Week 11 already? Jiminy. Home team in CAPS, my pick listed first. Still going with my new system from last week.

Thursday Night:

Commanders +4 vs. EAGLES ❌ – I like Washington to win straight up and love them to just keep it close enough to cover.

Sunday 1pm:

Vikings -6 vs. TITANS 2× bet – Vikes against the spread: 6-3; Titans against the spread: 1-8.

Colts +4 vs. JETS

STEELERS +3 vs. Ravens

4pm:

BRONCOS -2 vs. Falcons

BILLS -2.5 vs. Chiefs

Parlay +700 – Just rooting for a fun shootout:
- Mahomes 250+ passing yards
- Mahomes 2+ passing TDs
- Allen 250+ passing yards
- Allen 2+ passing TDs

Sunday Night Football:

CHARGERS -1.5 vs. Bengals

---

Season to date (weeks 1-10): 33-46-2
This week: TBD

You wouldn’t have wanted to bet along with my election picks, either. Home team in CAPS, my pick listed first. Still going with my new system from last week.

Early Sunday:

Falcons -3.5 vs. SAINTS ❌

Vikings -7 vs. JAGS ❌

Broncos +7 vs. CHIEFS ✅

BEARS -6.5 vs. Pats ❌

Late Sunday:

CHARGERS -8 vs. Titans ✅

CARDINALS +1.5 vs. Jets ✅

COWBOYS +8.5 vs. Eagles ❌

SNF:

Lions -3.5 vs. TEXANS ❌

---

Season to date (weeks 1-9): 30-41-2
This week: 3-5

Home team in CAPS, my pick listed first. I’m trying out a new system, and only one of the following bets is outside that system (Dallas, duh).

Cowboys +3 vs. FALCONS ❌ – They’ve got to win eventually.

Chargers -2 vs. BROWNS ✅ – Really don’t understand why the Chargers aren’t getting more respect. Harbaugh has this team playing consistently well and hard.

Commanders -4 vs. GIANTS ✅ – I feel like Washington ought to be a full TD favored here.

Broncos +9.5 vs. RAVENS ❌ – Broncos are 6-2 against the spread this season, and getting a ton of points here.

BILLS -5.5 vs. Dolphins ❌

4pm:

Bears +1.5 vs. CARDINALS ❌

Lions -2.5 vs. PACKERS ✅

Jaguars +9.5 vs. EAGLES ✅ – Mid-game bet in 3rd quarter after momentum went the Jags’ way and they cut the lead to 6.

Sunday Night Football:

Colts +5.5 vs. VIKINGS ❌ – I feel like a little bit of the start-of-season magic has worn off on the Vikes.

---

Season to date (weeks 1-8): 26-36-2
This week: 4-5

The Yankees have the Dodgers right where they want them. As for the NFL, home team in CAPS, my pick listed first:

BENGALS -2.5 vs. Eagles ❌ – I think Burrow has his shit together again.

Cardinals +4.5 vs. DOLPHINS ✅ – Tua or no Tua, I think Miami stinks.

Bills -3 vs. SEAHAWKS ✅

Bears over COMMANDERS -105 moneyline ❌ – Lost the bet but what a crazy ending.

Sunday Night Football:

Cowboys +5.5 vs. NINERS ❌ Cowboys over NINERS +210 moneyline ❌ – Setting aside my sick partisanship for the Cowboys, setting aside feelings over this rivalry, it’s a winning system in general to bet on an underdog after they suffered a blowout loss. Plus, Dallas really needed a bye week.

---

Season to date (weeks 1-7): 24-34-2
This week: 2-4

How about them Yankees?

GIANTS +3 vs. Eagles ❌

COLTS -3 vs. Dolphins ✅

+6 Teaser: ✅
COMMANDOS -4 vs. Panthers
Chiefs +8.5 vs. NINERS – I don’t get why the Niners are favored in this game.

Sunday Night:

STEELERS +2.5 vs. Jets ✅ – I really don’t get why the Jets are favored in this game.

---

Season to date (weeks 1-6): 21-33-2
This week: 3-1

Worse games this week than last week. Not many good ones.

Texans -6.5 vs. PATS ✅ – The Pats have “tanking” written all over them.

Commanders +7 vs. RAVENS 🖐️ – I love getting a full TD here.

COWBOYS +3 vs. Lions ❌ – Gotta take my boys with the points at home. Hopefully the refs will keep it fair, just like last time.

