NFL 2023 Playoffs: Super Bowl 58

Fucking-A man, it’s America’s National Gambling Day. Let’s win some money.

Chiefs +2 vs. Frisco 6× bet— Always bet the better QB. It’s that simple.

Parlay +850
- Purdy 1+ INTs - Mahomes UNDER 278.5 yards passing
- Kelce 78.5+ receiving yards
- Kelce 6.5+ receptions

Parlay +360
- UNDER 47
- KC + 1.5 - Mahomes under 263.5 yds passing

NFL 2023 Playoffs: Conference Championships

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.

Chiefs +4.5 vs. RAVENS ✅ – I think there’s a high likelihood of the Ravens winning but the Chiefs covering. I like Mahomes to win any big game, but I love Mahomes to keep the Chiefs close in any big game. Let’s say the Ravens are up by 10 with 7 minutes to play. Do you really think the Chiefs aren’t going to score a touchdown to make it 3?

Parlay +850
+ Mahomes 250+ passing yards
- Mahomes 25+ rushing yards
+ Lamar 200+ passing yards
+ Lamar 50+ rushing yards
- Chiefs OVER 20.5 points
- Ravens OVER 20.5 points

Teaser -120
• Chiefs +10.5 vs. RAVENS
• Lions +13.5 vs. NINERS

Lions +7 vs. NINERS
Lions +280 moneyline – What an incredible Cinderella story. This unknown comes outta nowhere to lead the pack at Augusta. He’s at the final hole. He’s about 455 yards away, he’s gonna hit about a two iron, I think…

Parlay +450
• Lions moneyline
• Purdy 1+ INTs

Season to date (regular season + playoffs): 78-104-3
This week: TBD

NFL 2023 Playoffs: Divisional Round

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.


RAVENS -10 vs. Texans ✅ – Every year there’s one underdog that surprises everyone in the first round, and then falls back to earth in the second. I think that’s the these young Texans this year.

Parlay +415
+ Lamar Jackson: 40+ rushing yards
- Lamar Jackson: 225+ passing yards
- CJ Stroud: 225+ passing yards

Teaser -120 2× bet ✅ ✅
+ RAVENS -4 vs. Texans • Packers +16 vs. NINERS

Parlay +625 2× bet ❌ ❌ — Praise Jeebus let Dallas’s defense last week have been a legit test for this Packers offense.
+ Packers +9.5 vs. NINERS
- Jordan Love: 250+ passing yards
+ Aaron Jones: 80+ rushing yards

Parlay +800
+ Packers +10.5
- Jordan Love: 250+ passing yards
- Christian McCaffrey: 100+ rushing yards
+ Christian McCaffrey: anytime TD scorer


LIONS -4.5 vs. Bucs ✅ — I got a lower spread because I waited until after the game started to get this in.

Parlay +256
+ LIONS -3.5 vs. Bucs
- BILLS -2.5 vs. Chiefs

BILLS -2.5 vs. Chiefs ❌ — This is a great match, and probably the best rivalry in the league right now. I’m just betting the Bills because I’m rooting for them. That’s it.

Parlay +800
- BILLS moneyline
+ OVER 39.5 total points
- Mahomes: 250+ passing yards
+ Mahomes: 1.5+ TD passes
- Allen: 227.5+ passing yards
+ Allen: 25+ rushing yards

Parlay +1200
- BILLS -2.5
- Mahomes: 250+ passing yards
+ Mahomes: 1.5+ TD passes
- Allen: 225+ passing yards
+ Allen: anytime TD scorer

Season to date (regular season + playoffs): 74-96-3
This week: 4-8

NFL 2023 Playoffs: Wildcard Weekend

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.


Browns -2.5 vs. TEXANS 2× bet ❌ ❌ – The Browns scored just under 22 points per game pre-Flacco. With Flacco, they’re averaging just over 29. That’s a full TD per game. Also, Tom Brady holds the NFL record for road playoff wins: 7. But he’s tied for that record with … Joe Fucking Flacco. That’s right – if the Browns win, Joe Flacco becomes the winningest road quarterback in NFL history. (Super Bowls obviously don’t count as road games.) CJ Stroud impressed last week on national TV against Indy, but the Texans as a team did not. Indy should have won that game but choked – on the field and especially on the sidelines – in the final 5 minutes. Also, I think the Browns have a championship-caliber defense, and will put pressure on Stroud he won’t handle.

