continue to think Doug Pederson might be the best coach in the game right now. The Jags just know how to grind out wins in close games. I could see this being a real nail-biter.

COWBOYS -7 vs. Rams ✅ – I feel like Dak Prescott has turned into a classic Jekyll/Hyde QB. Some weeks he looks like a borderline all-pro; some weeks he looks completely lost. To me the key is whether he runs or not. When he’s stealing 2-3 first downs by scrambling on busted plays, the whole passing game opens up for Dallas. When he just sits, waiting in the pocket, they’re three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out.

CHIEFS -7 vs. Denver ❌ – Mahomes is ill with something, but word is he’s going to play. I’d say the whole Broncos squad has been ill with “sucking” all season, though.

Bengals at NINERS – Not betting this game. Just need to say that I think the 49ers are nuts for letting Brock Purdy play this week. Look what happened to Tua Tagovailoa last season when the Dolphins let him come back too soon after a concussion. It was scary. Even in baseball, Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo played through a concussion and he wasn’t right – he went from being one of the best hitters and smartest players in all of baseball to a guy who couldn’t hit and couldn’t remember how many outs there were mid-innings. I get how frustrating it is to be a premiere athlete whose body feels fine and mind feels sharp – you feel like you can play. But the evidence is overwhelming that concussions take weeks to recover from. I think it should be an open question whether Purdy should play next week, let alone today. If this were a playoff game, or a must-win game, that’s different. By why take a chance like this in the middle of the season when the 49ers have so much going for them? Boo hiss.

Season to date (weeks 1-7): 13-23-1
This week: 3-1

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Bills -7.5 vs. PATRIOTS 2x bet of the week ❌ ❌ – Let’s bet the trend that the wheels have completely fallen off the Patriots dynasty and they’re now, in fact, one of the league’s patsies. Let’s further bet the fact that as division rivals, the Bills would just love – love love love – to run up the score and humiliate Belichick. I’m almost tempted to take the Over on this one (41.5) but I’m too afraid the final score will be something like 35-3.

Browns -3.5 vs. COLTS ❌ – Browns made a serious case last week that they have the best defense in the league. Just brutal up front – in the backfield on running plays, in the QB’s face on passing plays.

Chargers +6 vs. CHIEFS ❌
Chargers-CHIEFS OVER 47.5 ✅– I just need something to root for in the 4:00pm late game window.

Dolphins +3 vs. EAGLES ❌
Dolphins-EAGLES OVER 52.5 ❌ – Dolphins are scoring 37 points per game, like they’re playing Madden, not real football. So even if the Eagles win I think 52.5 is a little low. Weather is good in Philly today too.

Season to date (weeks 1-6): 12-17-1 This week: 1-6 (ouch)

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

CHIEFS -11 vs. Broncos ✋

Seahawks +3 vs. BENGALS ❌

JAGS -3.5 vs. Colts ✅

Eagles -6.5 vs. JETS ❌ — I don’t get why this line is under 7. (I still don’t get why this line was under 7 — the Eagles blew that game.)

Cowboys -1.5 vs. CHARGERS ✅ — Genuinely wonder if the Cowboys ought not be considered the home team for this game. I expect 75 percent of fans to be rooting for them. (The crowd was definitely more on Dallas’s side. It’s good to be America’s Team.)

Season to date (weeks 1-5): 10-15
This week: 2-2-1

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Giants +12.5 vs. DOLPHINS ❌ – That’s just a mountain of points.

STEELERS +4.5 vs. Ravens ✅ – Going with my gut on this one, and going against my general rule to put a lot of weight on point differential early in the season. (Baltimore is +41; Pittsburgh an ugly -38.)

Chiefs -3.5 vs. VIKINGS ✅ – I don’t get why this line is so low.

Cowboys +3.5 vs. NINERS ❌ – The series record between the Cowboys and 49ers is 19-19-1.

Season to date (weeks 1-4): 8-13
This week: 2-2

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

BROWNS +2 vs. Ravens ❌

Commanders +9.5 vs. EAGLES ✅

BILLS -2.5 vs. Dolphins ✅

COWBOYS -6 vs. Pats ✅ – Will be weird seeing Zeke on other sideline.