Another idiotic parlay +228: ❌ - Cowboys moneyline
- Dak Prescott 225+ yards passing
- CeeDee Lamb 70+ yarks receiving

---

Season to date (weeks 1-5): 20-31-1
This week: 1-2-1

Not many good games this week, not many picks.

Sunday:

Ravens -2.5 vs. BENGALS ✅

Bills over TEXANS +100 moneyline ❌

+6 Teaser: ❌ Hmm, what if the Giants … aren’t half bad? - BRONCOS +3 vs. Raiders
- SEAHAWKS -1 vs. Giants

Sunday Night Football:

Cowboys +2.5 vs. STEELERS ✅ – This feels like a bad matchup for Dallas, to be honest.

Some rotten luck in the early games so I’m laying down two parlays:

Parlay +425 ❌
- Cowboys moneyline
- Dak Prescott 240.5+ passing yards
- 1+ Ceedee Lamb touchdown catch

Parlay +350 ❌
- Cowboys moneyline
- Dak Prescott 240.5+ passing yards
- Ceedee Lamb 75.5+ receiving yards

(Lost both parlays on the Lamb legs – he finished with 62 yards, no TDS. I’ll take it.)

Monday Night Football:

Saints over CHIEFS +200 moneyline ❌ – Chiefs have been begging to lose a game.

---

Season to date (weeks 1-4): 18-26-1
This week: 2-5

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Thursday Night Football:

Cowboys -5.5 vs. GIANTS 4× bet ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌ – My best honest take on the McCarthy-era Cowboys is that they’re awesome at running up the score when playing bad teams and get their asses handed to them when playing good teams. The Giants are not a good team. So, bomb’s away. Lost by the dreaded hook, with Brandon Aubrey – without question the best kicker in the league today, arguably the best kickers the NFL has ever seen – missing a 50-yarder in the final minute that would’ve covered the spread. So it goes.

Sunday:

BUCS over Eagles -105 moneyline ✅

Rams +3 vs. BEARS ❌

Vikings +2.5 vs. PACKERS ✅

Steelers -2.5 vs. COLTS ❌

CHARGERS +7 vs. Chiefs 🖐️

Sunday Night Football:

Bills +2.5 vs. RAVENS 2× bet ❌

Parlay +550 ❌
- Bills moneyline
- Josh Allen 150+ passing yards
- James Cook 50+ rushing yards

Monday Night Football:

Seahawks +4.5 vs. LIONS ❌

---

Season to date (weeks 1-3): 16-17
This week: 2-1-9

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Sunday:

SAINTS -2.5 vs. Eagles ❌

VIKINGS +1.5 vs. Texans ✅

Broncos +6 vs. Bucs ✅ — Almost took the moneyline on this one. Some of these 0-2 teams are going to win today, and I think Denver should be one of them.

STEELERS -2.5 vs. Chargers ✅ — The Chargers are banged up already and the Steelers have shown the best defense in the league thus far.

COWBOYS over Ravens +105 moneyline (2× bet) ❌ ❌

RAMS +6.5 vs. Niners ✅

MNF:

Jags +5.5 vs. BILLS ❌
Jags over BILLS +200 moneyline ❌ – Feels like a do-or-die game for Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson. Otherwise Belichick is going to start scouting for a house near Jacksonville. Bills seems pretty banged up too.

---

Season to date (weeks 1-2): 12-12
This week: 4-5

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Thursday Night:

Bills +2.5 vs. DOLPHINS ✅ – Bet the better quarterback.

Sunday:

COMMANDERS -1.5 vs. Giants ✅ — The Garbage Bowl of the NFC East. Dan Quinn is great at coaching defenses against sub-par offenses, and the Giants’ offense is far below par.

Jets -3.5 vs. TITANS ✅ — Rodgers is going to be desperate to show he still has it.

Chargers -4.5 vs. PANTHERS ✅ — I think the Chargers are just plain good.

RAVENS -8.5 vs. Raiders ❌ — A lot of points, but the Ravens ought to be pretty fired up after last week and last year.

JAGUARS -3 vs. Browns ❌

COWBOYS -6.5 vs. Saints 2× bet ❌ ❌

Rams -1 vs. CARDINALS ❌

CHIEFS -6.5 vs. Bengals ❌ — Bengals and Burrow in particular really stunk it up last week.

Steelers -2.5 vs. BRONCOS ✅

---

Season to date (week 1): 7-6
This week: 5-6

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Season:

Cowboys over 10.5 wins (+150, 2× bet to win 5×) - The painfully obvious beef against the Cowboys is that they play embarrassingly bad in the playoffs, every damn year. But they’ve finished 12-5 each of the last three years. And their defense should be better this year, without that idiot Dan Quinn as coordinator.