Parlay +750
- Browns -0.5 first half
- Browns win game
- Flacco: 2+ passing TDs
+ Flacco: 250+ passing yards
- Amari Cooper: 77+ receiving yards

CHIEFS -4.5 vs. Dolphins 2× bet ✅ ✅
CHIEFS -13 vs. Dolphins ✅ ✅ +243 alternate line – First, Miami’s defense is seriously banged up. Second, weather. I read up on it and it turns out that warm-weather and dome teams actually perform pretty well against the point spread in cold weather. But Tua Tagovailoa? 0-6 in sub-45°F games, with miserable stats. There’s a paper tiger aspect to the Dolphins too: they only beat one playoff team all season, a 22-20 squeaker over Dallas on Christmas Eve. (That said, the Chiefs only beat one playoff team, too – the Dolphins, 21-14, back on November 5.)


COWBOYS -7 vs. Packers 2× bet ❌ ❌ – In a sense the Cowboys can’t lose today. Either they win the game and head to the divisional round with another home game, or the Joneses fire McCarthy and Bill Belichick comes to Big D, just like his mentor Bill Parcells did. (We won’t talk about how many Super Bowls Parcells went to in Dallas.) The Packers of the last two months are a scary team. They opened a serious can of whip-ass on Detroit on national TV on Thanksgiving. Jordan Love’s numbers have been amazing. But Dallas should win this game handily. The soft spot in Green Bay’s defense is the middle of the field, and Dak Prescott loves throwing over the middle, and CeeDee Lamb loves running routes up the middle.

COWBOYS +120 moneyline ❌ ❌ – Throwing good money after bad while Green Bay is sitting on a 14-0 lead.

Parlay +500 ❌ – If you told me the other 6 legs of this parlay would hit, I’d have said Dallas was a lock to win the game. But they got killed. Just humiliated. What a crazy game.
- Cowboys moneyline
+ Cowboys over 27.5 points
+ Prescott: 255+ passing yards
+ Prescott: 2+ passing TDs
+ Lamb: 85+ receiving yards
+ Ferguson: 40+ receiving yards
+ Pollard: 50+ rushing yards

Rams +3 vs. LIONS 2× bet ✅ ✅
Rams -6.5 alternate line (+300) ❌ – LaPorta being out is a killer for the Lions. Not a national household name yet but he was the best tight end in the NFL this year, and I think the Lions’ best receiver period. Plus, if anyone knows Jared Goff’s weaknesses, it’s Sean McVay. Well, LaPorta played – and caught a huge TD. Great game though.

Parlay +700
+ Rams +3
+ Stafford: 2+ passing TDs
+ Stafford: 279+ passing yards
- Kupp: 60+ receiving yards
+ Nacua: 70+ receiving yards


Parlay -135
+ BILLS -3 (alternate spread) vs. Steelers
- UNDER 44 total points (alternate O/U)

Parlay +220
+ BILLS -7
- Josh Allen: 225+ passing yards
+ Stefon Diggs: 50+ receiving yards

Parlay +600
+ BILLS -9.5
- Josh Allen: 225+ passing yards
+ Josh Allen: anytime TD scorer
- Stefon Diggs: 67+ receiving yards

BUCS +2.5 vs. Eagles ✅ – Jalen Hurts has been playing badly, now his middle finger is all messed up on his throwing hand, and AJ Brown – the Eagles’ best receiver by far – is out of the game with an injury. The Eagles secondary seemingly can’t cover anyone, and Baker Mayfield looks pretty good. I like the Bucs to win and Mayfield to have a standout day.

Parlay +550
+ BUCS +7 (alternate line)
+ Mayfield: 275+ passing yards
- Chris Godwin: 50+ receiving yards
- Mike Evans: 70+ receiving yards

Parlay +1200
+ BUCS: +2.5
+ Mayfield: 2+ TD passes
+ Mayfield: 275+ yards passing
- Hurts: anytime TD scorer

Season to date (regular season): 67-81-3
This week: 7-15

NFL 2023 Week 18 Picks

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics. Not looking good for a winning regular season.


RAVENS to beat Steelers +130 moneyline

Texans -1 vs. COLTS ✅ – Bet the better quarterback.

