My pick to win: listed first. All caps: home team.

Thursday night expected blowout:

Jets @ RAVENS OVER 44.5 – The Ravens are averaging 33 points per game – they might get close to covering the over on their own. Then throw in some garbage time points for the Jets. ✅

Sunday picks:

Buccaneers -3.5 vs. LIONS – Jameis Winston is playing some exciting football: tossing tons of TDs and tons of INTs. But the thing is, the Bucs can score. I think the Lions are in complete this-season-has-long-been-over-and-our-future-looks-bleak-too let’s-just-give-up free fall. ✅

WASHINGTON +4 vs. Eagles – Wishful thinking on my part perhaps (which means almost certainly), looking to give Dallas some breathing room in race to win the Toilet Bowl, a.k.a. this year’s NFC East “title”. But hey, Washington won two in a row and last week gave the Packers a close game. I don’t think it’s ridiculous to think they could win, and I think they’ve got a great shot at covering. ❌

Bears +4 vs. PACKERS – The Packers are the worst team sitting on a first-round in week 15 in my memory. Christ they barely beat Washington last week. And this is the Super Bowl for the Bears. ❌

Seahawks -6.5 vs. PANTHERS – The Seahawks got dunked on by the Rams last week so I look for a strong comeback. Maybe they didn’t need last week’s game but they need this week’s game to have any chance of winning their division against the 49ers. I think they almost have to win by more than one score. ❌

COWBOYS +1.5 vs. Rams – Now that Jerry Jones has finally fired Jason Garrett, I look for the Cowboys to come out fired up. Wait, what? Oh. Well, they’re at home at least. And they really need to win this goddamn game. If we’re betting on quarterbacks I’ll take Prescott over Goff, and if we’re betting on running backs, I’ll take Elliot over Gurley any day of the week. Let’s not talk about coaches. 2× pick of the week because I’m an idiot. ✅✅

Three-way +5 teaser for big favorites (pays +190): Pats -6.5 vs. BENGALS + CHIEFS -6.5 vs. Broncos + SAINTS -5 vs. Colts – +5 is just enough points to give the Pats and Chiefs a win with a 7-point lead. The Pats are not going to lose this game. No mercy. The Saints are coming off a brutal loss in which they scored 46 points and a last-minute go-ahead touchdown and still lost – they’re going to be angry and they’re still at home. I pity the Colts. The Chiefs game is the one I’m worried about in this mix. The Broncos are starting to play well, and the Chiefs defense is middling at best. Feels like a situation where the Broncos might keep it close. ✅✅

Last week: 3-5 (I made up for it, personally, with a +6 teaser that included the Ravens and Saints covering and both those games going over – with the extra 6 points, all 4 bets covered – but that doesn’t count toward these official stats.)

Season to date: 40-49-1 (Not looking good for a winning season.)