My pick to win: listed first. All caps: home team.

Saints -13.5 vs. PANTHERS – The Saints’ path to a first-round bye is wide open: if they win and 49ers lose to the Seahawks (possible!); if they win and Packers lose to Lions (unlikely); or if the Seahawks beat the 49ers and the Packers beat the lions. Long story short, I look for them to run up the score against the lowly Panthers. ✅

COWBOYS -12.5 vs Redskins – One can hope. ✅

GIANTS +4 vs. Eagles – One can hope. ❌

Steelers +1.5 vs. RAVENS – The Steelers must win this game to get in the playoffs (along with a Titans loss, or one other very complicated scenario). The Ravens have nothing to play for other than a home crowd. They’ve already locked-in home field advantage in the AFC playoffs. That the betting line is so low tells you that Vegas thinks the Ravens second team is better than the Steelers first team. I’ll take the team that needs to win. ❌

SEAHAWKS +3.5 vs. San Fran – What a Sunday night game for week 17. Everything else will be decided by the time this game starts, loser gets the division title, loser gets stuck going into the playoffs as a wildcard. And if Frisco wins they get home field advantage throughout playoffs and a first-round bye. Either they get a bye and then play all games at home, or they start next week and play all games on the road. I’ll take the Seahawks just because I like the cut of their jib. ❌

Last week: 5-7-1
Season to date: 51-59-2

My pick to win: listed first. All caps: home team.

Once we get halfway through the season or so, I start paying a lot of attention to teams’ point differential – their total points scored minus total points allowed. By the end of the season, I think point differential compared to win-loss record is the best measure of a team. You can spot some teams that should be doing better (bad luck), some teams that should be doing worse (good luck), but most teams wind up right where they should be.

Saturday games:

BUCCANEERS +3 vs. Texans – The Bucs are a rather extraordinary team. With 416 points scored so far, they trail only San Fran (419 points) in the entire NFC. And the only team in the AFC with more than 400 points scored so far are the Ravens (a whopping 472). They’re the third-highest-scoring team in the entire NFL! Did you know that? So why are they 7-7? Because their defense has given up 398 points – tied for worst in the NFC with the lowly Cardinals. Only the laughable Dolphins are worse (435). So they have the second-worst defense in the NFL. 7-7 is right where they should be. The Texans on the other hand, are net +11 points on the season – pretty good offense, pretty bad defense. But somehow they’re 9-5. I know the Bucs are out of the playoffs and that’s often an excuse teams use to start making vacation plans off-season, but I sort of feel like the Bucs are one of those out-of-the-playoffs teams with something to prove. I’ll take the points. 🖐

BILLS +6.5 vs. Patriots and Patriots-BILLS UNDER 37.5 – Look, betting against the Pats in week 16 with the AFC East title and a first-round playoff bye at stake is, historically speaking, stupid. Really dumb. The Pats own the AFC East and they practically own annual rights to one of those first-round byes that are so important to mounting a Super Bowl run. But Tom Brady has run out of gas, folks. In the last 5 weeks, among quarterbacks who’ve attempted 100 or more passes, Brady ranks 29th of 29 in every significant stat. He’s not just bad, he’s the been the worst quarterback in the league for over a month of important games. So I like the Bills with 6.5 points and I absolutely love the UNDER in this game (it’s a 2× bet for me). I can see the Pats winning by 3-4 points and the Bills covering. And it’s really hard for me to see either of these teams getting past 21 points unless the Pats defense and special teams score a few times on their own. ❌ ❌❌ (Oof.)

(Worth pointing out that the Pats have an extraordinary +191 point differential – lately that’s all been thanks to their defense, which has only given up 181 total points. No other team in the NFL has given up fewer than 200. But the second-fewest points given up? The Bills, at 222. Again, I love this UNDER.)

