NFL Playoff Conference Championship Picks

SAINTS -3 over Rams
I was wrong about the Rams last week.

CHIEFS -3 over Patriots
I was wrong about the Pats last week.

Either or both of these games could be crazy high-scoring, but I’m not touching those over-unders.

I was wrong about a lot last week. Went 1-5. Playoffs to date: 2-7-1.

NFL Playoff Picks, Round 2

CHIEFS -4.5 over Colts ✅

God help me I’m betting on Andy Reid in a big game. Here’s the thing: I think Mahomes is the real day.

CHIEFS-Colts OVER 54 ❌

That’s a lot of points to cover but I’m thinking the Chiefs score 38 at least.

Cowboys +7 over RAMS ❌

My pick of the week. The Rams may well win but I honest to god believe Dallas has a better than 55 percent chance of covering this spread.

Chargers +4 over PATRIOTS ❌

I know, I know, it’s the Belichick/Brady Pats at home. But all good things must come to an end and I think this is the end. The Chargers made me believers in their win over the Ravens last week. I think they’ll be in Brady’s face all game.

SAINTS -8 over Eagles ❌

I’m convinced the Saints will win, but 8 points is a lot to give up. But the money line is -340, which is no fun at all. So here we are.

SAINTS-Eagles OVER 52.5 ❌

Fuck it.

Last week: 1-2-1. (I actually won my Dallas bet last week because I took the moneyline rather than the -2 point spread, but the spread was what I posted here.)

NFL Playoff Picks, Round 1

Colts +1 over TEXANS ✅

When in doubt, bet on the better quarterback.

COWBOYS -2 over Seahawks ✋

I’ve got a bad feeling about this one.

RAVENS -2.5 over Chargers ❌

The last few years, when a high-scoring offense played against a killer defense, I’ve been on the offense. And I’ve gotten my clock cleaned. So I’m going with the defensive team.

BEARS over Eagles -250 moneyline ❌

The Bears haven’t been in the playoffs since 2011 — their fans are going to be crazy. I don’t get why the point spread is so big (6.5) — I’m going with the moneyline because I think it could be a low-scoring close game.

Last week: 1-2.

Regular season total: 40-28-2. Not bad.

NFL 2018 Week 16 Picks

(Posting late, sorry.)

Not a lot to like in this week’s lines.

COWBOYS (-350) vs Bucs money line ✅

Cowboys have to win this game. I have an awful feeling it’s going to be close though.

Bears -4.5 vs. 49ERS ✅

I think the Bears will crush the Niners.

Steelers at SAINTS over 53.5 ✅

One of these games the Saints are going to get their offensive mojo back. And the Steelers seems to have their mojo back after last week’s win over the Pats.

Late night bonus pick since I’m 3-0 on the day: SEAHAWKS -0 vs Chiefs ✅

Time for Andy Reid to be Andy Reid in a big game.

[Last week: 2-4][lw]. Season to date: 35-26-2.

NFL 2018 Week 15 Picks

Made some picks early this week.

Chargers vs. CHIEFS over 53 ✅

Feel like this one could go way over.

BEARS -6 vs. Packers ✅

Bears should be looking for payback after years of getting their asses kicked by the Pack.

Cowboys +3 vs. COLTS ❌

Give me a break.

GIANTS -2.5 vs. Titans ❌

I hate to say it but the Giants are on a roll. I’ll take them in a close one at home.

Seahawks -6 vs. 49ERS ❌

The Seahawks are rolling and have serious playoff hopes. The 49ers have nothing.

Saints -6 vs. PANTHERS ❌

With home field advantage at stake I think the Saints will run it up if they can.

Last week: 5-0 (!). Season to date: 33-22-2. If I don’t screw this up down the stretch I should finish ahead for the season.

NFL 2018 Week 14 Picks

Saints -10 vs. BUCS ✅

Saints will be looking to come back big from their loss to Dallas.

Ravens +7 vs. CHIEFS ✅

I feel like this one could be close.