Parlay +675 ❌ — This one came within a missed PAT and 11 passing yards of hitting.
+ Texans moneyline
- Texans OVER 23.5 points
+ Texans OVER 2.5 TDs
- C.J. Stroud 275+ passing yards
+ Nico Collins 80.5+ receiving yards
+ Dalton Schultz 40+ receiving yards


Buccaneers -4.5 at PANTHERS ✅ — It’s a win-and-in for the Bucs and another “throw your drink at angry fans” game for the Panthers.

Jags -3.5 vs. TITANS ❌ — I’ve lost a small fortune betting the Jags this season but I think they’ll win big here. Welp, now I’ve lost a larger fortune betting the Jags.

GIANTS to beat Eagles +190 moneyline ✅ ✅ — This is the Giants’ “playoff”, a chance to beat their despised division rival. And the Eagles have stunk for two months.

Bears to beat PACKERS +130 moneyline ❌ — Same thing for the Bears as the Giants: a season-ending chance to spoil things for a rival. Only difference is the Packers don’t stink like the Eagles do.

Cowboys -13 vs. COMMANDERS — ✅ Dallas knows how to win big.

Dak Prescott: 271.5+ passing yards

Cowboys-COMMANDERS Parlay +800
+ Cowboys -7.5
- Dak Prescott 11.5+ rushing yards (Fuuuuuuck)
+ CeeDee Lamb 80+ receiving yards
+ Brandin Cooks 25+ receiving yards
+ Jake Ferguson 25+ receiving yards
+ Tony Pollard 50+ rushing yards
+ Dallas 3.5+ TDs

Bills-DOLPHINS Parlay +900
- Over 47.5 total points
+ Bills 2.5+ TDs - Tua 1.5+ TD passes
- Tua 250+ passing yards
+ Allen 1.5+ TD passes
+ Allen 243.5+ passing yards
+ Stefan Diggs 63.5+ receiving yards

Season to date (weeks 1-17): 61-75-3
This week: 6-6

NFL 2023 Week 17 Picks

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Thursday Night Football:

BROWNS -7 vs. Jets ✅ – Joe Flacco, baby. (Second week in a row I forgot to blog my TNF pick before the game but you know I’m good for it.)


COWBOYS -4.5 vs. Lions 2× bet ❌ ❌
COWBOYS to beat Lions -225 moneyline 4× bet ✅ ✅ – We’re not going to dig out of this season’s hole sitting on our hands.

Parlay +575
- Cowboys moneyline
- Dak: 250+ passing yards
x Dak: 15.5+ rushing yards
- Lamb: 80+ receiving yards
x Pollard: 57.5 rushing yards


Dolphins to beat RAVENS +145 moneyline

Rams -6.5 vs. GIANTS

Teaser +160 2× bet ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
- Pats +20 vs. BILLS
- BEARS +3.5 vs Falcons
- Rams 0 vs. GIANTS

CHIEFS -5.5 vs. Bengals 2× bet ✅ ✅

Season to date (weeks 1-16): 52-70-3
This week: 9-5

NFL 2023 Week 16 Picks

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Thursday Night Football:

RAMS -4 vs. Saints ✅ – Rams are kicking ass in the second half of the season. (Forgot to post this until today (Saturday), so you’ll have to take my word for it, but you know I don’t fib about these bets. I mean, christ, I’m 15 bets under .500 for the season.)


Bengals -3 vs. STEELERS ❌ – The Bengals have a QB problem but the Steelers have a QB fiasco. All credit to Mason Rudolph: the kid looked great and was dropping dimes to his receivers all game.

Bills -12.5 vs. CHARGERS ❌ – The Chargers are toast, done, and the Bills are hot and healthy. Jiminy christ.


JETS -3 vs. Commanders ❌ – The Jets are fighting and the Commanders have packed their bags for the off-season.

Lions -3 vs. VIKINGS ✅ – I’ve never lost money betting on Jared Goff. Oh, wait…

Cowboys +1 vs. DOLPHINS ❌ ❌ 2× pick of the week – Dallas has been rebounding after each loss this season, and let’s face it, Miami is a fraud with a weak schedule.

Teaser +400 ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
- JETS +3
- Lions +3.5
- Seahawks +3
- BEARS +2
- Cowboys +7

Monday 🎄:

Teaser +160 ❌ ❌ 2× bet
- CHIEFS -4.5
- Giants +20
- Ravens +12.5

Raiders-CHIEFS OVER 39.5 ❌ — Do we bet the over/under thinking about the Raiders that lost a 3-0 game to the Vikings two weeks ago, or the team that scored 63 against the Chargers last week? I say go optimistic.

