Slim pickings this week. I enjoy the fact that I’m betting BAL-DAL and PHI-CHI. (But it’s always mildly annoyed me that Philly’s three-letter abbreviation isn’t PHL, like the airport.)

Cowboys +3.5 vs. Ravens – I refuse to count a game in Brazil as a “home” game.

Parlay +480
- Dallas moneyline
- Prescott: 1.5+ TD passes
- Prescott: 265.5+ yards passing

SNF:

Rams -1.5 vs. BRONCOS

MNF:

BEARS +4 vs. Eagles

–––
Season to date: 12-7
This week: TBD

5-0 start last week and then, well, christ. My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

TNF:

BILLS -5.5 vs. Lions ✅ – It’s early but I think this might be the Bills’ year.

Sunday:

Steelers +5.5 vs. PATS ❌ – I think the Pats were a fluke last year and going from the easiest schedule in the league to a Super Bowl (loser) schedule is going to prove a bitch.

BEARS -4.5 vs. Vikings ❌

Jags +2.5 vs. BRONCOS ❌

COWBOYS -4 vs. Commanders ✅

Parlay +480 ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
- Dallas moneyline
- CeeDee Lamb: 1+ TD catches
- Dak Prescott: 8.5+ yards rushing

SNF:

CHIEFS -6 vs. Colts ❌ – The Chiefs looked like they have their shit together (won by 21) and the Colts … did not (lost by 18). So let’s bet the obvious thing.

–––
Last week: 5-3
This week: 7-4

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

I actually finished in the black last season – especially after hitting it big in the Super Bowl – so I’m feeling good about this season. But my “system”, such that it is, needs in-season stats. Week 1–4 always feel like a complete crapshoot. Every season there are teams that were expected to be good that are awful, and there are good teams that seemingly come out of nowhere. So I figured I’d only bet a few games this week. Wound up betting 6 of them because I’m an idiot.

Thursday Night: I forgot the season didn’t start on Sunday. I think the season ought to start on Sundays. But I saved some dough here because I definitely would’ve bet the Rams over the Niners if I’d known they were playing before I went to California (where I couldn’t bet from my PA account) – unless I had also known that the Rams only flew into Australia one day before the game. I’ve been to New Zealand twice and that jet leg is absolutely brutal. I don’t know what the fuck the Rams were thinking.

Sunday 1pm:

Bears -3 vs. PANTHERS ✅

STEELERS -6.5 vs. Falcons ✅ – Mike McCarthy is a genius at winning low-stakes regular season games.

Bills -1 vs. TEXANS ✅

Sunday 4:30pm:

Commanders +6 vs. EAGLES ✅

VIKINGS -2 vs. Packers ✅

SNF:

Cowboys -3 vs. GIANTS 2× bet ❌ ❌ – Every game’s a home game when you’re America’s Team. I’ve got a little scratch down on Dallas to win the Super Bowl this year too. I can feel it. They’re due. Postgame: What a bed-shitting of a game that was for the Dallas defense. Jiminy Christ that was embarrassing.

MNF:

Broncos +2.5 vs. CHIEFS ❌ – I think the Chiefs are cooked.

–––
This week: 5-3

My guess was that Drake May would choke, big time.

Seattle to win Super Bowl ✅ ✅ ✅ +150 2x bet placed before the conference championships.

Seattle -4.5 vs. Pats 2x bet ✅ ✅

Parlay +210 2x bet ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
- Seattle moneyline
- Darnold 200+ passing yards - Walker 75+ rushing yards

Seahawks -16.5 vs. Pats +400 prop spread ❌

–––
Regular season final record: 70-60 (.538)

Wildcard round: 4-5
Divisional round: 3-3
Conference championships: 2-2
Super Bowl: 9-1

Postseason record: 18-11 (.621)

2025 season record: 88-71 (.553)

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.

It would be a beautiful thing if one of these games were outdoors on the East Coast today.

BRONCOS +3.5 vs. Patriots ❌ – As Nick Foles quipped, “They struggle against backup QBs.”

