My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Four picks (so far) this week, all of them favorites.

CHIEFS -9.5 vs. Jaguars ✅ – I think on paper the Jags look good to cover. The Chiefs are only +54 on point differential, and the Jags are a surprising +21 for a 3-6 team. This is more of a bet on the Chiefs playing more dominant football in November and December.

BILLS -6.5 vs. Vikings ❌ – Bills lost a stinker last week (17-20 vs. the upstart Jets). I look for a championship caliber team to come roaring back after a loss like that.

GIANTS -4.5 vs. Texans ✅ – The Giants are really just squeaking by: a 6-2 record but only +6 on point differential. But the Texans stink. They’re either the worst team in the league or second-worst (to the Steelers).

Cowboys -3.5 vs. PACKERS ❌ – There was a point long ago, in Aikman-Favre years, when it seemed like Green Bay could never beat Dallas. Then it flipped, and the Romo/Prescott-Rodgers era, it’s seemed like Dallas can never beat Green Bay. Streak has to flip back eventually I say.

Season to date (weeks 1–9): 19-18-4
This week: 2-2