Rams (+285 moneyline) vs. FRISCO and Rams +7 vs. FRISCO – Both teams put up turds last week, with the Rams getting shellacked in Dallas and the Niners getting embarrassed by the Falcons (who look awful one week and like the contenders of a few years ago the next). The Rams still have a path to the playoffs, but it is bleak: they need to win out (Niners this week, Cardinals next week) and they need the Vikings to lose out (Packers this week, Bears next). But it’s not that bleak if they win this game against the Niners. The Packers are 5.5-point underdogs in the Monday night game against the Vikings, but they’re still the Packers, and they are absolutely not going to overlook this game with so much at stake. It’s that Bears-Vikings regular season finale in Minneapolis that looks bad for the Rams. But I see no reason for the Rams to give up, so I’ve got two separate bets on this game: a moneyline bet for the Rams to win outright and a +7 point-spread bet that the Rams will at least keep it within one score. ❌ ✅

Sunday games:

Saints -2 vs. TITANS – I think the Saints are the best team in the NFC. If I had to make a Super Bowl matchup bet today I’d go with Saints-Ravens (which sounds amazing). I don’t get this line at all. The Titans are still in the hunt for a playoff spot, yes, but the Saints are in the hunt for a first-round bye and possible home field advantage. I look for the Saints to blow this game out. 2× pick. ✅✅

Ravens -10 vs. BROWNS and Ravens-BROWNS OVER 49.5 – The Ravens are on fire and the Browns are so bad players are begging other teams to get them out of there. Plus there’s the revenge factor: somehow the Browns put a beatdown on the Ravens earlier this season. I’m taking the OVER figuring the Ravens will get around 40 on their own and the Browns will pick up some garbage time scores in the 4th quarter after the stadium is empty. ✅❌

Cowboys -2 vs. EAGLES – Both teams are 7-7 but Dallas is +90 on point differential (6.4 per game) and the Eagles are +6 (0.4 per game). Prescott might have a bum shoulder but against the Rams last week Dallas had two 100-yard rushers. Run, run, run. And who do the Eagles have to throw to other than Ertz? Just make someone other than Ertz beat them. Also, if Dallas jumps ahead early, look for the Philly crowd to get ugly. Carson Wentz is far from universally loved in this town. 2× pick. ❌❌

Chiefs -6.5 vs BEARS – This feels like a 34-20 sort of game. I expected this to be a 9-point spread. KC feels like they are really on a roll on both sides of the ball. ✅

Last week: 6-3
Season to date: 46-52-1

My pick to win: listed first. All caps: home team.

Thursday night expected blowout:

Jets @ RAVENS OVER 44.5 – The Ravens are averaging 33 points per game – they might get close to covering the over on their own. Then throw in some garbage time points for the Jets. ✅

Sunday picks:

Buccaneers -3.5 vs. LIONS – Jameis Winston is playing some exciting football: tossing tons of TDs and tons of INTs. But the thing is, the Bucs can score. I think the Lions are in complete this-season-has-long-been-over-and-our-future-looks-bleak-too let’s-just-give-up free fall. ✅

WASHINGTON +4 vs. Eagles – Wishful thinking on my part perhaps (which means almost certainly), looking to give Dallas some breathing room in race to win the Toilet Bowl, a.k.a. this year’s NFC East “title”. But hey, Washington won two in a row and last week gave the Packers a close game. I don’t think it’s ridiculous to think they could win, and I think they’ve got a great shot at covering. ❌

Bears +4 vs. PACKERS – The Packers are the worst team sitting on a first-round in week 15 in my memory. Christ they barely beat Washington last week. And this is the Super Bowl for the Bears. ❌

Seahawks -6.5 vs. PANTHERS – The Seahawks got dunked on by the Rams last week so I look for a strong comeback. Maybe they didn’t need last week’s game but they need this week’s game to have any chance of winning their division against the 49ers. I think they almost have to win by more than one score. ❌

COWBOYS +1.5 vs. Rams – Now that Jerry Jones has finally fired Jason Garrett, I look for the Cowboys to come out fired up. Wait, what? Oh. Well, they’re at home at least. And they really need to win this goddamn game. If we’re betting on quarterbacks I’ll take Prescott over Goff, and if we’re betting on running backs, I’ll take Elliot over Gurley any day of the week. Let’s not talk about coaches. 2× pick of the week because I’m an idiot. ✅✅

Three-way +5 teaser for big favorites (pays +190): Pats -6.5 vs. BENGALS + CHIEFS -6.5 vs. Broncos + SAINTS -5 vs. Colts – +5 is just enough points to give the Pats and Chiefs a win with a 7-point lead. The Pats are not going to lose this game. No mercy. The Saints are coming off a brutal loss in which they scored 46 points and a last-minute go-ahead touchdown and still lost – they’re going to be angry and they’re still at home. I pity the Colts. The Chiefs game is the one I’m worried about in this mix. The Broncos are starting to play well, and the Chiefs defense is middling at best. Feels like a situation where the Broncos might keep it close. ✅✅

Last week: 3-5 (I made up for it, personally, with a +6 teaser that included the Ravens and Saints covering and both those games going over – with the extra 6 points, all 4 bets covered – but that doesn’t count toward these official stats.)

