NFL 2021 Week 18 Picks

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments in italics.

One rule I live by in the last week of the season: never bet a game with no playoff implications. Might as well bet on the coin toss.


Chiefs -11 vs. BRONCOS ❌ – I expected more from KC.

Cowboys -6.5 vs. EAGLES ✅ ✅ – 2× bet. I was going to stay away from this game, thinking neither team was going to play its starters. But then the betting line jumped from -3.5 to -6.5 (and -7 at one book) right before the game started. That said to me that word got out that Dallas was going to play for real, and that turned out to be exactly right.


Steelers +3 vs. RAVENS ✅ – Ravens have lost four in a row, and Big Ben is a big game player. I’ll take the points.

RAMS -3.5 vs. San Fran ❌ – The Rams are hot, and Garoppolo’s thumb is a big question mark. And I just like betting against SF.

BUCS -9 vs. Panthers ✅ – I’m thinking the Bucs are in a similar situation as Dallas. They might play hard for longer than you’d think just to go into the playoffs with a good taste in their mouth. They won last week but looked bad.

RAIDERS +3 vs. Chargers ✅ – Hell of a game to end the season. Raiders have been all over the place this season, and my bets on them have too. I like them as home underdogs in this one.

Season to date (weeks 1–17): 50-58
This week: 5-2

Regular season final record: 55-60 (47.8%)