My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS.

Cowboys -3 vs. COMMANDERS 2× pick of the week ✅ ✅ — Say what you want about Dallas this year, their defense has been good, and their pass rush has been excellent. And Washington let Carson Wentz get sacked … checks stats … like 50 times last week against Philly. I say Dallas eats Wentz alive and wins by some score like 23-10.

RAVENS +3 vs. Bills ✋ – I love watching the Bills but I just don’t think they’re “top team in the AFC” good. I just don’t. So I’ll take the points at home for the Ravens.

Jaguars +6.5 vs. EAGLES ❌ – Two factors here. One: pure spite. I like Doug Pederson and Philly did him wrong. He should be the coach here for the next 20 years. The Jaguars know that this is their playoff game. This one means something for Pederson. Second: the weather here is shit today. It’s cold and wet and I think that helps the underdog.

Patriots +9.5 vs. PACKERS ✅ – I have a surprising number of Patriots-fan friends. And whenever I bet on the Pats, they give me a hard time, because they think I’m jinxed and which ever way I bet on a Pats game, I’m sure to lose. “Don’t bet on the Pats, Grubes.” But I say to these friends: you’re idiots. You’re idiots first because you’re Patriots fans. But you’re idiots second because I have made some money over the years betting against, and occasionally for, the Pats. Sure I’ve lost more than I’ve won, by a long shot, because I bet against them every time they’ve ever been in a Super Bowl, but this isn’t the Super Bowl. It’s just a dumb week 4 game in Green Bay. And last week Green Bay could not move the ball. And this week Belichick is getting 9.5 points. I repeat: Bill Belichick is getting nine and a half points. I’ll take those points and the Pats, thank you.

Chiefs +1 vs. BUCS ✅ – I might put more on this by game time. I mean come on, the Chiefs are going to win by like 11+ points for sure. Give me a break.

Season to date (weeks 1-3): 5-11-1
This week: 4-1-1