My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics. First four picks this week are all road favorites.

Bills -8.5 vs. BEARS ✅ — The Bills are averaging a 9.6-point winning margin, have won 5 games in a row, and are playing to keep the #1 playoff seed, so I think they win this game by 10+ more often than not.

Bengals -3 vs. PATS ✅ — The Bengals are too good, and Mac Jones is too bad. I don’t see the Pats hanging around for 60 minutes.

Lions -2.5 vs. PANTHERS ❌ — The Lions have won 3 in a row and damn if they didn’t almost steal that Thanksgiving game against the Bills. I’m surprised this line isn’t more like 4 points.

COWBOYS -3.5 vs. Eagles ✅ — Waited to the last minute to place this one, got -3.5 instead of -4. I say no way do the Eagles score much without Hurts. Well I was very wrong about the Eagles’ ability to score without Hurts but covered anyway. Sports!

Monday Night:

Chargers -4.5 vs. COLTS ✅ — You blow a 33-point lead in an already disappointing and tumultuous season, I’m thinking you come out flat the next week. Also: the Chargers are playing well down the stretch.

Season to date (weeks 1–15): 30-29-4
This week: 4-1