NFL 2021 Playoff Picks, Round 1

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.


BENGALS -5.5 vs. Raiders ✅ — My gut feeling says Joe Burrows is too hot, David Carr throws too many INTs, and the Raiders used up their luck last week just to get here. Called this one. If the refs hadn’t helped the Raiders (ridiculous “roughing the passer” call down the stretch), it wouldn’t even have been close.

Patriots over BILLS +185 moneyline
Patriots +4.5 vs. BILLS ❌ — The Bills are at home but this is Patriots weather. I can’t see them throwing only three total passes again, but a grind-it-out running game looks good when the temperature is hovering around 0°F. Put these two teams in a dome or warm-weather stadium, I might go Bills, but tonight in Buffalo, I’ll take Belichick. Two bets, one on the spread, one on the moneyline. I lost two bets but it was worth every penny to see the Pats pantsed like this. My god, what a defenestration. Maybe the Steelers aren’t the worst team in the playoffs.


BUCS -8.5 vs. Eagles ✅ — Who’s more likely to throw a bad INT, Brady or Hurts?

COWBOYS -3 vs. Niners ❌ ❌ — 2× bet. The classic NFC playoff rivalry of my lifetime returns. I hear a lot of folks saying the Niners are a bad matchup for Dallas, but I say that’s good. If you can’t beat a good team, you’re not going anywhere in the playoffs anyway. Would love to see Dallas establish the running game first, then pass.

CHIEFS -12.5 vs. Steelers ✅ — There’s always one bad team that makes the NFL playoffs and this year it’s Pittsburgh. I might look at some alternate lines and bet KC up to -18 or so. As exciting as last week was, I foresee an ignominious end to Big Ben’s career in this game.


RAMS -3.5 vs. Arizona ✅ — I’ll take the Rams but really hate that half point on this line.

Regular season final record: 55-61
This week: 4-4