Big bet: KC moneyline (-155)

Here’s my basic storyline for the game. KC is a “feel” team. They can start slow but once they get feel for what the defense is doing, the have plays that will pick them apart, no matter what the defense is doing. Take away the long ball, they run. Take away the run, they throw long. I feel like there’s a high chance Tampa takes an early lead and KC still wins in a blowout.

Alternate point spreads:

KC -7 (+185)
KC -13.5 (+390)
KC wins by 13-18 (+700)

Props:

My MVP thinking is this: if KC wins it’ll be because Mahomes has a big game. But he won the MVP last year. I think MVP voters have an anti-QB bias because they could always just give the MVP to the winning QB. So, I think there’s good value in betting on Kelce or Hill for MVP — you’re still betting on Mahomes having a huge game.

Also, in 54 Super Bowls, no tight end has ever won the MVP. If it’s ever going to happen, I think Travis Kelce is the guy. (Sort of surprised Gronk never won it back in the Patriots’s dynasty years.)

Travis Kelce MVP (+1300)
Tyreek Hill MVP (+1000)
Travis Kelce 3+ TDs (+1000)

Tom Brady rushing yards OVER 0.5 — This one feels like a lock. Sacks do not count against QB rushing yards, but kneel downs do. I feel like Brady has got to scramble for at least one first down or score a TD on a QB sneak. I feel like the only way this does not hit is if TB wins and he takes a couple end-of-game kneel downs. But I’m all-in on KC winning the game so why not?

Patrick Mahomes rushing yards OVER 23.5 — I think the whole game is going to come down to the Tampa pass rush. And I feel like the more they press on the pass rush, the more likely it is that Mahomes squirts out of the pocket for scrambles. I could see Majomes covering this in the first half alone.

The Doink Special: Any FG or PAT to hit uprights or crossbar (+350) — How can you resist betting on this? Makes every kick an event.