Season to date: 40-49-1 (Not looking good for a winning season.)

My pick to win: listed first. All caps: home team.

Thursday night shitshow pick that I didn’t post until now:

Cowboys -3 vs. BEARS – I don’t even want to talk about this. ❌

Sunday picks:

Ravens -6 vs. BILLS and Ravens-BILLS OVER 44 – I look for the Ravens to run up the score early and let Buffalo score some garbage points in the second half to push the total above 44. I know Buffalo’s defense is actually very good but the Ravens are averaging over 30 points a game and that includes a high-scoring win over the Pats. ✅❌

SAINTS -1.5 vs. Niners and Niners-SAINTS OVER 45 – I’ve been a Niners doubter all year and they’ve killed me, and I’ve gotten burned at least once on my “don’t bet against the Saints playing at home” mantra, but I still say don’t bet against the Saints playing at home. I also really like the OVER in this game. I see it as a 28-24 or 31-28 type of game. ❌✅

Chiefs +3 vs. PATRIOTS – Lot of rumblings this week that Tom Brady – 42 and very much looking his age all season long – is on his way out. That doesn’t sound like a team headed to another Super Bowl. The Pats’ easy schedule and truly impressive defense has masked that they’re just not great. Even when they played the NFC East, in games that looked like they’d be tough at the start of the season, they got Dallas and Philly teams that have been in a season-long race to see which team can shit its bed the brownest and yet still somehow “win” the division. The Chiefs looked shaky for a few weeks – when Mahomes was hobbled with injuries. Mahomes is not hobbled with injuries now. It sounds stupid to say my money is on Andy Reid against Bill Belichick. But really, my money is on Patrick Mahomes against Tom Brady. This could be the game that marks the changing of the guard. ✅

RAIDERS +2.5 vs. Titans – If you can be 6-6 in a good way, the Raiders are. This is a team that plays with enthusiasm, believes they can win, and has a budding star in running back Josh Jacobs. And we’re in the homestretch for the last few games at the Oakland Coliseum. I say take the points. ❌

Seahawks +1 vs. RAMS – I think Vegas still favors the Rams based on last year’s high-scoring went-to-the-Super-Bowl team. And I think the Seahawks are viewed, rightfully, with a bit of skepticism for the number of very close games they’ve won (10-2 record but only +36 point differential – a nice even +3 per game). But I’ll stick with betting on quarterbacks, and I’ll take Russell Wilson over Jared Goff. My theory: the Seahawks aren’t winning close games because they’ve been lucky, but because Wilson is good at winning close games. Having a knack for winning close games is the defining skill that separates good quarterbacks from great ones. ❌

Last week: 6-6
Season to date: 37-44-1

My pick: listed first. All caps: home team.

Thanksgiving day:

Bears -6 over LIONS — The Lions shitting the bed is a Thanksgiving tradition. And I feel like the Bears are sneakily working their way into being a tough team to beat. ❌

COWBOYS over Bills -270 moneyline — I truly believe that if Dallas loses this game, Jerry Jones will fire Jason Garrett tonight. I’m not sure which outcome to root for. “Blame the coach” is every NFL fan’s knee-jerk response to a disappointing season, but I can’t recall a coach fucking up a big game the way Garrett fucked up last week’s game at New England. And he fucked it up in such a Jason Garrett-y way. I’ve been watching TV sports for over 40 years and I can’t recall an announcer excoriating a coach mid-game the way Aikman did regarding Garrett last week. Aikman more or less pantsed him on national TV — and Aikman is Garrett’s former teammate. ❌❌❌

Saints over FALCONS -290 moneyline — I can’t see the Saints dropping another turd against this Falcons team. Maybe they took them lightly three weeks ago — won’t happen again. ✅

