Last week of the regular season, and after spending most of the season 10+ games under .500 – bottoming out at 33–46–2 after week 10 – I turned it around my season picks are sitting at 78-76-4. It turns out I’ve got a sizable (10-unit) side bet on my finishing above .500 in the regular season. I could sit this week out or bet just one game and guarantee a win on that side bet, but that’s chickenshit. In 1941, Ted Williams woke up the morning of the final day of the season sitting on a .39955 batting average. His manager offered to let him sit, and protect a batting average that would round up to .400. Williams instead played both games and went 6-for-8, finishing the season at .406. I’m betting. (Also worth noting that 78-76, I’m still around 5.5 games in the hole counting the vig.) Update: Turns out I made an honest mistake back in week 14 – long story – but I was only 77-77-4 heading into this week. Jiminy.
The last week of the NFL season is always a weird one. The best teams, generally, having nothing to play for. (Sunday night’s epic matchup with the 14-2 Vikings at the 14-2 Lions is the rare exception.) Most teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, and have little to play for but pride. And the worst teams are really facing clear motivation to just go in the tank and get the highest draft pick they can.
There are four games Sunday with absolutely no playoff implications: JAX-IND, BUF-NE, NYG-PHI, and SF-ARZ. I can’t see betting on any of them. But: maybe that BUF-NE is interesting, because the Pats – back to their rightful place as a perennial sad sack loser of a franchise – guarantee themselves the top draft pick with a loss.
All of the remaining games have some sort of playoff implications, most of them related to seeding. I found a great website – the aptly named NFL Playoff Scenarios – that offers super simple, super clear explanations of every team’s situation. One example: if the Bengals beat the Steelers Saturday night, the Chargers can take the AFC 5 seed with a win vs. the Raiders Sunday. That would get them a first round playoff game against the totally meh Houston Texans, instead of a game in Baltimore against the Ravens, a legit Super Bowl contender. But if the Steelers win Saturday night, the Chargers have bupkis to play for this week, as they’ll be locked into a Harbaugh-Harbaugh rematch in Baltimore. (Which presumes the Ravens beat the lowly Browns in the early Saturday game, of course.)
Anyway, Home team in CAPS, my pick listed first. Postgame comments, if any, in italics.
Saturday:
STEELERS over Bengals +125 moneyline ❌ – This is a tough one to call. On the surface, momentum clearly looks to favor the Bengals, who’ve won 4 straight, while the Steelers have dropped 3 straight, and none of those losses were even close. But the 4 straight wins for the Bengals haven’t exactly been against all-pro-laden teams: Cowboys, Titans, Browns, Broncos. And the Steelers’ 3 straight losses have been against some of the NFL’s very best teams: Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs. In a perverse way I think that favors the Steelers? — Dumb mistake on my part betting the moneyline instead of the +2.5 spread; the Steelers covered by the hook.
Sunday 1pm:
COWBOYS +7 vs. Commanders ✅ – Shit season for Dallas, no bones about it. And downright embarrassing at home, where they’re 2-6 and -116 on point differential. And they got their asses handed to them last week here in Philly. But I think it makes a difference that they’re playing at home, I think it makes a difference that the players seems to have genuinely rallied around Mike McCarthy (we fans sure haven’t), and I think it makes a difference that every single team in the NFC East fucking hates each other. Washington has a big seeding difference at stake though: with a win they get the 6th seed and a playoff matchup at the Rams or Bucs. That’s a really sweet wildcard seed. If they lose, Green Bay can take the 6th seed with a win against the lowly Bears. Whichever of Washington or Green Bay gets stuck with the 7th seed has to play the Eagles in Philly. That’s a shitty wildcard seed. I wish it were a full 7, but I’ll take Dallas with the 6.5 points, but only because I’m an idiot Cowboys fan. Update: I bet this Saturday at +6.5 but when the line moved to +7, I cashed in the original bet for $5 and re-bet at +7; I’m happy to pay $5 for that hook.
Bills -3.5 vs. PATRIOTS ❌ – Sad sacks gonna sad-sack, and the Pats are the biggest sad sacks in the league. And that’s saying something in a league with the Titans and Jets. The top-tier teams have really good second-team players, too.
Texans +1.5 vs. TITANS ✅ – The Titans are 3-13 overall, but more interestingly, a spectacular 2-14 against the spread this season. They’re both very bad and, somehow, highly overrated. The entire purpose of the point spread is that it’s an equalizer, but somehow not for Tennessee. Plus they take the number one draft pick if they lose and the Pats beat the Bills. So I see betting the Texans here as a bit of a hedge against my Bills bet. Someone’s going to tank.
Sunday late games:
Chargers -7 vs. RAIDERS ✅ – This line jumped to -7 from -4 after the Steelers lost last night, because if the Steelers had won, the Chargers would’ve been locked into the 6th seed and a first-round game against the Ravens in Baltimore. But with the Steelers having lost, now the Chargers have something to play for: a win today gets them the 5th seed and much better first-round matchup in Houston. (If the Steelers had won, though, I think the line would’ve jumped a full touchdown to something like Raiders -3, because the Chargers would’ve rested all their stars.)
SNF:
Vikings +3 vs. LIONS ❌ – What a game to just land on week 18. Amazing. I’m betting the Vikes for their defense and the general vibe that they feel like the hotter team right now.
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Season to date (weeks 1-17): 77-77-4
This week: 3-3
Regular season final record: 80-80-4
