My pick: listed first. All caps: home team.

Thanksgiving day:

Bears -6 over LIONS — The Lions shitting the bed is a Thanksgiving tradition. And I feel like the Bears are sneakily working their way into being a tough team to beat. ❌

COWBOYS over Bills -270 moneyline — I truly believe that if Dallas loses this game, Jerry Jones will fire Jason Garrett tonight. I’m not sure which outcome to root for. “Blame the coach” is every NFL fan’s knee-jerk response to a disappointing season, but I can’t recall a coach fucking up a big game the way Garrett fucked up last week’s game at New England. And he fucked it up in such a Jason Garrett-y way. I’ve been watching TV sports for over 40 years and I can’t recall an announcer excoriating a coach mid-game the way Aikman did regarding Garrett last week. Aikman more or less pantsed him on national TV — and Aikman is Garrett’s former teammate. ❌❌❌

Saints over FALCONS -290 moneyline — I can’t see the Saints dropping another turd against this Falcons team. Maybe they took them lightly three weeks ago — won’t happen again. ✅

Sunday picks:

6-point TEASER: PANTHERS -4.5 over Washington + RAVENS +0 over Niners – Washington is awful and the Panthers still have something to play for, but I like sticking this in a teaser to get the spread well under a touchdown. ❌

RAVENS over Niners -235 moneyline – Probably the two hottest teams in the league but I’ll take the Ravens at home. ✅

Packers -6.5 over GIANTS – This should be a rout. ✅

Rams -2.5 over CARDINALS – The Rams are in a bit of a pickle here. Super Bowl sweethearts a year ago but now they’re in distant third-place in their own division and are two games behind even a wildcard spot. They’ve got nothing to lose, so I’m not sure why this line is under a field goal. ✅

Raiders at CHIEFS, Total Passing TDs for Patricks Mahomes: OVER 2.5 – This feels like money in the bank, Mahomes carving up the Raiders secondary. ❌

TEXANS +3.5 over Pats – The Pats are coming off back-to-back wins against Philly and Dallas but I don’t think their offense looked good in either game. The Texans are much better on offense than defense, so I think they match up well. I’ll take the points and the home field advantage. ✅

SEAHAWKS -2.5 over Vikings – Great Monday night matchup and should be a close game, but I’ll take the home team and Russell Wilson. ✅

Last week: 4-4
Season to date: 37-44-1