Season to date (weeks 1-3): 5-12
This week: 3-1

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Broncos +6 vs. MIAMI ❌ – I love this pick. Denver is 0-2 but only -3 on point differential. They’re a grand total of a single field goal from being 2-0. Plus you have Sean Payton fighting to avoid the humiliation of starting 0-3. I like Denver to straight up win and love them getting +6.

JAGUARS -7.5 vs. Texans ❌ – Houston on point differential: -27; Jags: +2.

Pats +2.5 vs. JETS ✅ – I’ll keep betting on Belichick until the Pats win a game.

Cowboys -12.5 vs. CARDINALS 2x pick of the week ❌❌ – Dallas is +60 on point differential and they’re effectively playing a home game in Arizona. Dallas is cruising toward the Super Bowl and Arizona is tanking toward the #1 draft pick. Easy cover.

Rams +2.5 vs. BENGALS ❌ – I like Joe Burrow. Who doesn’t? The kid’s got it. But something is clearly wrong with the Bengals this year, and I’m going to bet against them until they straighten it out.

Season to date (weeks 1-2): 4-7
This week: 1-5

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

JAGS +3.5 vs. Chiefs ❌ — Still thinking Doug Pederson might be the best coach in the today’s NFL, and it’d be fun to see Mahomes and the Chiefs dig their way out of an 0-2 start to the season.

BILLS -7.5 vs. Raiders ✅ — Josh Allen had an absolutely horrendous game last week. I expect different today.

PATS over Dolphins +120 moneyline ❌ — I don’t think the Patriots are getting nearly enough credit for coming thisclose to beating the Eagles last week, and I think Tua and the Dolphins are getting too much credit for running up and down the field against the Chargers’ “defense”.

COWBOYS -8.5 vs. Jets ✅ — Run that score up, baby.

This week: 2-2
Season to date: 2-5

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Thursday Night:

CHIEFS -4 vs. Lions — ❌

Sunday:

STEELERS +2 vs. Niners — ❌

PATRIOTS +3.5 vs. Eagles — ❌ Let’s see what Belichick still has in the tank.

Jaguars -3.5 vs. COLTS — ✅ I dig Doug Pederson. Looking for a strong season from the Jags.

BRONCOS -3 vs. Raiders — ❌ Looking for a strong opening from Sean Payton, plus I’m sick of losing money betting on the Raiders.

BEARS -1.5 vs. Packers — The Bears have got to turn it around eventually, and there’s a good chance the Pack is lost without Rodgers. ❌

Cowboys over GIANTS -166 moneyline — ✅ In Dak we trust. (In McCarthy we don’t.)

This week: 2-5

Chiefs -4, easy money.

Chiefs over Eagles +100 moneyline ✅ – I’m not actually making this bet because back in the preseason I put a big bet on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl at +1000 odds. So I’ll sit tight with that bet on today’s winner. But if I didn’t already have that bet placed, I’d go big on the Chiefs moneyline. I think we’ve got a rare treat today: the two best teams in the NFL are facing off in the Super Bowl. That doesn’t happen often. Sometimes the two best teams are both in the same conference. Sometimes one of the best teams has a bad game and doesn’t make it this far. Sometimes it’s just luck. But here we are. When in doubt, I say bet the better QB, and that QB is Patrick Mahomes.

Chiefs-Eagles OVER 51 2x bet ✅ ✅ – My “bet the over in playoff games” strategy has fallen on its face, but I’m sticking with it. I see both teams getting to around 24, and one of them hitting 31.

Top prop bets:

• Travis Kelce first KC reception (+300) ✅ – Why not get things started with a quick 3-yard out pattern to Kelce?

• Travis Kelce first TD scorer (+700) ❌

• Non-QB touchdown pass (+1500) ❌ – You know Andy Reid has an entire book of trick plays, and Philly made the most famous such play five years ago. Try it again I say.

• Any FG/PAT hits the cross bar (+450) ✅ – One of my favorite props. Gives you something goofy to root for on every single kick.

2022 regular season final record: 43-35-4
Playoffs to date: 11-13
Super Bowl: 5-2

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Didn’t work last week (to say the least) but I’m sticking with my theory that it’s smart to bet the over in playoff games. Postgame comments in italics.

EAGLES -150 vs. Niners moneyline 3× bet to win 2 units ✅ ✅– Either the kid Purdy finishes the most remarkable run in “last guy picked in the draft” history, or the Cinderella story bursts. I’ll bet on the latter. He’s had a couple of near-INTs that defenses dropped the last few weeks. I smell a pick six today.