Sunday picks:

6-point TEASER: PANTHERS -4.5 over Washington + RAVENS +0 over Niners – Washington is awful and the Panthers still have something to play for, but I like sticking this in a teaser to get the spread well under a touchdown. ❌

RAVENS over Niners -235 moneyline – Probably the two hottest teams in the league but I’ll take the Ravens at home. ✅

Packers -6.5 over GIANTS – This should be a rout. ✅

Rams -2.5 over CARDINALS – The Rams are in a bit of a pickle here. Super Bowl sweethearts a year ago but now they’re in distant third-place in their own division and are two games behind even a wildcard spot. They’ve got nothing to lose, so I’m not sure why this line is under a field goal. ✅

Raiders at CHIEFS, Total Passing TDs for Patricks Mahomes: OVER 2.5 – This feels like money in the bank, Mahomes carving up the Raiders secondary. ❌

TEXANS +3.5 over Pats – The Pats are coming off back-to-back wins against Philly and Dallas but I don’t think their offense looked good in either game. The Texans are much better on offense than defense, so I think they match up well. I’ll take the points and the home field advantage. ✅

SEAHAWKS -2.5 over Vikings – Great Monday night matchup and should be a close game, but I’ll take the home team and Russell Wilson. ✅

Last week: 4-4
Season to date: 37-44-1

First team listed: my pick. Team in CAPS: home team.

Seahawks -2 vs. EAGLES – I don’t how it’ll factor into the game but as I type this, 20 minutes before kickoff, it is miserable here in Philly. Cold and wet and windy as hell. i figure the better quarterback will win and that means Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. ✅

Raiders -3 vs. JETS – I got Raiders fever. Gruden has this team rolling. ❌

FALCONS -3.5 vs. Bucs – Two strong games in a row makes me think it’s no fluke, the Falcons have snapped out of their years-long funk. ❌

Cowboys +5.5 vs. PATS – There are a lot of ways Dallas can lose this game – badly. I mean it’s the Patriots at home. But the most obvious way: Garrett getting out-couched by Belichick. This feels like pissing into the wind but I put a 2x bet on Dallas taking the points. I definitely, definitely did not place an additional bet on the Dallas moneyline at +210. ✅✅❌

Packers +3.5 vs. SAN FRAN – That extra half-point feels huge in this game. ❌

Ravens -3 vs. RAMS – Here’s another game where the difference between 3 and 3.5 points feels huge. I feel like the Ravens might win big – they’re the hottest team in the league by far, but the Rams are fighting for their playoff lives. ✅

Last week: 5-2
Season to date: 33-40-1

Dallas -7.5 vs. Lions – Screw it, why not? ✅✅

Saints -5 vs. BUCS – I figure last week was an aberration for the Saints. ✅

PANTHERS -3.5 vs. Falcons — I figure last week was an aberration for the Falcons. ❌

Jets +1.5 vs. WASHINGTON — The Jets do well in these games against their fellow sad-sack teams. ✅

RAVENS -4.5 vs. Texans — I feel like the Ravens are the hottest team in the league right now. ✅

EAGLES +4.5 vs. Pats — Looking forward to this one. Feel like it’s going to be close, so I’ll take the points. ❌

Last week: 2-5 Season to date: 28-38-1

SAINTS -13.5 vs. Falcons – The Falcons and Dan Quinn have never recovered from blowing that Super Bowl against the Patriots three years ago. I don’t know how he still has the job. And the Saints are at home? Blowout. ❌

Chiefs -5 vs. TITANS – Mahomes is back. Chiefs defense seems acceptable again. ❌

JETS +2.5 vs. Giants – What a strange thing for two teams to share a stadium. Is there really a home field advantage? Neither team has a hope for the playoffs. This game is all either team has – this is their Super Bowl. So I’ll take the points. Can’t think of anything worse for a Giants fan than to lose to a 1-7 Jets team. ✅

Panthers +5 vs. PACKERS – I’ll take the points and McCaffrey and good old Norv Turner calling plays. ❌

COWBOYS -3 vs. Vikings – What a matchup. The Vikings are one game behind the Packers in the NFC North (but the Packers play early today) and Dallas is just a half-game ahead of the bye-week Eagles. My 2× pick of the week. ❌❌

