Why I Love Betting NFL Games

So I had Dallas -1 at Washington yesterday, and the over at 41.5. Final seconds of the game, Dallas is down 20-17 and driving for a field game to tie the game. If they make it, the over is almost certain to hit. The only way it doesn’t if if neither team scores in OT and the game finishes as a 20-20 tie. That sort of shit only happens to the Cleveland Browns. Any win by Dallas in OT – even a safety – and they cover the spread.

Instead, their field goal attempt clanks off the upright as time expires.

NFL 2018 Week 7 Picks

Three picks this week:

  • Saints +3 over RAVENS

  • Cowboys -1 over WASHINGTON

  • Cowboys-WASHINGTON over 41.5

Call me nuts but I think Dallas maybe figured out its offense. And I think the Saints have a monster offense – they’re a threat to win every game.

Last week: 3-0. Season to date: 10-7.

NFL 2018 Week 6 Picks

Not much to like in today’s lines. Only two bets today.

COWBOYS +150 money line over Jags.

Chiefs +3.5 over PATRIOTS.

Both of these bets are probably idiotic.

Last week: 1-4 (ouch). Season: 8-7 (including this week’s Thursday night game).

Took a real beating on last week’s picks. Will have a full slate of picks for Sunday, but tonight I’ll take the Eagles -2 over the GIANTS. Also half a bet on a teaser with the Eagles -2 and the Over at 44.5.

NFL 2018 Week 5 Picks

Falcons +155 moneyline over STEELERS Falcons are due for a big game.

Dolphins +6 over BENGALS Too many points.

Raiders +5 over CHARGERS Lot of points, and it shouldn’t even count as a home game for the Chargers.

Dallas +145 moneyline over TEXANS They both suck, so why not?

Redskins @ SAINTS OVER 53

NFL Week 4 Picks

  • Dolphins +7 over PATRIOTS. I know, I know, Miami usually gets whipped playing in Foxborough. And I can’t remember the last time the Pats lost three games in a row. But they’re 3-0 and getting 7 points.

  • COWBOYS -3 over Lions. Just shoot me if they lose this game.

  • RAIDERS -3 over Browns. The Raiders are 0-3 but they’ve been in every game. Gruden will run it up if he can.

  • Saints -3.5 over GIANTS. I’m thinking Saints win in a blowout.

  • Seahawks -3 over CARDINALS. The Cards have only scored 20 total points in three games. Their offense makes Dallas’s look good.

Last week: 2-1 (goddamn Cowboys). Season to date: 6-3.

Week 3 NFL Picks:

Saints +1.5 over FALCONS.

Colts +7.5 over EAGLES.

Cowboys +1 over SEAHAWKS.

All three are road underdogs. Still thinking about Bucs-Steelers tonight.

Season to date: 4-2.

NFL picks:

Jaguars -3 over Giants. Fuck the Giants.

Bills +7.5 over Ravens. Too many points.

Cowboys +125 moneyline over Panthers. Can’t believe Dallas isn’t favored in this one.

Inside My Pants

Walking home last night around 8:30p. Dark, but not quite fully night yet. A crew of men with hard hats and vests had removed a sidewalk grill ahead of me and were dropping a very bright light into the hole. It was an old brick sidewalk and an old access hatch.

I had to walk carefully to get around them. One of them, a big guy, was in the middle of a jovial anecdote.

“Oh yeah. One time I found one inside my pants while I was driving home!”

“In your pants, or your pocket?” said another guy.

“My pants! Right on my leg.”

Laughter all around.

I look down into the hole in the sidewalk as I pass. It was teeming with cockroaches.

Just one bet on tonight’s NCAA Men’s Final: Over 145.

I think Villanova will win, perhaps easily, but +7 seems like a lot of points.

Super Bowl 52

  1. A big bet on the Eagles moneyline at +165.

  2. A parlay on the Eagles to be winning at halftime +2.5 points, and the total halftime score to be under 24.

  3. A bunch of stupid small prop bets. My favorite: Eagles score at least once in every quarter at +300.

The remaining four NFL teams, ranked by order of their uniform designs, from best to worst:

  1. Minnesota Vikings. Classic design, distinctive colors. They should lose the trendy typeface for the jersey numbers, though. Stick with something classy.

  2. New England Patriots.

  3. Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagle’s jerseys look very 90s – the colors, the fonts, the “Eagles” logo. They never should have changed from the classic Gang Green unis.

  4. Jacksonville Jaguars. Terrible colors. Worst helmet design in the history of the league.

Today’s AFC / NFC Championship Picks

PATS -7.5 over Jags (1x bet). Not sure what’s up with Brady’s hand but come on, it’s the Jags.

EAGLES over Vikings +140 money line (2x bet). I think the Eagles have this.

Teaser: PATS -2 and EAGLES +9.5 (1x bet)

Update: Also put down a bet (before the start of either game today) on the Eagles to win the Super Bowl, at +600.


Was just now washing some dishes, and felt my phone going off in my jeans pocket. I ignored it. Whoever it is, it can wait. To hell with being a slave to devices.

Turns out, it wasn’t my phone going off. It was a staccato torrent of water, streaming over the edge of the sink, bouncing off the baking pan I was washing, soaking my right thigh.

My phone wasn’t even in my pocket.

Today's NFL Playoff Picks

2x bet on the EAGLES +3 over Falcons. Fuck this shit where the Eagles are underdogs. I think they’re going to beat the Falcons up.

1x bet on the PATRIOTS -14 over the Titans. I know it’s a ton of points, but (a) it’s the Pats, and (b) the Titans shouldn’t even be in the playoffs.

Today’s NFL playoff picks:

JAGUARS -9 over Bills SAINTS -7 over Panthers

I’ve got them both on a teaser, too.

NFL playoff picks:

Falcons +6 over the RAMS

Deep regret not taking the Titans over the Chiefs earlier. Always bet against Andy Reid in a playoff game.