NFL 2022 Playoff Picks, Round 1

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.


Seahawks +9.5 vs. NINERS ❌ – If I didn’t have a rule to bet every playoff game, I’d have stayed away from this one. I’m just leaning toward Pete Carroll maybe figuring out a way to slow the game down, keep it lowish-scoring, and maybe get Brock Purdy to finally look like a rookie.

JAGUARS +2.5 vs. Chargers ✅ – I think this should be a dynamite game. I’ll take the points along with home field and Doug Pederson as a proven big-game coach. This was a super-exciting comeback, but the Chargers’ clock management was so staggering bad in the second half, it made the Falcons’ collapse against the Patriots in the 2017 Super Bowl seem smart. If they had run the ball at all the Jags never would have time to finish the comeback.


Teaser: BILLS -7.5 vs. Dolphins + Giants +9 vs. VIKINGS 2× bet ❌ ❌ – I feel like the Bills are close to a lock to win by more than one touchdown, and this year’s Vikings are the kings of winning by close scores. Two days later as I write this note, and I still can’t believe the Bills didn’t crush Miami. Makes me doubt them against the Bengals next week.

BENGALS -8.5 vs. Ravens ❌ – The Ravens’ quarterback uncertainty makes this one feel like it ought be 10 or 10.5 points. Plus the Bengals might be the hottest team in the league right now, and Burrow can throw in cold weather.

BENGALS-Ravens over 40 2× bet ✅ ✅ — Sunday night add-on bet: Every over has hit so far this weekend so let’s jump on the trend.


Cowboys over BUCCANEERS -140 moneyline ~3× bet to win 2× ✅ ✅ – I’ve got a bad feeling about this one: (1) Tom Brady; (1a) Brady has never lost to Dallas; (2) Dallas is only 1-4 on grass this year – theory being that the slower surface takes away their edge in athleticism at skill positions; (3) Dak Prescott has not been sharp – throwing too many INTs and often just plain missing open receivers. But, well, hope springs eternal, and I think the Cowboys pass rush could be in Brady’s face all game long. (If they lose, maybe Jerry Jones fires Mike McCarthy to hire Sean Payton? I’d take that as a consolation prize.)

Cowboys-BUCCANEERS OVER 40.5 ✅ – I jumped on this Over bet in the first quarter, after both teams went three-and-out on their first two possessions.

2022 regular season final record: 43-35-4

This week: 6-4