NFL 2023 Playoffs: Wildcard Weekend

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.


Browns -2.5 vs. TEXANS 2× bet ❌ ❌ – The Browns scored just under 22 points per game pre-Flacco. With Flacco, they’re averaging just over 29. That’s a full TD per game. Also, Tom Brady holds the NFL record for road playoff wins: 7. But he’s tied for that record with … Joe Fucking Flacco. That’s right – if the Browns win, Joe Flacco becomes the winningest road quarterback in NFL history. (Super Bowls obviously don’t count as road games.) CJ Stroud impressed last week on national TV against Indy, but the Texans as a team did not. Indy should have won that game but choked – on the field and especially on the sidelines – in the final 5 minutes. Also, I think the Browns have a championship-caliber defense, and will put pressure on Stroud he won’t handle.

Parlay +750
- Browns -0.5 first half
- Browns win game
- Flacco: 2+ passing TDs
+ Flacco: 250+ passing yards
- Amari Cooper: 77+ receiving yards

CHIEFS -4.5 vs. Dolphins 2× bet ✅ ✅
CHIEFS -13 vs. Dolphins ✅ ✅ +243 alternate line – First, Miami’s defense is seriously banged up. Second, weather. I read up on it and it turns out that warm-weather and dome teams actually perform pretty well against the point spread in cold weather. But Tua Tagovailoa? 0-6 in sub-45°F games, with miserable stats. There’s a paper tiger aspect to the Dolphins too: they only beat one playoff team all season, a 22-20 squeaker over Dallas on Christmas Eve. (That said, the Chiefs only beat one playoff team, too – the Dolphins, 21-14, back on November 5.)


COWBOYS -7 vs. Packers 2× bet ❌ ❌ – In a sense the Cowboys can’t lose today. Either they win the game and head to the divisional round with another home game, or the Joneses fire McCarthy and Bill Belichick comes to Big D, just like his mentor Bill Parcells did. (We won’t talk about how many Super Bowls Parcells went to in Dallas.) The Packers of the last two months are a scary team. They opened a serious can of whip-ass on Detroit on national TV on Thanksgiving. Jordan Love’s numbers have been amazing. But Dallas should win this game handily. The soft spot in Green Bay’s defense is the middle of the field, and Dak Prescott loves throwing over the middle, and CeeDee Lamb loves running routes up the middle.

COWBOYS +120 moneyline ❌ ❌ – Throwing good money after bad while Green Bay is sitting on a 14-0 lead.

Parlay +500 ❌ – If you told me the other 6 legs of this parlay would hit, I’d have said Dallas was a lock to win the game. But they got killed. Just humiliated. What a crazy game.
- Cowboys moneyline
+ Cowboys over 27.5 points
+ Prescott: 255+ passing yards
+ Prescott: 2+ passing TDs
+ Lamb: 85+ receiving yards
+ Ferguson: 40+ receiving yards
+ Pollard: 50+ rushing yards

Rams +3 vs. LIONS 2× bet ✅ ✅
Rams -6.5 alternate line (+300) ❌ – LaPorta being out is a killer for the Lions. Not a national household name yet but he was the best tight end in the NFL this year, and I think the Lions’ best receiver period. Plus, if anyone knows Jared Goff’s weaknesses, it’s Sean McVay. Well, LaPorta played – and caught a huge TD. Great game though.

Parlay +700
+ Rams +3
+ Stafford: 2+ passing TDs
+ Stafford: 279+ passing yards
- Kupp: 60+ receiving yards
+ Nacua: 70+ receiving yards


Parlay -135
+ BILLS -3 (alternate spread) vs. Steelers
- UNDER 44 total points (alternate O/U)

Parlay +220
+ BILLS -7
- Josh Allen: 225+ passing yards
+ Stefon Diggs: 50+ receiving yards

Parlay +600
+ BILLS -9.5
- Josh Allen: 225+ passing yards
+ Josh Allen: anytime TD scorer
- Stefon Diggs: 67+ receiving yards

BUCS +2.5 vs. Eagles ✅ – Jalen Hurts has been playing badly, now his middle finger is all messed up on his throwing hand, and AJ Brown – the Eagles’ best receiver by far – is out of the game with an injury. The Eagles secondary seemingly can’t cover anyone, and Baker Mayfield looks pretty good. I like the Bucs to win and Mayfield to have a standout day.

Parlay +550
+ BUCS +7 (alternate line)
+ Mayfield: 275+ passing yards
- Chris Godwin: 50+ receiving yards
- Mike Evans: 70+ receiving yards

Parlay +1200
+ BUCS: +2.5
+ Mayfield: 2+ TD passes
+ Mayfield: 275+ yards passing
- Hurts: anytime TD scorer

Season to date (regular season): 67-81-3
This week: 7-15