Cowboys to win Super Bowl (+1000, 10× bet to win 200×) - Hope springs eternal.

Eagles under 10.5 wins (+120) - The Eagles finished last season 1-6, beating only the Giants in that stretch, and got crushed by Tampa in the playoffs. I think there’s a decent chance that stretch wasn’t a fluke, but instead a sign of the league figuring this team out.

Giants under 5.5 wins (+155) – I do not think much of Danny Dimes as a quarterback, nor much of the Giants offensive line.

Thursday Night:

CHIEFS -3 vs. Ravens ✅
CHIEFS-Ravens UNDER 46.5 ❌ — The Chiefs beat the Ravens 17-10 in the playoffs and in last year’s Thursday Night opener, lost to the Lions 21-20. I think it takes a few weeks for offenses to gel but great defenses play great right out of the gate.

Friday Night Brazilian Special:

Packers +2.5 vs. EAGLES ❌

Sunday:

Vikings -1.5 vs. GIANTS ✅ – Might be like taking candy from a baby betting against the Giants this month.

Steelers +3.5 vs. FALCONS ✅ – In Mike Tomlinson I trust.

Jaguars +3.5 vs. DOLPHINS ✅ – Kinda thinking Tua is only good against bad teams.

BENGALS -7.5 vs. Patriots ❌ – Oh this is so, so fun betting against the Pats now.

CHARGERS -3 vs. Raiders ✅ – I think the Raiders are a mess.

Cowboys +2.5 vs. BROWNS 2× bet ✅ ✅ – Come on, man.

Parlay +290 ❌
- Cowboys moneyline
- Prescott 2+ passing TDs
- Prescott 200+ passing yards

Rams +4.5 vs. LIONS ❌ – Gut feeling on this one.

MNF:

Jets +3.5 vs. NINERS ❌ – Sure hope Rodgers lasts more than 3 plays this year.

---

This week: 7-6

2023 regular season betting record: 67–81–3
2023 final record, including playoffs: 87-109-3

Fucking-A man, it’s America’s National Gambling Day. Let’s win some money.

Chiefs +2 vs. Frisco 6× bet ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ — Always bet the better QB. It’s that simple.

Parlay +850 ❌
- Purdy 1+ INTs - Mahomes UNDER 278.5 yards passing
- Kelce 78.5+ receiving yards
- Kelce 6.5+ receptions

Parlay +360 ❌ - UNDER 47
- KC + 1.5 - Mahomes under 263.5 yds passing

Season to date (regular season + playoffs): 81-107-3
This week: 6-2
Season total, including Super Bowl: 87-109-3

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.

Chiefs +4.5 vs. RAVENS ✅ – I think there’s a high likelihood of the Ravens winning but the Chiefs covering. I like Mahomes to win any big game, but I love Mahomes to keep the Chiefs close in any big game. Let’s say the Ravens are up by 10 with 7 minutes to play. Do you really think the Chiefs aren’t going to score a touchdown to make it 3?

Parlay +850 ❌
+ Mahomes 250+ passing yards
- Mahomes 25+ rushing yards
+ Lamar 200+ passing yards
+ Lamar 50+ rushing yards
- Chiefs OVER 20.5 points
- Ravens OVER 20.5 points

Teaser -120 ✅
• Chiefs +10.5 vs. RAVENS
• Lions +13.5 vs. NINERS

Lions +7 vs. NINERS ✅ Lions +280 moneyline ❌ – What an incredible Cinderella story. This unknown comes outta nowhere to lead the pack at Augusta. He’s at the final hole. He’s about 455 yards away, he’s gonna hit about a two iron, I think…

Parlay +450 ❌ • Lions moneyline
• Purdy 1+ INTs

Season to date (regular season + playoffs): 78-104-3
This week: 3-3

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.

Saturday:

RAVENS -10 vs. Texans ✅ – Every year there’s one underdog that surprises everyone in the first round, and then falls back to earth in the second. I think that’s the these young Texans this year.

Parlay +415 ❌
+ RAVENS -7
+ Lamar Jackson: 40+ rushing yards
- Lamar Jackson: 225+ passing yards
- CJ Stroud: 225+ passing yards

Teaser -120 2× bet ✅ ✅
+ RAVENS -4 vs. Texans • Packers +16 vs. NINERS

Parlay +625 2× bet ❌ ❌ — Praise Jeebus let Dallas’s defense last week have been a legit test for this Packers offense.
+ Packers +9.5 vs. NINERS
- Jordan Love: 250+ passing yards
+ Aaron Jones: 80+ rushing yards

Parlay +800 ❌
+ Packers +10.5
- Jordan Love: 250+ passing yards
- Christian McCaffrey: 100+ rushing yards
+ Christian McCaffrey: anytime TD scorer

Sunday:

LIONS -4.5 vs. Bucs ✅ — I got a lower spread because I waited until after the game started to get this in.

