My pick to win: listed first. All caps: home team.

Thursday night shitshow pick that I didn’t post until now:

Cowboys -3 vs. BEARS – I don’t even want to talk about this. ❌

Sunday picks:

Ravens -6 vs. BILLS and Ravens-BILLS OVER 44 – I look for the Ravens to run up the score early and let Buffalo score some garbage points in the second half to push the total above 44. I know Buffalo’s defense is actually very good but the Ravens are averaging over 30 points a game and that includes a high-scoring win over the Pats. ✅❌

SAINTS -1.5 vs. Niners and Niners-SAINTS OVER 45 – I’ve been a Niners doubter all year and they’ve killed me, and I’ve gotten burned at least once on my “don’t bet against the Saints playing at home” mantra, but I still say don’t bet against the Saints playing at home. I also really like the OVER in this game. I see it as a 28-24 or 31-28 type of game. ❌✅

Chiefs +3 vs. PATRIOTS – Lot of rumblings this week that Tom Brady – 42 and very much looking his age all season long – is on his way out. That doesn’t sound like a team headed to another Super Bowl. The Pats’ easy schedule and truly impressive defense has masked that they’re just not great. Even when they played the NFC East, in games that looked like they’d be tough at the start of the season, they got Dallas and Philly teams that have been in a season-long race to see which team can shit its bed the brownest and yet still somehow “win” the division. The Chiefs looked shaky for a few weeks – when Mahomes was hobbled with injuries. Mahomes is not hobbled with injuries now. It sounds stupid to say my money is on Andy Reid against Bill Belichick. But really, my money is on Patrick Mahomes against Tom Brady. This could be the game that marks the changing of the guard. ✅

RAIDERS +2.5 vs. Titans – If you can be 6-6 in a good way, the Raiders are. This is a team that plays with enthusiasm, believes they can win, and has a budding star in running back Josh Jacobs. And we’re in the homestretch for the last few games at the Oakland Coliseum. I say take the points. ❌

Seahawks +1 vs. RAMS – I think Vegas still favors the Rams based on last year’s high-scoring went-to-the-Super-Bowl team. And I think the Seahawks are viewed, rightfully, with a bit of skepticism for the number of very close games they’ve won (10-2 record but only +36 point differential – a nice even +3 per game). But I’ll stick with betting on quarterbacks, and I’ll take Russell Wilson over Jared Goff. My theory: the Seahawks aren’t winning close games because they’ve been lucky, but because Wilson is good at winning close games. Having a knack for winning close games is the defining skill that separates good quarterbacks from great ones. ❌

Last week: 6-6
Season to date: 37-44-1