Teaser +360
- CHIEFS -10.5
- Over 41.5
- Travis Swift to score a TD

*That’s what I get for banking on the Chiefs. OK, starting over at 4pm:

Giants over EAGLES +650 moneyline ❌ – No regrets, this almost hit.

Parlay +600
- Giants +14.5
- Tommy Cutlets 1+ passing TDs
- Tommy Cutlets 224.5+ passing yards

Teaser -130 2.5× bet ✅ ✅
- Giants +20
- Ravens +12.5

Season to date (weeks 1-15): 44-59-3
This week: 8-11

NFL 2023 Week 15 Picks

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.


BENGALS -3 vs. Vikings ✋ — I just don’t see it happening for the Vikes down the stretch.

COLTS -1 vs. Steelers ✅ — Feel like the wheels are coming off the bus for the Steelers. Mitch Trubisky trubiskied this one good.

Broncos +5 vs. LIONS ❌ — The Lions just got smoked by the Bears. And the last time they played on national TV, Thanksgiving, they embarrassed themselves against the Packers. Feels like a team of big-game chokers. Meanwhile, Denver has looked like a good team since October. Jiminy was this a beatdown or what?

Teaser +160
- Bengals +3
- Colts +5
- Broncos +11


Giants +6 vs. SAINTS ❌ — Tommy Cutlets! I should have my goddamn head examined for betting on this team of misfits.

RAMS -6.5 vs. Commanders ✅ — The Rams are playing great the last two months, fighting for the playoffs, and the Commanders smell like a team that’s given up for the year.

Cowboys +2 vs. BILLS ❌ — The Bills are better than their record indicates, but they’re not top-tier. Weather forecast looks downright warm for December in Buffalo: high 40s. (Would be a fun prop bet if they set the over/under as the temperature at kickoff.) Also: Dallas has a 21-game winning streak on artificial turf.

Teaser +600
- DOLPHINS -1 vs. Jets
- Chiefs -4 @ PATS
- Giants +12 @ SAINTS
- RAMS -0.5 vs. Commanders
- 49ers -5.5 @ CARDINALS
- Cowboys +8 @ BILLS

Teaser +525
- Cowboys moneyline
- Dak Prescott 2+ passing TDs
- Dak Prescott 229.5+ passing yards
- Josh Allen 229.5+ passing yards
- Tony Pollard 39.5+ rushing yards
- CeeDee Lamb 69.5+ receiving yards

Season to date (weeks 1-14): 42-53-2 Last week: 4-6
This week: 2-6-1

NFL 2023 Week 14 Picks

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics. Finally hit a teaser last week, so getting even on the season is maybe within sight.

Thursday Night Football:

Pats-STEELERS UNDER 30 ❌ – This is the lowest NFL over/under since 2005, but deservedly so. My god: the Pats are scoring an average of just 12.3 points per game this season; the Steelers just 16. But it gets worse. Here are the Pats’s scores from the last three weeks: 6-10 (Colts), 7-10 (Giants), 0-6 (Chargers). The Steelers over the last three weeks: 10-24 (Cardinals), 16-10 (Bengals), 10-13 (Browns). Both teams are playing backup quarterbacks (although for the Pats, that’s probably an upgrade), and both teams have defenses that are kicking ass. So I’m not overthinking it: just betting the Under. Welp, this was a bust, but if I had it to do all over again I’d have bet 2× on the Under. If these teams played 10 times I don’t think they’d go over 30 more than twice.


Texans -3.5 vs. JETS ❌ – C’mon, it’s the Jets.

Jaguars-BROWNS OVER 37.5 ✅ – Who doesn’t have Joe Flacco fever?

Rams to beat RAVENS +290 moneyline ❌ – Rams are playing pretty good the last month. Lost on an overtime punt return. Jiminy.

Seahawks +14 vs. NINERS ✅ – So many points.

Bills-CHIEFS OVER 49 ❌ – I think it’s the Chiefs’ fault this over/under isn’t higher, but their offense is going to break out eventually.