Parlay +256 ❌
+ LIONS -3.5 vs. Bucs
- BILLS -2.5 vs. Chiefs

BILLS -2.5 vs. Chiefs ❌ — This is a great match, and probably the best rivalry in the league right now. I’m just betting the Bills because I’m rooting for them. That’s it.

Parlay +800 ❌
- BILLS moneyline
+ OVER 39.5 total points
- Mahomes: 250+ passing yards
+ Mahomes: 1.5+ TD passes
- Allen: 227.5+ passing yards
+ Allen: 25+ rushing yards

Parlay +1200 ❌
- BILLS -2.5
- Mahomes: 250+ passing yards
+ Mahomes: 1.5+ TD passes
- Allen: 225+ passing yards
+ Allen: anytime TD scorer

Season to date (regular season + playoffs): 74-96-3
This week: 4-8

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.

Saturday:

Browns -2.5 vs. TEXANS 2× bet ❌ ❌ – The Browns scored just under 22 points per game pre-Flacco. With Flacco, they’re averaging just over 29. That’s a full TD per game. Also, Tom Brady holds the NFL record for road playoff wins: 7. But he’s tied for that record with … Joe Fucking Flacco. That’s right – if the Browns win, Joe Flacco becomes the winningest road quarterback in NFL history. (Super Bowls obviously don’t count as road games.) CJ Stroud impressed last week on national TV against Indy, but the Texans as a team did not. Indy should have won that game but choked – on the field and especially on the sidelines – in the final 5 minutes. Also, I think the Browns have a championship-caliber defense, and will put pressure on Stroud he won’t handle.

Parlay +750 ❌
- Browns -0.5 first half
- Browns win game
- Flacco: 2+ passing TDs
+ Flacco: 250+ passing yards
- Amari Cooper: 77+ receiving yards

CHIEFS -4.5 vs. Dolphins 2× bet ✅ ✅
CHIEFS -13 vs. Dolphins ✅ ✅ +243 alternate line – First, Miami’s defense is seriously banged up. Second, weather. I read up on it and it turns out that warm-weather and dome teams actually perform pretty well against the point spread in cold weather. But Tua Tagovailoa? 0-6 in sub-45°F games, with miserable stats. There’s a paper tiger aspect to the Dolphins too: they only beat one playoff team all season, a 22-20 squeaker over Dallas on Christmas Eve. (That said, the Chiefs only beat one playoff team, too – the Dolphins, 21-14, back on November 5.)

Sunday:

COWBOYS -7 vs. Packers 2× bet ❌ ❌ – In a sense the Cowboys can’t lose today. Either they win the game and head to the divisional round with another home game, or the Joneses fire McCarthy and Bill Belichick comes to Big D, just like his mentor Bill Parcells did. (We won’t talk about how many Super Bowls Parcells went to in Dallas.) The Packers of the last two months are a scary team. They opened a serious can of whip-ass on Detroit on national TV on Thanksgiving. Jordan Love’s numbers have been amazing. But Dallas should win this game handily. The soft spot in Green Bay’s defense is the middle of the field, and Dak Prescott loves throwing over the middle, and CeeDee Lamb loves running routes up the middle.

COWBOYS +120 moneyline ❌ ❌ – Throwing good money after bad while Green Bay is sitting on a 14-0 lead.

Parlay +500 ❌ – If you told me the other 6 legs of this parlay would hit, I’d have said Dallas was a lock to win the game. But they got killed. Just humiliated. What a crazy game.
- Cowboys moneyline
+ Cowboys over 27.5 points
+ Prescott: 255+ passing yards
+ Prescott: 2+ passing TDs
+ Lamb: 85+ receiving yards
+ Ferguson: 40+ receiving yards
+ Pollard: 50+ rushing yards

Rams +3 vs. LIONS 2× bet ✅ ✅
Rams -6.5 alternate line (+300) ❌ – LaPorta being out is a killer for the Lions. Not a national household name yet but he was the best tight end in the NFL this year, and I think the Lions’ best receiver period. Plus, if anyone knows Jared Goff’s weaknesses, it’s Sean McVay. Well, LaPorta played – and caught a huge TD. Great game though.

