My guess was that Drake May would choke, big time.

Seattle to win Super Bowl ✅ ✅ ✅ +150 2x bet placed before the conference championships.

Seattle -4.5 vs. Pats 2x bet ✅ ✅

Parlay +210 2x bet ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
- Seattle moneyline
- Darnold 200+ passing yards - Walker 75+ rushing yards

Seahawks -16.5 vs. Pats +400 prop spread ❌

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Regular season final record: 70-60 (.538)

Wildcard round: 4-5
Divisional round: 3-3
Conference championships: 2-2
Super Bowl: 9-1

Postseason record: 18-11 (.621)

2025 season record: 88-71 (.553)

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.

It would be a beautiful thing if one of these games were outdoors on the East Coast today.

BRONCOS +3.5 vs. Patriots ❌ – As Nick Foles quipped, “They struggle against backup QBs.”

Parlay +335: ❌
- Broncos moneyline - Jarrett Stidham 200+ passing yards

SEAHAWKS -2.5 vs. Rams ✅ – The Seahawks are the team to beat.

Parlay +150: ✅
- Seahawks moneyline
- Sam Darnold 200+ passing yards

Seahawks to win Super Bowl +150 2× bet

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Regular season final record: 70–60 (.538)
This week: 2-2

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.

Saturday:

Bills +1.5 vs. BRONCOS 2× bet ❌ ❌

SEAHAWKS -7 vs. Niners ✅

Parlay +450: ❌
- Bills moneyline
- Josh Allen 200+ passing yards
- Seahawks moneyline
- Sam Darnold 200+ passing yards

Sunday:

Texans-PATRIOTS OVER 40.5 ✅

BEARS +4 vs. Rams ✅

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Regular season final record: 70–60 (.538) Wildcard round last week: 4-5
This week: 3-3

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.

Saturday:

Rams -10 vs. PANTHERS ❌ – There should be a rule that if any team wins its division but has a losing record (like the 8-9 Panthers), they don’t qualify for the playoffs. Add another wildcard team with a winning record. I’m betting the Rams on general principle, but also because looking at season point differentials (Rams: +172, Panthers -69) you can argue that the line ought to be more like -14.

BEARS +2 vs. Packers ✅ – What a fun game that was to watch having bet on the Bears. What a sickening experience it must have been for Packers fans. That must be the biggest playoff choke since the Falcons blew that 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl to the Patriots.

Sunday:

Bills-JAGS OVER 51.5 ❌ – Whoever wins this game is probably the team I’ll root for the rest of the way, and I genuinely think the winner of this game is likely to play in the Super Bowl. (Give me a break with the fucking Broncos. Weakest #1 seed in years.) So today I’ll just bet the over and hope for a fun shootout. The goddamn hook got me.

Niners +6 vs. EAGLES ✅
Niners beat EAGLES +225 moneyline ✅ ✅ – The Niners were 6-2 in the last 8 games of the season; the Eagles were 4-4, which included a 13-12 turd of a win over the Bills. I love the Niners +6, and I like them to flat out win. These playoffs aren’t really AFC-NFC – I think they’re AFC-NFC West.

Chargers +3.5 vs. PATS ❌ – I’m just rooting for the Chargers here. I can’t argue this is a good bet. But still, as good as Vrabel has the Patriots playing, their season schedule was just historically weak. The Pats only played 4 games against playoff teams all year – lost to Steelers, beat Panthers, beat Bills, lost to Bills. I think it’s a mystery what either of these teams is going to look like today.

MNF:

STEELERS +3 vs. Texans ❌
STEELERS-Texans OVER 38 ❌ – Betting the over feels smart. Betting the Steelers +3 is just my rooting interest against Houston.

—
Regular season final record: 70–60 (.538)
This week: 4-5

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics. Here’s ESPN’s roundup of news and lineup expectations. Also, the excellent NFL Playoff Scenarios site, which gives you just what it says on the tin.

I’m 5 games over .500 heading into the final week of the season. That’s about dead even given the typical -110 vig. No sitting on the lead though.

Saturday:

Seahawks vs. NINERS -130 moneyline ✅
Seahawks-NINERS OVER 44.5 ❌

Sunday 1pm:

Saints-FALCONS UNDER 43.5 ✅

Cowboys -3 vs. GIANTS ❌
Cowboys-GIANTS OVER 50 ✅

JAGS -12.5 vs. Titans ✅
Titans-JAGS OVER 46 ✅

Colts-TEXANS UNDER 37.5 ❌

Sunday 4pm:

BEARS -4.5 vs. Lions ❌

RAMS -14 vs. Cardinals ✅ Cardinals-RAMS OVER 47.5 ✅

Dolphins-PATS OVER 45.5 ✅

SNF:

Ravens-STEELERS OVER 41.5 ✅

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Season to date, weeks 1–16: 61-56
This week: 9-4

Regular season final record: 70-60 (.538)