Teaser +260
- Rams +13.5 win
- Texans +2.5 fucking Jets!
- Seahawks +20 win
- Bills +8 win

Sunday Night Football:

COWBOYS to beat Eagles -166 moneyline
COWBOYS -3 vs. Eagles ✅ — Had to take this at -120 to get it down from 3.5.

Teaser +700
- Cowboys moneyline
- Dak Prescott 275+ yards passing
- Dak Prescott 14.5+ yards rushing
- CeeDee Lamb 80+ yards receiving
- Tony Pollard 58.5+ yards rushing

Season to date (weeks 1-13): 38-47-2 Last week: 9-3
This week: 4-6

NFL 2023 Week 13 Picks

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Thursday Night Football:

COWBOYS -9 vs. Seahawks

COWBOYS -5.5 vs. Seahawks ✅ – Tacked on live after the Seahawks got lucky and took a 7-3 lead.

COWBOYS over Seahawks -250 moneyline ✅ – Tacked on at halftime.

Parlay +320: ❌ – Lost by one point on the alternate line.
- COWBOYS -7 alternate line
- Dak Prescott 1.5+ passing TDs
- Dak Prescott 283.5+ passing yards
- CeeDee Lamb 70+ receiving yards


Dolphins -8.5 vs. COMMANDERS ✅ — Ron Rivera has his bags packed.

Lions -4 vs. SAINTS ✅ — Looking for Detroit to bounce back after their embarrassing game on Thanksgiving.

Chargers -4.5 vs. PATS ✅ — Time to dance on Belichick’s grave. 6-0! What an absolute turd of a football game. Can you even imagine sitting in the cold windy stands in Foxborough to watch this?

Broncos -3 vs. TEXANS ❌ — Play this many good games in a row and I believe.


Teaser +400 2× bet ❌ ❌
- Steelers +0
- Miami -2.5
- Broncos +9.5
- Eagles +9
- Chiefs +1

Teaser +450 1.1× bet ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
- Niners-EAGLES over 46.5
- McCaffrey 1+ TDs
- Purdy 254.5+ passing yards
- Hurts 236.5+ passing yards

Season to date (weeks 1-10): 29-44-2 This week: 9-3

NFL 2023 Week 12 Picks

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.


TEASER: 2× bet ❌ ❌
LIONS -2.5 vs. Packers
COWBOYS -7.5 vs. Commanders — Gotta get some skin in this game. Teaser feels right.

COWBOYS -13.5 vs. Commanders ✅ — Let’s see how far Dallas can stretch this “run up the score against bad teams” thing. Also: most interesting stat I’ve read this week is that Ron Rivera has only ever had two winning seasons as a head coach. He’s on pace to get fired before this season ends.

COWBOYS -7.5 vs. Commanders
SEAHAWKS +13 vs. San Fran — This will look pretty smart if Dallas cruises.

Black Friday:

Dolphins -9.5 vs. JETS

Parlay +375: ❌ – Came close on this, but somehow Miami scored 34 with Tua only throwing 1 TD.
- Dolphins -9.5
- T. Hill: 80+ receiving yards
- Tagovailoa: 2+ passing TDs


Steelers -2.5 vs. BENGALS ✅ – Always bet against a backup QB.

Bills +3 vs. EAGLES ✋ – I’m part betting on the Bills because I’ll be rooting for them, but also because I think they’re a better team than 6-5. They’re right there with the Eagles on point differential for the season.

Teaser +575 ❌ – Came within a hair of winning this one. Who’d have thought the Bills would score 34 and Allen would only throw 1 TD pass? Fucking gambling.
- Bills moneyline
- Stefon Diggs TD
- Stefon Diggs 67.5+ receiving yards
- Josh Allen 1.5+ ADs

Chiefs -9 vs. RAIDERS ✅ – After that brutal loss to the Eagles I expect KC to come roaring back, especially on the passing game. My only regret here is that I didn’t double-down with a live moneyline bet after the Chiefs fell behind 14-0.

Ravens -3 vs. CHARGERS ✅ – The Chargers are fun to watch, but you tend to watch them lose. The Ravens are starting to look like legit contenders this year.