DOLPHINS +8 vs. Patriots ✅

Pats have had a lot of close games this season, and they always seem to have problems in Miami.

COWBOYS -3.5 vs. Eagles ✅

I’m worried about this game. Feel like the Eagles are waking up.

SEAHAWKS -3 vs. Vikings ✅

The Seahawks are playing well and are at home.

Last week: 3-2. Season to date: 28-22-2.

NFL 2018 Week 13 Picks

DALLAS +8 vs Saints ✅

DALLAS-Saints over 52.5 ❌

(I was worried the Saints would score 53 on their own, but I like the way this game turned out.)

Bears -3.5 vs GIANTS ❌

Bears still not getting the respect they deserve. Plus, the Giants might be the worst coached team in the league.

Ravens +3 vs FALCONS ✅

Gut feeling on this one: I feel like the Ravens can taste the playoffs and Falcons know they’re done.

TEXANS -5 vs Browns ✅

If the Texans are really a top AFC playoff team, they should win this one walking away.

Last week: 3-5 (including Thanksgiving). Season-to-date: 25-20-2.

NFL 2018 Week 12 Picks — Sunday

Jaguars -3 vs BILLS ❌

The Bills are just horrible, no idea how they’ve won 3 games.

JETS +12 vs Patriots ❌

This line seems skewed toward the Pats.

RAVENS -13 vs Raiders ✅

A big line to cover but I think the Ravens are fighting for their lives.

Steelers -3 vs. BRONCOS ❌

Steelers still seem underrated by Vegas to me.

COLTS -9 vs Dolphins ❌

Don’t bet against the hot team. Seems like Andrew Luck is hitting his stride.

Thanksgiving day: 2-1. Season to date: 24-16-2.

NFL 2018 Week 12 Picks — Thanksgiving Day

Bears -3 vs. LIONS ✅ I feel like this line should’ve been around 4.5 points. Not sure why the Bears aren’t getting the respect they deserve.

COWBOYS -7 vs. Washington ✅ Bring it on.

Falcons-SAINTS OVER 61 ❌ I think the Saints could score 61 on their own.

Weekend picks to come.

Last week: 3-2-1, with that push coming on the ridiculous 54-51 Rams-Chiefs game. Season to date: 22-15-2.

NFL 2018 Week 11 Picks

Cowboys +165 moneyline vs. FALCONS
I feel like Dallas is either going to win this game easily or they’re going to score a grand total of 10 points.

Steelers-JAGS over 47

Eagles-SAINTS over 57.5
That’s a lot of points but both of these teams can light it up.

Texans -160 moneyline vs. WASHINGTON
I’m just hoping Washington loses, but I do sort of think Washington has just lucked their way to a 6-3 record.

BEARS -2.5 vs. Vikings
Bears are on a roll and playing at home. Feel like this line should be around -4.

Chiefs +3 vs. RAMS

Last week: 2-2. Season to date: 19-13-1.

NFL 2018 Week 10 Picks

  • Saints -6 over BENGALS. If they can beat the Rams by 10 they can beat the Bengals by 10.

  • JETS -7 over Bills. Bills are in the running for having the worst offense and worst defense in the NFC.

  • Dolphins +10.5 over PACKERS. 10.5 seems like a lot of points for this game, even with the Dolphins at Lambeau.

  • Cowboys +7.5 over EAGLES. 7.5 points, for chrissakes.

Picked up a little bonus scratch with a last-minute parlay on Dallas covering and the over (45.5) hitting.

Last week: 4-1. Season to date: 17-11-1. Not bad!

NFL 2018 Week 9 Picks

Five bets this week, not counting Dallas on MNF. Let’s see how Sunday goes first.

  • Chiefs -9 over BROWNS. ✅

  • DOLPHINS -3 over Jets. The Jets are already bitching about the field conditions and the game hasn’t event started. ✅

  • SEAHAWKS -1 over Chargers. Don’t bet against Seahawks at home. ❌

  • SAINTS +1.5 over Rams. Rams are due to lose. ✅

  • Rams-Saints OVER 57. ✅

Last week: 2-1-1. Season to date: 13-10-1.