Niners-Eagles OVER 46 ❌

Bengals +1.5 vs CHIEFS ❌ – I’ll take healthy Burrow over a gimpy Mahomes. (But also: I have nice bet from before the season started for the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl – betting the Bengals here feels like a nice hedge.)

Bengals-Chiefs OVER 48 ❌ I’m thinking 34-28 Bengals.

2-pick teaser: Eagles +3.5 / Bengals +7.5 ✅

2022 regular season final record: 43-35-4
Playoffs to date: 8-10
This week: 3-3

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. I’m testing out a new theory: The league wants high-scoring games, and I think the refs call the games accordingly. So I’m just betting the over in every game through the Super Bowl. I’m also taking all 4 underdogs this week. Postgame comments in italics.

Saturday:

Jaguars +9.5 vs. CHIEFS ✅ – Look it’s the Chiefs. I like the Chiefs. I put a sizeable bet on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowls before the season started, and that bet is looking good. But we all know Andy Reid-coached teams often make should-be-blowouts close. And the Jaguars are fun! Fun fact: both coaches took the Eagles to the Super Bowl.

Jaguars-Chiefs OVER 52.5 ❌ – Like I wrote up top, I’m betting the over in every remaining playoff game. But shouldn’t this one be a couple points higher? 52.5 seems crazy low when the Chiefs are always a threat to score 40.

Giants +7.5 vs. EAGLES ❌ – Danny Jones, baby. He is hot and I think the Giants are playing exactly how underdogs should: with abandon. They’re not supposed to be here and they’re playing to win.

Giants-Eagles OVER 48.5 ❌

Sunday:

Bengals +6 vs. BILLS – ✅ I know the worry about the Bengals is their offensive line – injuries have more or less left them playing backups. But I still think the Bengals are likely to win this game. Josh Allen is reminding more and more of Tony Romo. I loved Romo as a player, but that style of throwing risky passes all game long doesn’t work great in the playoffs.

Bengals-Bills OVER 49 ❌

Cowboys +4 vs. NINERS – ❌ Feels like old times, seeing these two meet in the playoffs.

Cowboys-Niners OVER 46.5 ❌

2022 regular season final record: 43-35-4
Playoffs round 1: 6-4
This week: 2-6

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.

Saturday:

Seahawks +9.5 vs. NINERS ❌ – If I didn’t have a rule to bet every playoff game, I’d have stayed away from this one. I’m just leaning toward Pete Carroll maybe figuring out a way to slow the game down, keep it lowish-scoring, and maybe get Brock Purdy to finally look like a rookie.

JAGUARS +2.5 vs. Chargers ✅ – I think this should be a dynamite game. I’ll take the points along with home field and Doug Pederson as a proven big-game coach. This was a super-exciting comeback, but the Chargers’ clock management was so staggering bad in the second half, it made the Falcons’ collapse against the Patriots in the 2017 Super Bowl seem smart. If they had run the ball at all the Jags never would have time to finish the comeback.

Sunday:

Teaser: BILLS -7.5 vs. Dolphins + Giants +9 vs. VIKINGS 2× bet ❌ ❌ – I feel like the Bills are close to a lock to win by more than one touchdown, and this year’s Vikings are the kings of winning by close scores. Two days later as I write this note, and I still can’t believe the Bills didn’t crush Miami. Makes me doubt them against the Bengals next week.

BENGALS -8.5 vs. Ravens ❌ – The Ravens’ quarterback uncertainty makes this one feel like it ought be 10 or 10.5 points. Plus the Bengals might be the hottest team in the league right now, and Burrow can throw in cold weather.

BENGALS-Ravens over 40 2× bet ✅ ✅ — Sunday night add-on bet: Every over has hit so far this weekend so let’s jump on the trend.

Monday:

Cowboys over BUCCANEERS -140 moneyline ~3× bet to win 2× ✅ ✅ – I’ve got a bad feeling about this one: (1) Tom Brady; (1a) Brady has never lost to Dallas; (2) Dallas is only 1-4 on grass this year – theory being that the slower surface takes away their edge in athleticism at skill positions; (3) Dak Prescott has not been sharp – throwing too many INTs and often just plain missing open receivers. But, well, hope springs eternal, and I think the Cowboys pass rush could be in Brady’s face all game long. (If they lose, maybe Jerry Jones fires Mike McCarthy to hire Sean Payton? I’d take that as a consolation prize.)