Parlay +4542 ❌ – This is like buying a lottery ticket but I gotta dig out of this season hole somehow.
- Steelers -2.5
- Jaguars -1.5
- Patriots -4.5
- Chiefs -9
- Bills +3
- Ravens -3

Teaser +600 ❌ – A cover-my-ass lottery ticket. Never betting on the Patriots again. Almost had it.
- Steelers +3.5
- Jaguars +4.5
- Patriots +1.5
- Chiefs -3
- Bills +9
- Ravens +3

Teaser: +160 2× bet ✅ ✅ ✅ – A cover-my-ass’s covering of my ass.
- Chiefs -3
- Bills +9
- Ravens +3

Season to date (weeks 1-10): 21-37-1 This week: 8-7-1

NFL 2023 Week 11 Picks

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics. And at 17-28-1 for the season thus far, it’s time to call it: I feel like I have the NFL right where I want it.

Thursday Night Football:

Bengals +3.5 vs. RAVENS
Bengals-RAVENS Under 46 ❌ – Two separate straight bets, not a parlay. Stat of the week: primetime game unders are 25-7 this season and 164-102-3 since 2019. I’ve been getting killed this season betting my gut feelings, so I might as well bet the trend on this one. (Also: Burrow is a career 36-21-1 against the spread.) Sidenote: Great to see Al Michaels finally get a good game to call. Man if I were a head coach I’d be fired after that game.

Sunday: Picking a bunch of home favorites, and, to hell with it, the Cowboys:

Cowboys -11 vs. PANTHERS ✅ — One thing the Cowboys have been really good at this season: running up the score against bad teams.

TEXANS -5.5 vs. Cardinals

LIONS -8 vs. Bears

BROWNS -2 vs. Steelers

BILLS -8 vs. Jets

Monday Night Football:

CHIEFS -2.5 vs. Eagles

Season to date (weeks 1-10): 18-32-1 This week: 3-5

NFL 2023 Week 10 Picks

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics. And at 17-28-1 for the season thus far, it’s time to call it: I feel like I have the NFL right where I want it.

JAGUARS +3 vs. Niners ❌ – Spitball theory: it took all the gas out of the Niners’ tank to whip the mighty Cowboys last month. They haven’t looked good since. And I’ll reiterate my Doug Pederson Fan Club membership.

Browns +6 vs. RAVENS ✅ – Just a gut feeling that the Browns might keep it close.

BENGALS -5.5 vs. Texans 2× pick of the week ❌ ❌ – I got Joe Burrow fever. He was obviously hurt at the beginning of the season, and he’s all healed now, but I feel like these lines aren’t factoring that in.

BILLS -7 vs. Broncos ❌ – I was half tempted to wait until tomorrow to see if this would drop to 6.5, but half afraid it would go to 7.5, so I bet it now. No way the Bills come out of last week’s disappointing loss to the Bengals without a strong showing on MNF.

Season to date (weeks 1-9): 17-28-1 This week: 1-4

NFL 2023 Week 9 Picks

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Rams +3.5 vs. PACKERS ❌ – I think the Rams are the best bad team in the league.

Seahawks +6 vs. RAVENS ❌ – I’ll take the points.

Cowboys +3 vs. EAGLES 2× pick of the week ❌ ❌ – What else am I going to do? But seriously I like this Dallas defense a lot.

BENGALS -2 vs. Bills ✅ – Going with the hotter team.

Season to date (weeks 1-8): 16-24-1 This week: 1-4

NFL 2023 Week 8 Picks

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics. Took a beating last week – 1-6, yowza – but there’s point trying to dig out of a hole all at once. Not a lot of good games on the schedule this weekend.

Jaguars -2.5 vs. STEELERS 2× pick of the week ✅ ✅ – This should be a good fun tough game, but I continue to think Doug Pederson might be the best coach in the game right now. The Jags just know how to grind out wins in close games. I could see this being a real nail-biter.

COWBOYS -7 vs. Rams ✅ – I feel like Dak Prescott has turned into a classic Jekyll/Hyde QB. Some weeks he looks like a borderline all-pro; some weeks he looks completely lost. To me the key is whether he runs or not. When he’s stealing 2-3 first downs by scrambling on busted plays, the whole passing game opens up for Dallas. When he just sits, waiting in the pocket, they’re three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out.

CHIEFS -7 vs. Denver ❌ – Mahomes is ill with something, but word is he’s going to play. I’d say the whole Broncos squad has been ill with “sucking” all season, though.

