My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments in italics.

Took a break for a few weeks to take some remedial sports betting classes. (I need to backdate a few bets I snuck in though, while not posting here.) Back at it this week, with a simple philosophy: bet the obvious. I should have and would have bet the Colts over Cardinals last night but, you know, it was a holiday.

PATS -1.5 vs. Bills ❌ – I’ll bet on Belichick.

Giants +10.5 vs. EAGLES ❌ – I think the Eagles will likely win, but 10.5 is a lot of points and the Giants hate the Eagles. Plus, the Eagles are playing on short rest, and the Giants aren’t. That’s a big deal in the NFL. I might even sneak in a little Giants moneyline bet off the books.

CHIEFS -10 vs. Steelers 2× bet ✅ ✅ – Travis Kelce is out with COVID, and that’s a big loss, but the Steelers are flailing, and Big Ben looks like he can barely throw the ball 10 yards downfield. If the Chiefs take an early lead, they might be off to the races.

Sunday Night Football

COWBOYS -9 vs. No-Names ✅ – Tie a ribbon on the NFC East and keep chasing that playoff bye, baby.

Monday Night Football

Dolphins -3 vs. SAINTS ✅ – The Saints have 21 players out on COVID protocol and are missing their top two QBs. If that doesn’t scream “Bet Miami -3” I don’t know what does.

Season to date (weeks 1–15): 45-47
This week: 4-2

Backdating this one, you’ll have to trust me. Would I lie to you with my betting record?

Cowboys -10.5 vs. GIANTS ✅

Season to date (weeks 1–14): 44-47
This week: 1-0

Backdating this one, you’ll have to trust me. Would I lie to you with my betting record?

Cowboys over NO-NAMES moneyline -275 5× bet to win 2 units. ✅ ✅

Season to date (weeks 1–13): 42-47
This week: 2-0

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments in italics.

Thursday Night Football:

Cowboys -6.5 vs. SAINTS ✅ – I’ll take Amari Cooper back and Mike McCarthy out any day.

Sunday:

Giants +6. vs. DOLPHINS ❌ — Don’t underestimate how bad Jason Garrett was.

Bucs–FALCONS Brady OVER 0.5 Yards Rushing ❌ — Just one scramble.

RAIDERS -1.5 vs. No-Names ❌ — If the Raiders whipped Dallas they can beat Washington by at least a field goal.

Jaguars +14 vs. RAMS ❌ — I’m thinking about a new rule where I just take any underdog getting 14 or more points. Plus, the Rams are sort of slumping.

Sunday Night Football:

Denver-CHIEFS UNDER 46.5 ✅ — Statistically, Denver’s defense doesn’t seem so great, but I think they can force the Chiefs to go slow, dinking and dunking. And KC’s defense has been playing great the last few weeks after a terrible start to the season.

Monday Night Football:

Pats +3 vs. BILLS ✅ + Pats over BILLS moneyline +130 ✅ — I think Belichick has his thing going on.

Cole Beasley OVER 3.5 Receptions ❌ — Always liked that guy when he was in Dallas. 4 catches seems like a better than 50-50 chance no matter if the Bills are ahead or behind.

Season to date (weeks 1–12): 38-42
*This week: 4-5

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments in italics.

Thanksgiving:

LIONS +3 vs. Bears ✅ – You gotta go with the Lions in this game, just out of sympathy.

COWBOYS -7.5 vs. Raiders ❌ – Got killed betting big on Dallas last week. But they bounced back big-time after losing to Denver, so I feel good about giving up these points today.

SAINTS +7 vs. Bills ❌ – What a crazy division the NFC South is. I’ll take the home team Saints and the points.

Sunday:

GIANTS +4 vs. Eagles — They shitcanned Jason Garrett; it’s all up from here.

Rams -2 vs. PACKERS — I think the NFC West is the toughest division in the NFL, and the NFC North one of the worst.

Season to date (weeks 1–11): 36-39

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments in italics.

Thursday Night Football:

Patriots -6.5 vs. FALCONS ✅ – After an awful start, the Patriots are playing very good football on both sides of the ball. (I’ll bet Belichick would love to play that Pats-Bucs game now instead of early October.) The Falcons took the worst beating of any team all season last week in Dallas. Thursday night games are the least predictable in the NFL because the week is so short, but I say go with the trends.

Sunday

Saints-EAGLES OVER 41.5 ✅
Saints +3 vs. EAGLES ❌ – I’m just betting against the Eagles for spite. Also, I feel like 21 points apiece is a good bet.

