NFL 2022 Week 17 Picks

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Thursday Night:

Cowboys vs. TITANS +250 3-way parlay ✅ ✅ – With Dallas as 14-point favorites I needed some other way to bet on the game. Came up with this:

  • Dallas moneyline ✔️
  • CeeDee Lamb 75+ receiving yards ✔️
  • Dak Prescott 250+ passing yards ✔️


Saints +5 vs. EAGLES ✅ – I think this is a questionable bet but I gotta pull for the Saints here, because if the Eagles lose this week and next, Dallas has a shot at the NFC East title and a home playoff game. I feel like this game locks Jalen Hurts in for MVP this season.

Jaguars -3.5 vs. TEXANS ✅ – Houston is playing well, but the Jags are, oddly enough, one of the hotter teams in the whole league, and the Jags are actually playing for a spot in the playoffs. Man, the Jags look good.

PATRIOTS -3 vs. Dolphins ❌ – In hindsight I think it’s pretty clear that those terrible interceptions Tagovailoa threw last week against the Packers weren’t an indication that he stinks as a QB or that Miami’s offensive schemes have been figured out, but rather just a side effect of Tagovailoa getting concussed again. But, still, the Dolphins look like a team that played their best football months ago. That leaves us with the Patriots, who, week to week, either look like a team that can squeeze out low-scoring wins, or, a team with a 70-year-old coach who has let the game pass him by. The stakes are high – this is effectively a playoff game for both teams. So I’ll bet on Belichick. Last-minute nearly-meaningless MiamI TD ruined this one for me.

PACKERS -3 vs. Vikings ✅ – The Vikes are 12-3 but have a point differential of just +5. That stat would look a little better if not for the 40-3 can of whoop ass Dallas laid on them in November, but still, I think the Vikes are a mediocre team with exception good fortune this season. The Packers seem like they have their act together now, and I think they really want that 7-seed playoff spot. (Weather does not seem like a factor – game time temperature in Green Bay should be in the mid 30’s). Stat of the year re: the Vikes’ 12-4 record.

SEAHAWKS +2 vs. Jets ✅ – Kind of a fascinating game. Both teams are 7-8. The Jets have lost 4 straight; the Seahawks 3 straight. Yet both teams are in the playoff hunt. I’ll take Seattle at home with the points.

Rams +6.5 vs. CHARGERS ❌ – I am not saying this line is wrong. The Chargers are 9-6, Herbert looks like one of the top QBs in the league, and the Rams (5-10) are finishing a historically bad season for a Super Bowl champ. But the Rams are the defending the champs. They’re proud, and their 51-14 pants of the Broncos last week shows that they’ve done anything but throw in the towel. Add to the mix Baker Mayfield, who is lighting it up. I’ll take a bet that the Rams can keep this close. This was a dumb bet.

Steelers vs. RAVENS +100 moneyline ✅ – I’ll take even money on the Steelers in this one. This was a smart bet.

Monday Night:

BENGALS +2.5 vs. Bills (NO BET) — I’ll take the points at home. Sure feels like these two teams might meet again in the playoffs, though, which makes me wonder how much they’ll show each other.

Season to date (weeks 1–16): 34-30-4
This week: 7-2