Bengals at NINERS – Not betting this game. Just need to say that I think the 49ers are nuts for letting Brock Purdy play this week. Look what happened to Tua Tagovailoa last season when the Dolphins let him come back too soon after a concussion. It was scary. Even in baseball, Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo played through a concussion and he wasn’t right – he went from being one of the best hitters and smartest players in all of baseball to a guy who couldn’t hit and couldn’t remember how many outs there were mid-innings. I get how frustrating it is to be a premiere athlete whose body feels fine and mind feels sharp – you feel like you can play. But the evidence is overwhelming that concussions take weeks to recover from. I think it should be an open question whether Purdy should play next week, let alone today. If this were a playoff game, or a must-win game, that’s different. By why take a chance like this in the middle of the season when the 49ers have so much going for them? Boo hiss.

Season to date (weeks 1-7): 13-23-1
This week: 3-1

NFL 2023 Week 7 Picks

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Bills -7.5 vs. PATRIOTS 2x bet of the week ❌ ❌ – Let’s bet the trend that the wheels have completely fallen off the Patriots dynasty and they’re now, in fact, one of the league’s patsies. Let’s further bet the fact that as division rivals, the Bills would just love – love love love – to run up the score and humiliate Belichick. I’m almost tempted to take the Over on this one (41.5) but I’m too afraid the final score will be something like 35-3.

Browns -3.5 vs. COLTS ❌ – Browns made a serious case last week that they have the best defense in the league. Just brutal up front – in the backfield on running plays, in the QB’s face on passing plays.

Chargers +6 vs. CHIEFS
Chargers-CHIEFS OVER 47.5 ✅– I just need something to root for in the 4:00pm late game window.

Dolphins +3 vs. EAGLES
Dolphins-EAGLES OVER 52.5 ❌ – Dolphins are scoring 37 points per game, like they’re playing Madden, not real football. So even if the Eagles win I think 52.5 is a little low. Weather is good in Philly today too.

Season to date (weeks 1-6): 12-17-1 This week: 1-6 (ouch)

NFL 2023 Week 6 Picks

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

CHIEFS -11 vs. Broncos

Seahawks +3 vs. BENGALS

JAGS -3.5 vs. Colts

Eagles -6.5 vs. JETS ❌ — I don’t get why this line is under 7. (I still don’t get why this line was under 7 — the Eagles blew that game.)

Cowboys -1.5 vs. CHARGERS ✅ — Genuinely wonder if the Cowboys ought not be considered the home team for this game. I expect 75 percent of fans to be rooting for them. (The crowd was definitely more on Dallas’s side. It’s good to be America’s Team.)

Season to date (weeks 1-5): 10-15
This week: 2-2-1

NFL 2023 Week 5 Picks

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Giants +12.5 vs. DOLPHINS ❌ – That’s just a mountain of points.

STEELERS +4.5 vs. Ravens ✅ – Going with my gut on this one, and going against my general rule to put a lot of weight on point differential early in the season. (Baltimore is +41; Pittsburgh an ugly -38.)

Chiefs -3.5 vs. VIKINGS ✅ – I don’t get why this line is so low.

Cowboys +3.5 vs. NINERS ❌ – The series record between the Cowboys and 49ers is 19-19-1.

Season to date (weeks 1-4): 8-13
This week: 2-2

NFL 2023 Week 4 Picks

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

BROWNS +2 vs. Ravens

Commanders +9.5 vs. EAGLES

BILLS -2.5 vs. Dolphins

COWBOYS -6 vs. Pats ✅ – Will be weird seeing Zeke on other sideline.

Season to date (weeks 1-3): 5-12
This week: 3-1

NFL 2023 Week 3 Picks

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Broncos +6 vs. MIAMI ❌ – I love this pick. Denver is 0-2 but only -3 on point differential. They’re a grand total of a single field goal from being 2-0. Plus you have Sean Payton fighting to avoid the humiliation of starting 0-3. I like Denver to straight up win and love them getting +6.

JAGUARS -7.5 vs. Texans ❌ – Houston on point differential: -27; Jags: +2.

Pats +2.5 vs. JETS ✅ – I’ll keep betting on Belichick until the Pats win a game.

Cowboys -12.5 vs. CARDINALS 2x pick of the week ❌❌ – Dallas is +60 on point differential and they’re effectively playing a home game in Arizona. Dallas is cruising toward the Super Bowl and Arizona is tanking toward the #1 draft pick. Easy cover.

