NFL 2023 Week 11 Picks

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics. And at 17-28-1 for the season thus far, it’s time to call it: I feel like I have the NFL right where I want it.

Thursday Night Football:

Bengals +3.5 vs. RAVENS
Bengals-RAVENS Under 46 ❌ – Two separate straight bets, not a parlay. Stat of the week: primetime game unders are 25-7 this season and 164-102-3 since 2019. I’ve been getting killed this season betting my gut feelings, so I might as well bet the trend on this one. (Also: Burrow is a career 36-21-1 against the spread.) Sidenote: Great to see Al Michaels finally get a good game to call. Man if I were a head coach I’d be fired after that game.

Sunday: Picking a bunch of home favorites, and, to hell with it, the Cowboys:

Cowboys -11 vs. PANTHERS ✅ — One thing the Cowboys have been really good at this season: running up the score against bad teams.

TEXANS -5.5 vs. Cardinals

LIONS -8 vs. Bears

BROWNS -2 vs. Steelers

BILLS -8 vs. Jets

Monday Night Football:

CHIEFS -2.5 vs. Eagles

Season to date (weeks 1-10): 18-32-1 This week: 3-5