Cowboys-BUCCANEERS OVER 40.5 ✅ – I jumped on this Over bet in the first quarter, after both teams went three-and-out on their first two possessions.

2022 regular season final record: 43-35-4

This week: 6-4

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Giants +15.5 vs. EAGLES ✅ ✅ 2x pick of the week – Fifteen and a half points!

BEARS +7 vs. Vikings ❌ — Going with my theory that the Vikes are, at best, a mediocre team that has gotten extraordinarily lucky this season.

Patriots +7.5 vs. BILLS ❌ — With a playoff berth on the line, can the Pats keep it within one score? I say yes. (Warning: I might be an idiot.)

Cowboys +135 vs. COMMANDERS moneyline ❌ – Placed this one midway through the first half after Dallas fell behind.

Season to date (weeks 1–17): 41-32-4
This week: 2-3

Regular season final record: 43-35-4

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Thursday Night:

Cowboys vs. TITANS +250 3-way parlay ✅ ✅ – With Dallas as 14-point favorites I needed some other way to bet on the game. Came up with this:

• Dallas moneyline ✔️
• CeeDee Lamb 75+ receiving yards ✔️
• Dak Prescott 250+ passing yards ✔️

Sunday:

Saints +5 vs. EAGLES ✅ – I think this is a questionable bet but I gotta pull for the Saints here, because if the Eagles lose this week and next, Dallas has a shot at the NFC East title and a home playoff game. I feel like this game locks Jalen Hurts in for MVP this season.

Jaguars -3.5 vs. TEXANS ✅ – Houston is playing well, but the Jags are, oddly enough, one of the hotter teams in the whole league, and the Jags are actually playing for a spot in the playoffs. Man, the Jags look good.

PATRIOTS -3 vs. Dolphins ❌ – In hindsight I think it’s pretty clear that those terrible interceptions Tagovailoa threw last week against the Packers weren’t an indication that he stinks as a QB or that Miami’s offensive schemes have been figured out, but rather just a side effect of Tagovailoa getting concussed again. But, still, the Dolphins look like a team that played their best football months ago. That leaves us with the Patriots, who, week to week, either look like a team that can squeeze out low-scoring wins, or, a team with a 70-year-old coach who has let the game pass him by. The stakes are high – this is effectively a playoff game for both teams. So I’ll bet on Belichick. Last-minute nearly-meaningless MiamI TD ruined this one for me.

PACKERS -3 vs. Vikings ✅ – The Vikes are 12-3 but have a point differential of just +5. That stat would look a little better if not for the 40-3 can of whoop ass Dallas laid on them in November, but still, I think the Vikes are a mediocre team with exception good fortune this season. The Packers seem like they have their act together now, and I think they really want that 7-seed playoff spot. (Weather does not seem like a factor – game time temperature in Green Bay should be in the mid 30’s). Stat of the year re: the Vikes’ 12-4 record.

SEAHAWKS +2 vs. Jets ✅ – Kind of a fascinating game. Both teams are 7-8. The Jets have lost 4 straight; the Seahawks 3 straight. Yet both teams are in the playoff hunt. I’ll take Seattle at home with the points.

Rams +6.5 vs. CHARGERS ❌ – I am not saying this line is wrong. The Chargers are 9-6, Herbert looks like one of the top QBs in the league, and the Rams (5-10) are finishing a historically bad season for a Super Bowl champ. But the Rams are the defending the champs. They’re proud, and their 51-14 pants of the Broncos last week shows that they’ve done anything but throw in the towel. Add to the mix Baker Mayfield, who is lighting it up. I’ll take a bet that the Rams can keep this close. This was a dumb bet.

Steelers vs. RAVENS +100 moneyline ✅ – I’ll take even money on the Steelers in this one. This was a smart bet.

Monday Night:

BENGALS +2.5 vs. Bills (NO BET) — I’ll take the points at home. Sure feels like these two teams might meet again in the playoffs, though, which makes me wonder how much they’ll show each other.

Season to date (weeks 1–16): 34-30-4
This week: 7-2