NFL 2023 Week 14 Picks

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics. Finally hit a teaser last week, so getting even on the season is maybe within sight.

Thursday Night Football:

Pats-STEELERS UNDER 30 ❌ – This is the lowest NFL over/under since 2005, but deservedly so. My god: the Pats are scoring an average of just 12.3 points per game this season; the Steelers just 16. But it gets worse. Here are the Pats’s scores from the last three weeks: 6-10 (Colts), 7-10 (Giants), 0-6 (Chargers). The Steelers over the last three weeks: 10-24 (Cardinals), 16-10 (Bengals), 10-13 (Browns). Both teams are playing backup quarterbacks (although for the Pats, that’s probably an upgrade), and both teams have defenses that are kicking ass. So I’m not overthinking it: just betting the Under. Welp, this was a bust, but if I had it to do all over again I’d have bet 2× on the Under. If these teams played 10 times I don’t think they’d go over 30 more than twice.


Texans -3.5 vs. JETS ❌ – C’mon, it’s the Jets.

Jaguars-BROWNS OVER 37.5 ✅ – Who doesn’t have Joe Flacco fever?

Rams to beat RAVENS +290 moneyline ❌ – Rams are playing pretty good the last month. Lost on an overtime punt return. Jiminy.

Seahawks +14 vs. NINERS ✅ – So many points.

Bills-CHIEFS OVER 49 ❌ – I think it’s the Chiefs’ fault this over/under isn’t higher, but their offense is going to break out eventually.

Teaser +260
- Rams +13.5 win
- Texans +2.5 fucking Jets!
- Seahawks +20 win
- Bills +8 win

Sunday Night Football:

COWBOYS to beat Eagles -166 moneyline
COWBOYS -3 vs. Eagles ✅ — Had to take this at -120 to get it down from 3.5.

Teaser +700
- Cowboys moneyline
- Dak Prescott 275+ yards passing
- Dak Prescott 14.5+ yards rushing
- CeeDee Lamb 80+ yards receiving
- Tony Pollard 58.5+ yards rushing

Season to date (weeks 1-13): 38-47-2 Last week: 9-3
This week: 4-6