Parlay +700 ❌
+ Rams +3
+ Stafford: 2+ passing TDs
+ Stafford: 279+ passing yards
- Kupp: 60+ receiving yards
+ Nacua: 70+ receiving yards

Monday:

Parlay -135 ❌
+ BILLS -3 (alternate spread) vs. Steelers
- UNDER 44 total points (alternate O/U)

Parlay +220 ❌
+ BILLS -7
- Josh Allen: 225+ passing yards
+ Stefon Diggs: 50+ receiving yards

Parlay +600 ❌
+ BILLS -9.5
- Josh Allen: 225+ passing yards
+ Josh Allen: anytime TD scorer
- Stefon Diggs: 67+ receiving yards

BUCS +2.5 vs. Eagles ✅ – Jalen Hurts has been playing badly, now his middle finger is all messed up on his throwing hand, and AJ Brown – the Eagles’ best receiver by far – is out of the game with an injury. The Eagles secondary seemingly can’t cover anyone, and Baker Mayfield looks pretty good. I like the Bucs to win and Mayfield to have a standout day.

Parlay +550 ❌
+ BUCS +7 (alternate line)
+ Mayfield: 275+ passing yards
- Chris Godwin: 50+ receiving yards
- Mike Evans: 70+ receiving yards

Parlay +1200 ❌
+ BUCS: +2.5
+ Mayfield: 2+ TD passes
+ Mayfield: 275+ yards passing
- Hurts: anytime TD scorer

Season to date (regular season): 67-81-3
This week: 7-15

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics. Not looking good for a winning regular season.

Saturday:

RAVENS to beat Steelers +130 moneyline ❌

Texans -1 vs. COLTS ✅ – Bet the better quarterback.

Parlay +675 ❌ — This one came within a missed PAT and 11 passing yards of hitting.
+ Texans moneyline
- Texans OVER 23.5 points
+ Texans OVER 2.5 TDs
- C.J. Stroud 275+ passing yards
+ Nico Collins 80.5+ receiving yards
+ Dalton Schultz 40+ receiving yards

Sunday:

Buccaneers -4.5 at PANTHERS ✅ — It’s a win-and-in for the Bucs and another “throw your drink at angry fans” game for the Panthers.

Jags -3.5 vs. TITANS ❌ — I’ve lost a small fortune betting the Jags this season but I think they’ll win big here. Welp, now I’ve lost a larger fortune betting the Jags.

GIANTS to beat Eagles +190 moneyline ✅ ✅ — This is the Giants’ “playoff”, a chance to beat their despised division rival. And the Eagles have stunk for two months.

Bears to beat PACKERS +130 moneyline ❌ — Same thing for the Bears as the Giants: a season-ending chance to spoil things for a rival. Only difference is the Packers don’t stink like the Eagles do.

Cowboys -13 vs. COMMANDERS — ✅ Dallas knows how to win big.

Dak Prescott: 271.5+ passing yards ✅

Cowboys-COMMANDERS Parlay +800 ❌
+ Cowboys -7.5
- Dak Prescott 11.5+ rushing yards (Fuuuuuuck)
+ CeeDee Lamb 80+ receiving yards
+ Brandin Cooks 25+ receiving yards
+ Jake Ferguson 25+ receiving yards
+ Tony Pollard 50+ rushing yards
+ Dallas 3.5+ TDs

Bills-DOLPHINS Parlay +900 ❌
- Over 47.5 total points
+ Bills 2.5+ TDs - Tua 1.5+ TD passes
- Tua 250+ passing yards
+ Allen 1.5+ TD passes
+ Allen 243.5+ passing yards
+ Stefan Diggs 63.5+ receiving yards

Season to date (weeks 1-17): 61-75-3
This week: 6-6

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Thursday Night Football:

BROWNS -7 vs. Jets ✅ – Joe Flacco, baby. (Second week in a row I forgot to blog my TNF pick before the game but you know I’m good for it.)

Saturday:

COWBOYS -4.5 vs. Lions 2× bet ❌ ❌
COWBOYS to beat Lions -225 moneyline 4× bet ✅ ✅ – We’re not going to dig out of this season’s hole sitting on our hands.