Seahawks +6 vs. FRISCO – Another great matchup. I’ll take the points. ✅

Last week: 3-5
Season to date: 26-33-1

Washington +10.5 vs. BILLS – I’m sure Washington will figure out a way to lose this game, but I’ll take them with the points. ❌

Bears +5 vs. EAGLES – I think the wheels might be falling off the Eagles’ bus. This is my 2× wager pick of the week. ❌❌

DOLPHINS +3.5 vs. Jets – I’ve got Dolphins fever. ✅

RAIDERS -2.5 vs. LIONS – I’ve really got Raiders fever. I’ve think Gruden has this team on track to be a contender. ✅

Packers -4 vs. CHARGERS – Packers are winning by close to 7 points a game; the Chargers’ point differential is exactly 0 – 157 scored, 157 given up. And I don’t see them having any real home field advantage, so I don’t get why this line is only 4. ❌

Packers-CHARGERS OVER 47.5 ❌

RAVENS +3 vs. Patriots – This bet is purely what I’m rooting for. What I think will happen is that the Pats will win 24-13 or something like that. What I hope is that the Ravens beat them with a field goal as time expires. ✅

Last week: 3-3
Season to date: 23-28-1

All underdogs this week with onetwo exceptions.

BEARS -3.5 vs. Chargers – Bears defense is for real. Chargers seem like one of those teams that can only beat bad teams. ❌

Eagles +1 vs. BILLS – Make or break game for the Eagles, it feels like. In truth, they could lose and still win the NFC East. But it just feels like they need a win this week to assert themselves as a playoff team. ✅

Raiders +6 vs. TEXANS – I continue to think the Raiders are the most underrated team in the league. ✅

Panthers +4.5 vs. NINERS – San Fran has to lose eventually. ❌

PATS -10 vs. Browns – Late addition to my picks, snuck this one in just before kickoffs. Hate the feeling of betting on the Pats but, my god, they have both the highest-scoring offense and lowest-scoring-against defense in the NFL. Against the Browns. ✅

CHIEFS +5 vs. Packers – I’ll take the points and go with the home team – even with Mahomes out. Looking more and more like only injuries are going to keep the Patriots out of another Super Bowl, but if the Chiefs can straighten out their defense this feels like a possible Super Bowl preview. ❌

Last week: 5-1 Season to date: 20-25-1

Vikings -2.5 vs. LIONS – I’m so sick of losing betting against Detroit but here I am again. ✅

Raiders +5 vs. Packers – I think the Raiders are underrated and underdogs are doing great against the spread this year. ❌

Rams -3 vs. FALCONS – Atlanta hasn’t been right since they blew that Super Bowl to New England. ✅

Saints +4.5 vs. BEARS – Would’ve pegged this as a +3 line. ✅

COWBOYS -2.5 vs. Eagles – Both of these teams are having disappointing seasons. At this point it looks like only one team from the NFC East is going to make the playoffs, and there’s a good chance that’ll be the team that wins this game. 2× bet. ✅✅

Last week: 6-8
Season to date: 15-25-1

It seems very clear to me now that my poor season-to-date gambling record is the result of not betting enough games each week.

Thursday Night:

PATRIOTS -11.5 vs. Giants (-220 for the alternate line) – Pats are going to kill them. Too bad Eli Manning isn’t playing. 2× wager to win 1×. ✅

Sunday picks:

Panthers -2.5 vs. Bucs – This game’s in London so I don’t give the Bucs home field advantage. ✅

Seahawks -1.5 vs. BROWNS – I don’t get this line at all. Seattle is a top NFC team and the Browns just scored a total of 3 points on Monday. ✅

CHIEFS -4 vs. Texans – I don’t see the Chiefs losing two in a row and they’re playing at home. I expected this to be a 7-8-point spread. 2× wager. ❌❌

DOLPHINS +3.5 vs. Washington – The Garbage Bowl. I say go with the home team underdogs. Someone has to win. ✅

VIKINGS -3 vs. Eagles – I’ll admit I’m just rooting against the Eagles here. ✅

Saints +1.5 vs. JAGUARS – Again, I don’t get this line at all. I had the Saints as 2-3 point favorites. ✅