Rams +2.5 vs. BENGALS ❌ – I like Joe Burrow. Who doesn’t? The kid’s got it. But something is clearly wrong with the Bengals this year, and I’m going to bet against them until they straighten it out.

Season to date (weeks 1-2): 4-7
This week: 1-5

NFL 2023 Week 2 Picks

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

JAGS +3.5 vs. Chiefs ❌ — Still thinking Doug Pederson might be the best coach in the today’s NFL, and it’d be fun to see Mahomes and the Chiefs dig their way out of an 0-2 start to the season.

BILLS -7.5 vs. Raiders ✅ — Josh Allen had an absolutely horrendous game last week. I expect different today.

PATS over Dolphins +120 moneyline ❌ — I don’t think the Patriots are getting nearly enough credit for coming thisclose to beating the Eagles last week, and I think Tua and the Dolphins are getting too much credit for running up and down the field against the Chargers’ “defense”.

COWBOYS -8.5 vs. Jets ✅ — Run that score up, baby.

This week: 2-2
Season to date: 2-5

NFL 2023 Week 1 Picks

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Thursday Night:

CHIEFS -4 vs. Lions — ❌


STEELERS +2 vs. Niners — ❌

PATRIOTS +3.5 vs. Eagles — ❌ Let’s see what Belichick still has in the tank.

Jaguars -3.5 vs. COLTS — ✅ I dig Doug Pederson. Looking for a strong season from the Jags.

BRONCOS -3 vs. Raiders — ❌ Looking for a strong opening from Sean Payton, plus I’m sick of losing money betting on the Raiders.

BEARS -1.5 vs. Packers — The Bears have got to turn it around eventually, and there’s a good chance the Pack is lost without Rodgers. ❌

Cowboys over GIANTS -166 moneyline — ✅ In Dak we trust. (In McCarthy we don’t.)

This week: 2-5

Super Bowl 57 Picks

Chiefs over Eagles +100 moneyline ✅ – I’m not actually making this bet because back in the preseason I put a big bet on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl at +1000 odds. So I’ll sit tight with that bet on today’s winner. But if I didn’t already have that bet placed, I’d go big on the Chiefs moneyline. I think we’ve got a rare treat today: the two best teams in the NFL are facing off in the Super Bowl. That doesn’t happen often. Sometimes the two best teams are both in the same conference. Sometimes one of the best teams has a bad game and doesn’t make it this far. Sometimes it’s just luck. But here we are. When in doubt, I say bet the better QB, and that QB is Patrick Mahomes.

Chiefs-Eagles OVER 51 2x bet ✅ ✅ – My “bet the over in playoff games” strategy has fallen on its face, but I’m sticking with it. I see both teams getting to around 24, and one of them hitting 31.

Top prop bets:

  • Travis Kelce first KC reception (+300) ✅ – Why not get things started with a quick 3-yard out pattern to Kelce?

  • Travis Kelce first TD scorer (+700) ❌

  • Non-QB touchdown pass (+1500) ❌ – You know Andy Reid has an entire book of trick plays, and Philly made the most famous such play five years ago. Try it again I say.

  • Any FG/PAT hits the cross bar (+450) ✅ – One of my favorite props. Gives you something goofy to root for on every single kick.

2022 regular season final record: 43-35-4
Playoffs to date: 11-13
Super Bowl: 5-2

NFL 2022 Playoff Picks, Conference Championships

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Didn’t work last week (to say the least) but I’m sticking with my theory that it’s smart to bet the over in playoff games. Postgame comments in italics.

EAGLES -150 vs. Niners moneyline 3× bet to win 2 units ✅ ✅– Either the kid Purdy finishes the most remarkable run in “last guy picked in the draft” history, or the Cinderella story bursts. I’ll bet on the latter. He’s had a couple of near-INTs that defenses dropped the last few weeks. I smell a pick six today.

Niners-Eagles OVER 46

Bengals +1.5 vs CHIEFS ❌ – I’ll take healthy Burrow over a gimpy Mahomes. (But also: I have nice bet from before the season started for the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl – betting the Bengals here feels like a nice hedge.)

Bengals-Chiefs OVER 48 ❌ I’m thinking 34-28 Bengals.

2-pick teaser: Eagles +3.5 / Bengals +7.5

2022 regular season final record: 43-35-4
Playoffs to date: 8-10
This week: 3-3