Parlay +575 ❌
- Cowboys moneyline
- Dak: 250+ passing yards
x Dak: 15.5+ rushing yards
- Lamb: 80+ receiving yards
x Pollard: 57.5 rushing yards

Sunday:

Dolphins to beat RAVENS +145 moneyline ❌

Rams -6.5 vs. GIANTS ❌

Teaser +160 2× bet ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
- Pats +20 vs. BILLS
- BEARS +3.5 vs Falcons
- Rams 0 vs. GIANTS

CHIEFS -5.5 vs. Bengals 2× bet ✅ ✅

Season to date (weeks 1-16): 52-70-3
This week: 9-5

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Thursday Night Football:

RAMS -4 vs. Saints ✅ – Rams are kicking ass in the second half of the season. (Forgot to post this until today (Saturday), so you’ll have to take my word for it, but you know I don’t fib about these bets. I mean, christ, I’m 15 bets under .500 for the season.)

Saturday:

Bengals -3 vs. STEELERS ❌ – The Bengals have a QB problem but the Steelers have a QB fiasco. All credit to Mason Rudolph: the kid looked great and was dropping dimes to his receivers all game.

Bills -12.5 vs. CHARGERS ❌ – The Chargers are toast, done, and the Bills are hot and healthy. Jiminy christ.

Sunday:

JETS -3 vs. Commanders ❌ – The Jets are fighting and the Commanders have packed their bags for the off-season.

Lions -3 vs. VIKINGS ✅ – I’ve never lost money betting on Jared Goff. Oh, wait…

Cowboys +1 vs. DOLPHINS ❌ ❌ 2× pick of the week – Dallas has been rebounding after each loss this season, and let’s face it, Miami is a fraud with a weak schedule.

Teaser +400 ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
- JETS +3
- Lions +3.5
- Seahawks +3
- BEARS +2
- Cowboys +7

Monday 🎄:

Teaser +160 ❌ ❌ 2× bet
- CHIEFS -4.5
- Giants +20
- Ravens +12.5

Raiders-CHIEFS OVER 39.5 ❌ — Do we bet the over/under thinking about the Raiders that lost a 3-0 game to the Vikings two weeks ago, or the team that scored 63 against the Chargers last week? I say go optimistic.

Teaser +360 ❌
- CHIEFS -10.5
- Over 41.5
- Travis Swift to score a TD

*That’s what I get for banking on the Chiefs. OK, starting over at 4pm:

Giants over EAGLES +650 moneyline ❌ – No regrets, this almost hit.

Parlay +600 ❌
- Giants +14.5
- Tommy Cutlets 1+ passing TDs
- Tommy Cutlets 224.5+ passing yards

Teaser -130 2.5× bet ✅ ✅
- Giants +20
- Ravens +12.5

Season to date (weeks 1-15): 44-59-3
This week: 8-11

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Saturday:

BENGALS -3 vs. Vikings ✋ — I just don’t see it happening for the Vikes down the stretch.

COLTS -1 vs. Steelers ✅ — Feel like the wheels are coming off the bus for the Steelers. Mitch Trubisky trubiskied this one good.

Broncos +5 vs. LIONS ❌ — The Lions just got smoked by the Bears. And the last time they played on national TV, Thanksgiving, they embarrassed themselves against the Packers. Feels like a team of big-game chokers. Meanwhile, Denver has looked like a good team since October. Jiminy was this a beatdown or what?

Teaser +160 ❌
- Bengals +3
- Colts +5
- Broncos +11

Sunday:

Giants +6 vs. SAINTS ❌ — Tommy Cutlets! I should have my goddamn head examined for betting on this team of misfits.

RAMS -6.5 vs. Commanders ✅ — The Rams are playing great the last two months, fighting for the playoffs, and the Commanders smell like a team that’s given up for the year.

Cowboys +2 vs. BILLS ❌ — The Bills are better than their record indicates, but they’re not top-tier. Weather forecast looks downright warm for December in Buffalo: high 40s. (Would be a fun prop bet if they set the over/under as the temperature at kickoff.) Also: Dallas has a 21-game winning streak on artificial turf.

Teaser +600 ❌
- DOLPHINS -1 vs. Jets
- Chiefs -4 @ PATS
- Giants +12 @ SAINTS
- RAMS -0.5 vs. Commanders
- 49ers -5.5 @ CARDINALS
- Cowboys +8 @ BILLS

Teaser +525 ❌
- Cowboys moneyline
- Dak Prescott 2+ passing TDs
- Dak Prescott 229.5+ passing yards
- Josh Allen 229.5+ passing yards
- Tony Pollard 39.5+ rushing yards
- CeeDee Lamb 69.5+ receiving yards

Season to date (weeks 1-14): 42-53-2 Last week: 4-6
This week: 2-6-1

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics. Finally hit a teaser last week, so getting even on the season is maybe within sight.

