My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS.

Cowboys +8.5 vs. BUCS 2× bet ✅ ✅
Cowboys over BUCS +360 moneyline 2× bet ❌ ❌ – This game brings it all together. I can feel it. Dak Prescott is back, with a slew of great receivers. Ezekiel Elliott is ready to roll. Mike McCarthy is ready to prove he’s not a fucking idiot. It’s Dallas’s year to get all the lucky breaks – the same year Father Time is going to catch up to Tom Brady. America’s Team is back. I can win money betting pro football. I’m ready to believe all of this.

Steelers +6.5 vs. BILLS ✅ – I like Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger as big underdogs in week 1.

Seahawks -3 vs. COLTS ✅ ✅ – 2× pick of the day. Russell Wilson vs. Carson “Anti-Vax Dipshit” Wentz? Gimme gimme.

CHIEFS -5.5 vs. Browns ❌ – This was a tough one, because I really do think the Browns are for real. I expect a great season from them. They’re young and they can run the hell out of the ball. But it’s the Chiefs, at home, healthy, with a lot to prove after they laid a big goose egg in the Super Bowl last year. I think the Chiefs want to show they’re still the fearsome Chiefs.

PATS -3.5 vs. Dolphins ❌ – I feel almost exactly about this game as I do about the Browns-Chiefs game. I think Miami is on the upswing. But holy hell does Belichick have a lot of motivation after he let Brady go and Brady went on to collect a 7th Super Bowl ring. And the Pats are at home.

RAMS -9 vs. Bears ✅ – I think the Rams - Goff + Stafford are going to be a huge upgrade. Very scary team. I think the Bears are a total mystery. They’re either going to lose this game by 21 or win a squeaker by 3. So I’ll take the Rams and give up the points. To me the differences are (a) the game being in LA, and (b) Dalton playing QB for the Bears. I saw Dalton last year. He’s decent. Decent isn’t going to get the Bears to the end zone enough.

Monday Night:

RAIDERS +4 vs. Ravens ✅ – I’m a Gruden believer. The Raiders were all over the place last season: beating very good teams and losing to bad teams. I think Gruden will even that out on the winning side.

This week: 7-4