PANTHERS -3.5 vs. Washington ❌ – I think the Cam Newton return is for real. Also: betting against Washington for spite.

Cowboys +2.5 vs. CHIEFS 4x bet ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ – This is it, baby. Super Bowl preview.

Season to date (weeks 1–10): 34-33
This week: 2-6

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments in italics.

COWBOYS -1.5 vs. Falcons
Bucs -3.5 vs. WASHINGTON
Two-team -6 teaser, 2× bet. ❌ ❌ I feel like Dallas will come roaring back after last week’s embarrassment. The Bucs-WAS game, I feel a little iffy about that extra half-point, but I trust the Bucs to run up the score if they can.

PATRIOTS -2 vs. Browns – ✅ Hey, the Browns are legit. I like watching them. But the Patriots seem to be back, baby. There’s a longstanding theory that Belichick treats the first month of the season like an extended preseason – he’s still trying guys out, seeing what works. Never truer than this season.

BRONCOS -1 vs. Eagles – ❌ I don’t understand this line at all, after the way Denver played against Dallas last week. Seems like a gimme.

Season to date (weeks 1–9): 33-30
This week: 1-3

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments in italics.

Cowboys -10 vs. BRONCOS ❌ — This is a terrible bet. Don’t make this bet. You should probably bet the Broncos with +10 points. But I’ve been betting Dallas all year and don’t want to jinx them.

Raiders -3 vs. GIANTS ❌ — Raiders are looking great post-Gruden and the Giants are still the Giants.

Chargers -1 vs. EAGLES ✅ — I think this line is exactly right, it’s a 50-50 bet, so I’m just betting against NFC East competitors.

CHIEFS -7 vs. Packers ❌ — I just don’t see how the Rodgers-less Packers can keep up with the Chiefs, no matter how middling the Chiefs’ offense have been so far.

Monday Night Football Bonus Pick:

STEELERS -7 vs. Bears ❌ – Not a terrible week thus far, at 1-3, but not good. That calls for a last-minute MNF bet. Point differential would suggest something like an 8-point spread on a neutral field. The game is in Pittsburgh. So -7 is looking good to me. It’s as simple as that.

Season to date (weeks 1–8): 32-26
This week: 1-4

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments in italics.

LIONS +3 vs. Eagles ×2 Bet ❌ ❌ — I think the Lions are way better than their record suggests.

CHARGERS -4 vs. Pats ❌ — Pats are cooked.

Bucs -4 vs. SAINTS ❌ — Saints are cooked.

Cowboys -2.5 vs. VIKINGS ✅ ✅ — I don’t feel good about that extra half-point.

Season to date (weeks 1–7): 30-22
This week: 2-4

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments in italics.

Thursday Night Football:

Bucs -6.5 vs. EAGLES ❌ Bucs -6.5 vs. EAGLES + Under 53 +250 Parlay ❌ — I’m looking at a 31-17 win for Tampa, where Tampa is up 28-10 or something and the 4th quarter is a snooze. Close, but the hook got me.

Sunday picks:

Chargers +3 vs. RAVENS ❌ — The Ravens’ “we’ll pull it out at the very end” schtick has to end eventually.

Cowboys -3.5 vs. PATRIOTS ✅ — I don’t feel good about that extra half-point.

Season to date (weeks 1–5): 29-19
This week: 1-3

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments in italics.

BENGALS +120 over Packers moneyline – ❌ Take a 3-1 home underdog, I say. The dreaded hook got me on this one.

PANTHERS -3 vs. Eagles ❌ – I think the Panthers are for real. +31 point differential in 4 games. Clearly the right pick; the Panthers just choked down the stretch.

Saints -2.5 vs. WASHINGTON ✅ – The Saints are all over the place this season, but they’re +22 on points and Washington is -21. Good value here.

RAIDERS -5.5 vs. Bears ❌ – Raiders put up a turkey last week but I still like them. Two turkeys in a row, time to get off the Raiders train.

COWBOYS -7 vs. Giants ✅ ✅
COWBOYS -335 over Giants moneyline ✅ – 2x bet on the spread, 3x bet on the moneyline. I’d feel worried about this game, especially against the spread, if the Giants hadn’t won last week. With a win last week though, Dallas shouldn’t be looking past them.

Season to date (weeks 1–4): 26-16
This week: 3-3

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Let’s just bet the NFC East on Sunday afternoon. Post-game comments in italics.