Parlay +335: ❌
- Broncos moneyline - Jarrett Stidham 200+ passing yards

SEAHAWKS -2.5 vs. Rams ✅ – The Seahawks are the team to beat.

Parlay +150: ✅
- Seahawks moneyline
- Sam Darnold 200+ passing yards

Seahawks to win Super Bowl +150 2× bet

–––
Regular season final record: 70–60 (.538)
This week: 2-2

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.

Saturday:

Bills +1.5 vs. BRONCOS 2× bet ❌ ❌

SEAHAWKS -7 vs. Niners ✅

Parlay +450: ❌
- Bills moneyline
- Josh Allen 200+ passing yards
- Seahawks moneyline
- Sam Darnold 200+ passing yards

Sunday:

Texans-PATRIOTS OVER 40.5 ✅

BEARS +4 vs. Rams ✅

–––
Regular season final record: 70–60 (.538) Wildcard round last week: 4-5
This week: 3-3

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.

Saturday:

Rams -10 vs. PANTHERS ❌ – There should be a rule that if any team wins its division but has a losing record (like the 8-9 Panthers), they don’t qualify for the playoffs. Add another wildcard team with a winning record. I’m betting the Rams on general principle, but also because looking at season point differentials (Rams: +172, Panthers -69) you can argue that the line ought to be more like -14.

BEARS +2 vs. Packers ✅ – What a fun game that was to watch having bet on the Bears. What a sickening experience it must have been for Packers fans. That must be the biggest playoff choke since the Falcons blew that 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl to the Patriots.

Sunday:

Bills-JAGS OVER 51.5 ❌ – Whoever wins this game is probably the team I’ll root for the rest of the way, and I genuinely think the winner of this game is likely to play in the Super Bowl. (Give me a break with the fucking Broncos. Weakest #1 seed in years.) So today I’ll just bet the over and hope for a fun shootout. The goddamn hook got me.

Niners +6 vs. EAGLES ✅
Niners beat EAGLES +225 moneyline ✅ ✅ – The Niners were 6-2 in the last 8 games of the season; the Eagles were 4-4, which included a 13-12 turd of a win over the Bills. I love the Niners +6, and I like them to flat out win. These playoffs aren’t really AFC-NFC – I think they’re AFC-NFC West.

Chargers +3.5 vs. PATS ❌ – I’m just rooting for the Chargers here. I can’t argue this is a good bet. But still, as good as Vrabel has the Patriots playing, their season schedule was just historically weak. The Pats only played 4 games against playoff teams all year – lost to Steelers, beat Panthers, beat Bills, lost to Bills. I think it’s a mystery what either of these teams is going to look like today.

MNF:

STEELERS +3 vs. Texans ❌
STEELERS-Texans OVER 38 ❌ – Betting the over feels smart. Betting the Steelers +3 is just my rooting interest against Houston.

—
Regular season final record: 70–60 (.538)
This week: 4-5

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics. Here’s ESPN’s roundup of news and lineup expectations. Also, the excellent NFL Playoff Scenarios site, which gives you just what it says on the tin.

I’m 5 games over .500 heading into the final week of the season. That’s about dead even given the typical -110 vig. No sitting on the lead though.

Saturday:

Seahawks vs. NINERS -130 moneyline ✅
Seahawks-NINERS OVER 44.5 ❌

Sunday 1pm:

Saints-FALCONS UNDER 43.5 ✅

Cowboys -3 vs. GIANTS ❌
Cowboys-GIANTS OVER 50 ✅

JAGS -12.5 vs. Titans ✅
Titans-JAGS OVER 46 ✅

Colts-TEXANS UNDER 37.5 ❌

Sunday 4pm:

BEARS -4.5 vs. Lions ❌

RAMS -14 vs. Cardinals ✅ Cardinals-RAMS OVER 47.5 ✅

Dolphins-PATS OVER 45.5 ✅

SNF:

Ravens-STEELERS OVER 41.5 ✅

–––
Season to date, weeks 1–16: 61-56
This week: 9-4

Regular season final record: 70-60 (.538)