RAVENS -10.5 vs. Bengals – The Bengals are imploding, they’re 0-5 and somehow getting worse by the week. I look for the Ravens to get well beating up on them. 2× bet. ❌❌

RAMS -3.5 vs. 49ers – If the 49ers win this game, I’ll officially re-file the Niners as an NFC contender and the Rams as a bust. Until then, I’ve got them the other way around. ❌

Cowboys -7 vs. JETS – After losing two in a row this is a must-win for Dallas. Ezekiel Elliott ran well against the Packers last week but they fell behind so early they had to pass. Run run run, I say. 2× bet. ❌❌

PACKERS -3.5 vs. Lions – If the Lions win this one I’ll admit they’re good. But right now the Packers look like the best team in the NFC. ❌

Last week: 2-3-1.
Season: 9-17-1.

Ravens -3 vs. STEELERS – I subscribe to the theory that the Steelers are a bust this season, and the Ravens are better than their 2-2 record. 🖐

RAIDERS +6.5 vs. Bears – I think the Raiders are vastly underrated. Take the points. ✅

COWBOYS -200 vs. Packers (moneyline) – Dallas’s offense shit the bed last week in New Orleans but their defense was great. ❌ + Dak Prescott rushing yards OVER 18.5 ✅ + Ezekiel Elliott rushing yards OVER 89.5 ❌

Browns +5 over SAN FRAN – Early season trend has favored underdogs against the spread, and the Browns scored 40 last week against a good Ravens defense. ❌

Last week: 1-5 (jiminy).
Season: 7-14.

All favorites this week, with the exception of a Thursday night teaser.

5.5 point teaser (even money): Eagles +9.5 vs. PACKERS and Eagles-Packers UNDER 53 – Packers are only scoring 19 points per game this year, the Eagles only 25, and Packers’s defense looks fearsome. But the Eagles’ backs are against the wall already – I think they’ll go all-out to at least keep this close. ❌

RAVENS -7 vs. Browns – The Ravens are +50 in net points after three games; the Browns are -17. With the Ravens at home and Freddie Kitchens coaching, this should be a 10-point spread. ❌

Chiefs -6 vs. LIONS – How is this line not a touchdown or more? ❌

Total TD Passes by Patrick Mahomes: OVER 2.5 (-130) – Mahomes has 10 TDs in three games and I think he can light the Detroit secondary up. ❌

BEARS -2 vs. Vikings – I think the Bears’ defense is seriously good. ✅

Cowboys -2.5 vs. SAINTS – I won betting on the Saints last week, but Teddy Bridgewater did not look great. The Superdome is always tough, but I like the Cowboys’ chances here, giving up less than a field goal. ❌

Last week: 2-3.
Season: 6-9.

Took it on the chin last week after the refs completely screwed the Saints against the Rams again. Does anyone disagree with the fact that the NFL is the worst-officiated league in all of pro sports?

EAGLES -4 vs. Lions – Eagles at home, with a tough schedule stretch ahead of them, against a 1-0-1 Lions team I just can’t believe in. I look for the Eagles to run this up if they can. ❌

Raiders +9 vs. VIKINGS – Neither team has been particularly high-scoring so far – 9 points goes a long way in a low-scoring game. ❌

Saints +5 vs. SEAHAWKS – Just a gut feeling on this one. I feel like maybe Vegas is overreacting to Brees’s absence. ✅

RAMS -3.5 vs. Browns – Seems to me the line should be 5 or 6 for this game. ✅

Parlay: PATRIOTS -21 vs. Jets and COWBOYS -21 vs. Dolphins – Parleys are goofy (read: terrible) bets but these are goofy lines. Both of these teams will run up the score if given the chance. The Patriots are a bit meaner, and Miami, thus far, looks like it might be one of the worst teams in NFL history. ❌ (Can’t believe the Pats screwed me here.)

Last week: 2-4.
Season: 4-6.

Six picks this week, and they’re mostly 1p Sunday games. I reserve the right to add a little action later if I get bored.