1p Sunday:

COWBOYS -4 over Panthers ✅
COWBOYS over Panthers -200 moneyline 2× bet ✅ — The Panthers are off to a great start, and have given up a grand total of 30 points. But, come on, two of those games were against the Jets and the Texans. I think Dallas is going to stomp them.

SAINTS -7 over Giants ❌ — The Saints are fresh off a big win over the Patriots in New England. The Giants are fresh off getting their ass kicked every week.

Chiefs -7 over EAGLES ✅ — Every single fan in the Linc is going to be thinking the same thing: “Why isn’t Andy Reid still our coach, instead of this dummy?” The Chiefs need to get right, and the Eagles have the sort of soft defense a team can get right against.

FALCONS +1.5 over Washington ❌ — Both these teams stink, but someone’s got to win, the Falcons are getting points, and my working theme for the season is that Dallas runs away with the NFC East.

YANKEES -135 over Rays ✅ — No way the Yankees are getting swept with so much on the line.

Sunday Night Football:

PATS +7 over Bucs ✅ – Bill Belichick a touchdown underdog? At home? I think the Pats have the Bucs right where they want them.

Monday Night Football:

Raiders +3 over CHARGERS ❌ — I got Raiders fever, what can I say.

Season to date (weeks 1–3): 21-13
This week: 5-3

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Cowboys did me good last week, so I’m feeling smart and picking a bunch of games this week. Post-game comments in italics.

1p Sunday:

Ravens -7.5 over LIONS ❌ – The Ravens just beat the Chiefs. The Lions barely know how to put their helmets on.

CHIEFS -7 over Chargers ❌ – Either the Chiefs have lost the plot, starting back in the Super Bowl, or they’re due for a blowout. I’ll go with the blowout, especially at Arrowhead. Lost the plot, it is.

PATS -2.5 over Saints ❌ ❌ – Saints laid a turd vs. the Panthers last week, and the Pats defense is looking like the Pats defense. I’m telling you, Belichick smells a winner with Mac Jones. This feels like easy money, especially with the Pats at home, so let’s make it a 2× bet.

STEELERS -2.5 over Bengals ❌ – Feel like the Steelers are both the better team and at home. I watched this game. The Steelers offense looked dreadful.

4p Sunday:

RAIDERS -3.5 over Dolphins ❌ – The Raiders are on a roll, bet the streak. The dreaded hook.

RAMS over Bucs +100 moneyline ✅ – Two very hot teams. Something’s got to give. But let’s be honest, I just want to root against Brady. If I had to go 1-8 on Sunday, this was the one I’d have wanted to win. Delightful.

Seahawks -1.5 over VIKINGS ❌ – I don’t get why the line is this close. The Seahawks are clearly a far better team.

Sunday Night Football:

FRISCO -3 over Packers ❌ – I know they won last week, but the Packers feel a bit dysfunctional to me. I’d have laid off this game if the line were any higher, though. Hell of a good game, and that sonofabitch Rodgers still has it. A pleasure to watch that game-winning drive, knowing that whatever happened, San Fran wasn’t going to cover and my bet was lost.

Monday Night Football:

COWBOYS over Eagles -180 moneyline ✅ ✅ – America’s Team is back baby. 4× unit bet to win 2+ on the moneyline. Clearly the best team in football.

Season to date (weeks 1–2): 18-5
This week: 3-8, ouch

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In honor of the great sports bettor Norm Macdonald, all most picks this week are on the moneyline.

Pats over JETS -255 ✅ (0.5 unit) — I mean come on, this is a gimme.

Raiders over STEELERS +200 ✅ ✅ — I think the Raiders are for real.

Saints over PANTHERS -175 ❌ — Another gimme. Saints are going to win this game.

Niners -2.5 vs. EAGLES ✅ — Eagles strike me as overrated this year.

Cowboys over CHARGERS +140 ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ — I can’t believe Dallas is the underdog in this game. Did anyone watch last week? 5× pick of the week.

Season to date (week 1): 7-4
This week: 11-1

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS.

Cowboys +8.5 vs. BUCS 2× bet ✅ ✅
Cowboys over BUCS +360 moneyline 2× bet ❌ ❌ – This game brings it all together. I can feel it. Dak Prescott is back, with a slew of great receivers. Ezekiel Elliott is ready to roll. Mike McCarthy is ready to prove he’s not a fucking idiot. It’s Dallas’s year to get all the lucky breaks – the same year Father Time is going to catch up to Tom Brady. America’s Team is back. I can win money betting pro football. I’m ready to believe all of this.

Steelers +6.5 vs. BILLS ✅ – I like Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger as big underdogs in week 1.