NFL 2018 Week 8 Picks

Four picks this week:

  • Seahawks +3 over LIONS. ✅

  • Broncos-Chiefs OVER 53 points. ✋

  • Saints -2 over VIKINGS. ✅

  • Saints-Vikings OVER 54 points. ❌

Thank god Dallas isn’t playing this week.

Last week: 1-2. Season to date: 11-9.

Why I Love Betting NFL Games

So I had Dallas -1 at Washington yesterday, and the over at 41.5. Final seconds of the game, Dallas is down 20-17 and driving for a field game to tie the game. If they make it, the over is almost certain to hit. The only way it doesn’t if if neither team scores in OT and the game finishes as a 20-20 tie. That sort of shit only happens to the Cleveland Browns. Any win by Dallas in OT – even a safety – and they cover the spread.

Instead, their field goal attempt clanks off the upright as time expires.

NFL 2018 Week 7 Picks

Three picks this week:

  • Saints +3 over RAVENS

  • Cowboys -1 over WASHINGTON

  • Cowboys-WASHINGTON over 41.5

Call me nuts but I think Dallas maybe figured out its offense. And I think the Saints have a monster offense – they’re a threat to win every game.

Last week: 3-0. Season to date: 10-7.

NFL 2018 Week 6 Picks

Not much to like in today’s lines. Only two bets today.

COWBOYS +150 money line over Jags.

Chiefs +3.5 over PATRIOTS.

Both of these bets are probably idiotic.

Last week: 1-4 (ouch). Season: 8-7 (including this week’s Thursday night game).

Took a real beating on last week’s picks. Will have a full slate of picks for Sunday, but tonight I’ll take the Eagles -2 over the GIANTS. Also half a bet on a teaser with the Eagles -2 and the Over at 44.5.

NFL 2018 Week 5 Picks

Falcons +155 moneyline over STEELERS Falcons are due for a big game.

Dolphins +6 over BENGALS Too many points.

Raiders +5 over CHARGERS Lot of points, and it shouldn’t even count as a home game for the Chargers.

Dallas +145 moneyline over TEXANS They both suck, so why not?

Redskins @ SAINTS OVER 53

NFL Week 4 Picks

  • Dolphins +7 over PATRIOTS. I know, I know, Miami usually gets whipped playing in Foxborough. And I can’t remember the last time the Pats lost three games in a row. But they’re 3-0 and getting 7 points.

  • COWBOYS -3 over Lions. Just shoot me if they lose this game.

  • RAIDERS -3 over Browns. The Raiders are 0-3 but they’ve been in every game. Gruden will run it up if he can.

  • Saints -3.5 over GIANTS. I’m thinking Saints win in a blowout.

  • Seahawks -3 over CARDINALS. The Cards have only scored 20 total points in three games. Their offense makes Dallas’s look good.

Last week: 2-1 (goddamn Cowboys). Season to date: 6-3.

Week 3 NFL Picks:

Saints +1.5 over FALCONS.

Colts +7.5 over EAGLES.

Cowboys +1 over SEAHAWKS.

All three are road underdogs. Still thinking about Bucs-Steelers tonight.

Season to date: 4-2.

NFL picks:

Jaguars -3 over Giants. Fuck the Giants.

Bills +7.5 over Ravens. Too many points.

Cowboys +125 moneyline over Panthers. Can’t believe Dallas isn’t favored in this one.

Inside My Pants

Walking home last night around 8:30p. Dark, but not quite fully night yet. A crew of men with hard hats and vests had removed a sidewalk grill ahead of me and were dropping a very bright light into the hole. It was an old brick sidewalk and an old access hatch.

I had to walk carefully to get around them. One of them, a big guy, was in the middle of a jovial anecdote.

“Oh yeah. One time I found one inside my pants while I was driving home!”

“In your pants, or your pocket?” said another guy.

“My pants! Right on my leg.”

Laughter all around.

I look down into the hole in the sidewalk as I pass. It was teeming with cockroaches.