Cowboys -6.5 vs. WASHINGTON – Close readers of my picks know I always pick Dallas, but if this were 7 I’d have second thoughts. ✅

TITANS -3 vs. Colts – After how well the Titans played last week on the road, I don’t get why they aren’t bigger favorite here at home. ❌

CHARGERS -1 vs. Lions – Come on, it’s the Lions. ❌

Seahawks +4 vs. STEELERS – This one I could see going either way. Either the Steelers come roaring back after getting utterly embarrassed by their arch-rival Patriots last week on national TV, or, the Steelers just plain suck. I’ll take the points. ✅

Saints +1.5 vs. RAMS – Hats off to the NFL for scheduling this revenge game to end all revenge games so early in the season. Now that the dust has settled there seems to be unanimous consensus that the Saints were robbed of a Super Bowl trip by the worst officiating call in NFL history. ❌

Eagles -1 vs. FALCONS – The Falcons only scored 12 points against the Vikings last week, all in the 4th quarter after they were down by 28. See my comments about the Steelers above – either they come roaring back, or maybe they just plain suck. ❌

Last week: 2-2.
Season: 2-2.

Well, the NFL is still in business, so I’m still watching, and that means betting picks. Please keep in mind that I wagered heavily on the Rams and the Over in the Super Bowl — your best bet, financially, is probably to fade me all season long. Speaking of which, I’m staying the fuck away from all Over/Under bets this season. I mean forget it. It’s like the Over/Under doesn’t even exist to me. Well… get back to me next week. Here are my picks this week, a betting theory I’m calling “Mostly home underdogs and America’s Team”:

DOLPHINS +7 vs. Ravens — Just seems like too many points. ❌

PANTHERS +1.5 vs Rams — After that Super Bowl, fuck the Rams. Honestly I dislike this team more than I dislike the goddamn Patriots. ❌

CARDINALS +3 vs. Lions — Honestly, do people think the Lions are a good team? Am I nuts? (Probably.) I’ve got the Lions at like 6-10 for the season. I’ll take the points here. ✅

COWBOYS -7 vs Giants — Playing the Giants is like a preseason game. Come on. I say Zeke runs for 150 yards and Dak throws for 300. The thing I love about Zeke’s “holdout” is that after he signed on Wednesday, the line didn’t change at all. It it was Dallas -7 before he signed and Dallas -7 after he signed. Which tells me the whole thing was a sham. ✅

SAINTS -3 over Rams
I was wrong about the Rams last week.

CHIEFS -3 over Patriots
I was wrong about the Pats last week.

Either or both of these games could be crazy high-scoring, but I’m not touching those over-unders.

I was wrong about a lot last week. Went 1-5. Playoffs to date: 2-7-1.

CHIEFS -4.5 over Colts ✅

God help me I’m betting on Andy Reid in a big game. Here’s the thing: I think Mahomes is the real day.

CHIEFS-Colts OVER 54 ❌

That’s a lot of points to cover but I’m thinking the Chiefs score 38 at least.

Cowboys +7 over RAMS ❌

My pick of the week. The Rams may well win but I honest to god believe Dallas has a better than 55 percent chance of covering this spread.

Chargers +4 over PATRIOTS ❌

I know, I know, it’s the Belichick/Brady Pats at home. But all good things must come to an end and I think this is the end. The Chargers made me believers in their win over the Ravens last week. I think they’ll be in Brady’s face all game.

SAINTS -8 over Eagles ❌

I’m convinced the Saints will win, but 8 points is a lot to give up. But the money line is -340, which is no fun at all. So here we are.

SAINTS-Eagles OVER 52.5 ❌

Fuck it.

Last week: 1-2-1. (I actually won my Dallas bet last week because I took the moneyline rather than the -2 point spread, but the spread was what I posted here.)

Colts +1 over TEXANS ✅

When in doubt, bet on the better quarterback.

COWBOYS -2 over Seahawks 🖐

I’ve got a bad feeling about this one.

RAVENS -2.5 over Chargers ❌

The last few years, when a high-scoring offense played against a killer defense, I’ve been on the offense. And I’ve gotten my clock cleaned. So I’m going with the defensive team.

BEARS over Eagles -250 moneyline ❌

The Bears haven’t been in the playoffs since 2011 — their fans are going to be crazy. I don’t get why the point spread is so big (6.5) — I’m going with the moneyline because I think it could be a low-scoring close game.

Last week: 1-2.

Regular season total: 40-28-2. Not bad.