Seahawks -3 vs. COLTS ✅ ✅ – 2× pick of the day. Russell Wilson vs. Carson “Anti-Vax Dipshit” Wentz? Gimme gimme.

CHIEFS -5.5 vs. Browns ❌ – This was a tough one, because I really do think the Browns are for real. I expect a great season from them. They’re young and they can run the hell out of the ball. But it’s the Chiefs, at home, healthy, with a lot to prove after they laid a big goose egg in the Super Bowl last year. I think the Chiefs want to show they’re still the fearsome Chiefs.

PATS -3.5 vs. Dolphins ❌ – I feel almost exactly about this game as I do about the Browns-Chiefs game. I think Miami is on the upswing. But holy hell does Belichick have a lot of motivation after he let Brady go and Brady went on to collect a 7th Super Bowl ring. And the Pats are at home.

RAMS -9 vs. Bears ✅ – I think the Rams - Goff + Stafford are going to be a huge upgrade. Very scary team. I think the Bears are a total mystery. They’re either going to lose this game by 21 or win a squeaker by 3. So I’ll take the Rams and give up the points. To me the differences are (a) the game being in LA, and (b) Dalton playing QB for the Bears. I saw Dalton last year. He’s decent. Decent isn’t going to get the Bears to the end zone enough.

Monday Night:

RAIDERS +4 vs. Ravens ✅ – I’m a Gruden believer. The Raiders were all over the place last season: beating very good teams and losing to bad teams. I think Gruden will even that out on the winning side.

This week: 7-4

Big bet: KC moneyline (-155)

Here’s my basic storyline for the game. KC is a “feel” team. They can start slow but once they get feel for what the defense is doing, the have plays that will pick them apart, no matter what the defense is doing. Take away the long ball, they run. Take away the run, they throw long. I feel like there’s a high chance Tampa takes an early lead and KC still wins in a blowout.

Alternate point spreads:

KC -7 (+185)
KC -13.5 (+390)
KC wins by 13-18 (+700)

Props:

My MVP thinking is this: if KC wins it’ll be because Mahomes has a big game. But he won the MVP last year. I think MVP voters have an anti-QB bias because they could always just give the MVP to the winning QB. So, I think there’s good value in betting on Kelce or Hill for MVP — you’re still betting on Mahomes having a huge game.

Also, in 54 Super Bowls, no tight end has ever won the MVP. If it’s ever going to happen, I think Travis Kelce is the guy. (Sort of surprised Gronk never won it back in the Patriots’s dynasty years.)

Travis Kelce MVP (+1300)
Tyreek Hill MVP (+1000)
Travis Kelce 3+ TDs (+1000)

Tom Brady rushing yards OVER 0.5 — This one feels like a lock. Sacks do not count against QB rushing yards, but kneel downs do. I feel like Brady has got to scramble for at least one first down or score a TD on a QB sneak. I feel like the only way this does not hit is if TB wins and he takes a couple end-of-game kneel downs. But I’m all-in on KC winning the game so why not?

Patrick Mahomes rushing yards OVER 23.5 — I think the whole game is going to come down to the Tampa pass rush. And I feel like the more they press on the pass rush, the more likely it is that Mahomes squirts out of the pocket for scrambles. I could see Majomes covering this in the first half alone.

The Doink Special: Any FG or PAT to hit uprights or crossbar (+350) — How can you resist betting on this? Makes every kick an event.

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. All picks are 2× picks in the conference championship round. Postgame comments in italics.

PACKERS -3 vs. Bucs – To hell with Tom Brady. I think Rodgers has him beat. ❌❌

CHIEFS -3 vs. Bills – This line is an absolute gift. I can’t believe the Chiefs aren’t favored by more. ✅✅

Props:

PACKERS -6 vs. Bucs (+150) ❌
PACKERS -10 vs. Bucs (+295) ❌
PACKERS to win by 13-18 (+700) ❌

CHIEFS -6 vs. Bills (+160) ✅✅
CHIEFS -10 vs. Bills (+285) ✅✅✅
CHIEFS to win by 13-18 (+750) ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅

2020 regular season final record: 43-52-1
2020 playoffs to date: 4-12-1 This week: 14-5

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.

Got absolutely murdered last Sunday picking over-unders. Staying the hell away from them this week (but I sort of like the Under in the Ravens-Bills game.)