Thursday Night Football:

Pats-STEELERS UNDER 30 ❌ – This is the lowest NFL over/under since 2005, but deservedly so. My god: the Pats are scoring an average of just 12.3 points per game this season; the Steelers just 16. But it gets worse. Here are the Pats’s scores from the last three weeks: 6-10 (Colts), 7-10 (Giants), 0-6 (Chargers). The Steelers over the last three weeks: 10-24 (Cardinals), 16-10 (Bengals), 10-13 (Browns). Both teams are playing backup quarterbacks (although for the Pats, that’s probably an upgrade), and both teams have defenses that are kicking ass. So I’m not overthinking it: just betting the Under. Welp, this was a bust, but if I had it to do all over again I’d have bet 2× on the Under. If these teams played 10 times I don’t think they’d go over 30 more than twice.

Sunday:

Texans -3.5 vs. JETS ❌ – C’mon, it’s the Jets.

Jaguars-BROWNS OVER 37.5 ✅ – Who doesn’t have Joe Flacco fever?

Rams to beat RAVENS +290 moneyline ❌ – Rams are playing pretty good the last month. Lost on an overtime punt return. Jiminy.

Seahawks +14 vs. NINERS ✅ – So many points.

Bills-CHIEFS OVER 49 ❌ – I think it’s the Chiefs’ fault this over/under isn’t higher, but their offense is going to break out eventually.

Teaser +260 ❌
- Rams +13.5 win
- Texans +2.5 fucking Jets!
- Seahawks +20 win
- Bills +8 win

Sunday Night Football:

COWBOYS to beat Eagles -166 moneyline ✅
COWBOYS -3 vs. Eagles ✅ — Had to take this at -120 to get it down from 3.5.

Teaser +700 ❌
- Cowboys moneyline
- Dak Prescott 275+ yards passing
- Dak Prescott 14.5+ yards rushing
- CeeDee Lamb 80+ yards receiving
- Tony Pollard 58.5+ yards rushing

Season to date (weeks 1-13): 38-47-2 Last week: 9-3
This week: 4-6

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Thursday Night Football:

COWBOYS -9 vs. Seahawks ❌

COWBOYS -5.5 vs. Seahawks ✅ – Tacked on live after the Seahawks got lucky and took a 7-3 lead.

COWBOYS over Seahawks -250 moneyline ✅ – Tacked on at halftime.

Parlay +320: ❌ – Lost by one point on the alternate line.
- COWBOYS -7 alternate line
- Dak Prescott 1.5+ passing TDs
- Dak Prescott 283.5+ passing yards
- CeeDee Lamb 70+ receiving yards

Sunday:

Dolphins -8.5 vs. COMMANDERS ✅ — Ron Rivera has his bags packed.

Lions -4 vs. SAINTS ✅ — Looking for Detroit to bounce back after their embarrassing game on Thanksgiving.

Chargers -4.5 vs. PATS ✅ — Time to dance on Belichick’s grave. 6-0! What an absolute turd of a football game. Can you even imagine sitting in the cold windy stands in Foxborough to watch this?

Broncos -3 vs. TEXANS ❌ — Play this many good games in a row and I believe.

Niners-EAGLES OVER 47 ✅

Teaser +400 2× bet ❌ ❌
- Steelers +0
- Miami -2.5
- Broncos +9.5
- Eagles +9
- Chiefs +1

Teaser +450 1.1× bet ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
- Niners-EAGLES over 46.5
- McCaffrey 1+ TDs
- Purdy 254.5+ passing yards
- Hurts 236.5+ passing yards

Season to date (weeks 1-10): 29-44-2 This week: 9-3

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Thanksgiving:

TEASER: 2× bet ❌ ❌
LIONS -2.5 vs. Packers
COWBOYS -7.5 vs. Commanders — Gotta get some skin in this game. Teaser feels right.

COWBOYS -13.5 vs. Commanders ✅ — Let’s see how far Dallas can stretch this “run up the score against bad teams” thing. Also: most interesting stat I’ve read this week is that Ron Rivera has only ever had two winning seasons as a head coach. He’s on pace to get fired before this season ends.

TEASER: ❌
COWBOYS -7.5 vs. Commanders
SEAHAWKS +13 vs. San Fran — This will look pretty smart if Dallas cruises.

