My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.

Saturday:

Rams -10 vs. PANTHERS ❌ – There should be a rule that if any team wins its division but has a losing record (like the 8-9 Panthers), they don’t qualify for the playoffs. Add another wildcard team with a winning record. I’m betting the Rams on general principle, but also because looking at season point differentials (Rams: +172, Panthers -69) you can argue that the line ought to be more like -14.

BEARS +2 vs. Packers ✅ – What a fun game that was to watch having bet on the Bears. What a sickening experience it must have been for Packers fans. That must be the biggest playoff choke since the Falcons blew that 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl to the Patriots.

Sunday:

Bills-JAGS OVER 51.5 ❌ – Whoever wins this game is probably the team I’ll root for the rest of the way, and I genuinely think the winner of this game is likely to play in the Super Bowl. (Give me a break with the fucking Broncos. Weakest #1 seed in years.) So today I’ll just bet the over and hope for a fun shootout. The goddamn hook got me.

Niners +6 vs. EAGLES ✅
Niners beat EAGLES +225 moneyline ✅ ✅ – The Niners were 6-2 in the last 8 games of the season; the Eagles were 4-4, which included a 13-12 turd of a win over the Bills. I love the Niners +6, and I like them to flat out win. These playoffs aren’t really AFC-NFC – I think they’re AFC-NFC West.

Chargers +3.5 vs. PATS ❌ – I’m just rooting for the Chargers here. I can’t argue this is a good bet. But still, as good as Vrabel has the Patriots playing, their season schedule was just historically weak. The Pats only played 4 games against playoff teams all year – lost to Steelers, beat Panthers, beat Bills, lost to Bills. I think it’s a mystery what either of these teams is going to look like today.

MNF:

STEELERS +3 vs. Texans ❌
STEELERS-Texans OVER 38 ❌ – Betting the over feels smart. Betting the Steelers +3 is just my rooting interest against Houston.

—
Regular season final record: 70–60 (.538)
This week: 4-5