Saturday:

Rams +6.5 vs. PACKERS
Rams +245 moneyline vs. PACKERS — This one leaves a bad taste in my mouth. There’s something about the way the Rams just utterly shit the bed against the Patriots in the Super Bowl two years ago that has left a permanent bad taste in my mouth about Jared Goff. They only scored 3 points! But the thing to remember is that their defense actually played a remarkable game — they only lost 13-3. I feel like the Rams have that big game killer defense back this year. I still feel bad betting on Goff, but I’ll take the points and assume the Rams defense will at least keep it close. And I’ll throw in one extra bet on the Rams to straight up win the game — I feel like the Rams have a better chance in this game than the odds say. ❌ ❌

Ravens +2.5 vs. BILLS
Ravens ++118 moneyline vs. BILLS — This one feels like one of those irresistible force (Bills offense) vs. immovable object (Ravens defense) games. Low-scoring game, high-scoring game, who knows? I’ll take the points and bet on the Ravens defense and a clutch 4th quarter from Lamar Jackson. ❌ ❌

Sunday:

Browns +10 vs. CHIEFS — This is the one game of the weekend I might have stayed away from if not the regulation requiring a wager on every playoff game. But then the more I thought about it, the more obvious it was to take the points and bet the Browns. They looked amazing last week sticking it to the Steelers in Pittsburgh. And with 10 points, they can be getting killed and still cover the spread with a cheap late touchdown. How do you bet against a feel-good story? I feel like this line is inflated by at least 3 points based on a general sense that the Chiefs just have to kill the Cleveland Browns, right? ✅

SAINTS -3 vs. Bucs — Brees-Brady, one last time. Feels like a matchup in a game of Madden, not real life. I think the Saints defense is a real problem for the Bucs’s vertical passing game. Also: fuck Tom Brady. 2× bet. ❌ ❌

This week: 1-6
2020 regular season final record: 43-52-1
2020 playoffs to date: 4-12-1

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.

Saturday:

Colts +6.5 vs. BILLS – I split one bet on the Colts here, half with the point spread and half on the moneyline (+275). Someone’s going to win an upset this weekend, and my pick is the Colts. No disrespect to the Bills, whom I consider a legit contender, I just think the Colts can keep it close and maybe win it in a last-team-with-the-ball scenario. ✋ Hell of a fun game to watch, but those missed field goals will kill you.

SEAHAWKS -3 vs. Rams
SEAHAWKS-Rams OVER 42.5 – I get it that both teams have some offensive problems at the moment, but come on, 43 points? I feel like that’s a good bet. I like the Seahawks as a team to go deep in the playoffs. Even when they’re off they almost always keep it close. ✅ ❌

Bucs -9 vs. NO-NAMES – There’s always at least one blowout in the first round, and this is my pick for it. I hate betting on Tom Brady, but the Bucs can score, always play better in the second half, and Washington is a damn joke. It’s not the No-Names’ fault that they even got into the playoffs through the Eagles’ ignominious tanking last week, but they’ve got the stink of a losing record on them despite that. ❌ That sonofabitch Brady. I’ll never bet on him again.

Sunday:

Ravens -3.5 vs. TITANS
Ravens-TITANS OVER 53.5 – I’m a big believer in momentum and the Ravens have momentum. They had the highest net points – total points scored minus total points allowed – of any team in the NFL. I’m taking the over just to root for a shootout. ✅ ❌

SAINTS -10.5 vs. Bears
SAINTS-Bears OVER 48.5 – 10.5 is an embarrassing amount of points for an NFL playoff game but the Chicago Bears are an embarrassing team to be in the NFL playoffs. Let’s see how close the Saints can get to covering the Over on their own. ✅ ❌

STEELERS -5.5 vs. Browns
STEELERS-Browns UNDER 47.5 – The Browns are so riddled with COVID that their coach is out for the game and they weren’t even able to practice. Maybe it’ll turn out that good teams don’t need to practice for an NFL playoff game against a tough road opponent like the Steelers. I’ll bet against that. ❌ ❌ Man, I really butchered every one of those O/U bets, but it sure was fun watching the Cleveland Browns demolish the Steelers. What a game.

2020 regular season final record: 43-52-1 This week: 3-6-1

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS.

Cowboys over GIANTS -140 moneyline – Dallas has the rest of the NFL right where they want them. 2× lock of the week. ❌ ❌

Dolphins -3.5 vs. BILLS The Bills just don’t have much to play for; Miami does. Go with the team that needs the win, I say. ❌

Saints -5.5 vs. Panthers The Panthers have had a nice season, and look set to be a playoff contender next year. But the Saints are playing for that sweet sweet #1 seed and first-round bye. ✅

Season to date (weeks 1–16): 42-49-1
This week: 1-3

2020 regular season final record: 43-52-1