Black Friday:

Dolphins -9.5 vs. JETS ✅

Parlay +375: ❌ – Came close on this, but somehow Miami scored 34 with Tua only throwing 1 TD.
- Dolphins -9.5
- T. Hill: 80+ receiving yards
- Tagovailoa: 2+ passing TDs

Sunday:

Steelers -2.5 vs. BENGALS ✅ – Always bet against a backup QB.

Bills +3 vs. EAGLES ✋ – I’m part betting on the Bills because I’ll be rooting for them, but also because I think they’re a better team than 6-5. They’re right there with the Eagles on point differential for the season.

Teaser +575 ❌ – Came within a hair of winning this one. Who’d have thought the Bills would score 34 and Allen would only throw 1 TD pass? Fucking gambling.
- Bills moneyline
- Stefon Diggs TD
- Stefon Diggs 67.5+ receiving yards
- Josh Allen 1.5+ ADs

Chiefs -9 vs. RAIDERS ✅ – After that brutal loss to the Eagles I expect KC to come roaring back, especially on the passing game. My only regret here is that I didn’t double-down with a live moneyline bet after the Chiefs fell behind 14-0.

Ravens -3 vs. CHARGERS ✅ – The Chargers are fun to watch, but you tend to watch them lose. The Ravens are starting to look like legit contenders this year.

Parlay +4542 ❌ – This is like buying a lottery ticket but I gotta dig out of this season hole somehow.
- Steelers -2.5
- Jaguars -1.5
- Patriots -4.5
- Chiefs -9
- Bills +3
- Ravens -3

Teaser +600 ❌ – A cover-my-ass lottery ticket. Never betting on the Patriots again. Almost had it.
- Steelers +3.5
- Jaguars +4.5
- Patriots +1.5
- Chiefs -3
- Bills +9
- Ravens +3

Teaser: +160 2× bet ✅ ✅ ✅ – A cover-my-ass’s covering of my ass.
- Chiefs -3
- Bills +9
- Ravens +3

Season to date (weeks 1-10): 21-37-1 This week: 8-7-1

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics. And at 17-28-1 for the season thus far, it’s time to call it: I feel like I have the NFL right where I want it.

Thursday Night Football:

Bengals +3.5 vs. RAVENS ❌
Bengals-RAVENS Under 46 ❌ – Two separate straight bets, not a parlay. Stat of the week: primetime game unders are 25-7 this season and 164-102-3 since 2019. I’ve been getting killed this season betting my gut feelings, so I might as well bet the trend on this one. (Also: Burrow is a career 36-21-1 against the spread.) Sidenote: Great to see Al Michaels finally get a good game to call. Man if I were a head coach I’d be fired after that game.

Sunday: Picking a bunch of home favorites, and, to hell with it, the Cowboys:

Cowboys -11 vs. PANTHERS ✅ — One thing the Cowboys have been really good at this season: running up the score against bad teams.

TEXANS -5.5 vs. Cardinals ❌

LIONS -8 vs. Bears ❌

BROWNS -2 vs. Steelers ✅

BILLS -8 vs. Jets ✅

Monday Night Football:

CHIEFS -2.5 vs. Eagles ❌

Season to date (weeks 1-10): 18-32-1 This week: 3-5

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics. And at 17-28-1 for the season thus far, it’s time to call it: I feel like I have the NFL right where I want it.

JAGUARS +3 vs. Niners ❌ – Spitball theory: it took all the gas out of the Niners’ tank to whip the mighty Cowboys last month. They haven’t looked good since. And I’ll reiterate my Doug Pederson Fan Club membership.

Browns +6 vs. RAVENS ✅ – Just a gut feeling that the Browns might keep it close.

BENGALS -5.5 vs. Texans 2× pick of the week ❌ ❌ – I got Joe Burrow fever. He was obviously hurt at the beginning of the season, and he’s all healed now, but I feel like these lines aren’t factoring that in.

BILLS -7 vs. Broncos ❌ – I was half tempted to wait until tomorrow to see if this would drop to 6.5, but half afraid it would go to 7.5, so I bet it now. No way the Bills come out of last week’s disappointing loss to the Bengals without a strong showing on MNF.

Season to date (weeks 1-9): 17-28-1 This week: 1-4

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Rams +3.5 vs. PACKERS ❌ – I think the Rams are the best bad team in the league.

Seahawks +6 vs. RAVENS ❌ – I’ll take the points.

Cowboys +3 vs. EAGLES 2× pick of the week ❌ ❌ – What else am I going to do? But seriously I like this Dallas defense a lot.

BENGALS -2 vs. Bills ✅ – Going with the hotter team.

Season to date (weeks 1-8): 16-24-1 This week: 1-4