NFL 2020 Week 12 Picks

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS.
Post-game comments in italics.

Here’s what you do on Thanksgiving: you bet against the Detroit Lions, and you bet on America’s Team, the Dallas Cowboys. You could put your kids through college with this investment strategy.


Texans -3 vs. LIONS – Look, if they beat the Pats, they can beat the Lions. It’s just math. ✅ That was a fire-the-coach bad game by Lions.

COWBOYS -3 vs. No-Names – Hear me out. I have a theory. Don’t let Andy Dalton’s fluke concussion distract you. He’s a good enough QB to make the Dallas Cowboys the best team in the NFC East. They might only lose one more game. They can roll into the playoffs 7-9 or hell maybe even 8-8. And then they’ll get beaten in the first round by some embarrassing score that looks like a JV basketball game, like 43-10 or something. 2× lock squandering of cash of the week. ❌ ❌ That was a fire-the-coach bad game by Cowboys.


Raiders -3.5 vs. FALCONS — I feel like the Raiders are uniquely poised to take advantage of the COVID outbreak homestretch of the season because so many of them already had it. Also, they looked really good last week against the Chiefs. ❌ Jiminy, what happened to the Raiders this week?

Saints -16.5 vs. BRONCOS — I’m not saying this is a smart bet, I’m just saying how can you not place a bet on a game whose storyline is this crazy. And no matter how big the line, I say you might as well bet against the team with zero quarterbacks on their eligible roster. The Under might be a good bet in this game too. ✅ I can’t believe I didn’t bet more against a team that didn’t have a quarterback.

Chiefs -3.5 vs. BUCS — Old Tom Brady really one-upped himself last week, with a game-ending INT that was thrown about 15 yards over his apparently-intended receiver. I say the jig is up, and the Chiefs will run up the score. Really surprised this line isn’t closer to 6 points. 2x pick of the day. ❌ ❌ Brady throws two bad INTs, the Chiefs jump out to a huge first-half lead, and somehow they don’t cover.


Seahawks -6.5 vs. EAGLES – Two hell with betting on football if the Seahawks can’t beat the goddamn Eagles by a touchdown. ❌ This was my first genuinely bad beat of the year. Jiminy Christ, that last second touchdown + 2-point conversion.

Season to date (weeks 1–11): 29-37-1
This week: 2-6