My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS.
Post-game comments in italics.

Not a lot of picks this week. Most seasons, narratives seem more clear by mid-season. This year there feels like more of an “anything could happen” vibe. Take that Saints-Panthers game. My first thought was to take the Saints -7. Then my second thought was, maybe the Panthers will flat-out win that game, maybe I should take them on the moneyline. So I skipped it. Here are the picks I feel good about:

Bills -9.5 vs. JETS – The Jets are in such utter, total, embarrassing, you-just-don’t-see-this-sort-of-thing-in-the-NFL freefall that I can’t believe they’re even setting a number on this game. I found it at 9.5 points, most books have it at 10. Feels like easy money. ❌ Easy come, easy go.

Cowboys +1 vs. FOOTBALL TEAM – Even Dallas fans have to joke about the dreadful, comically bad defensive season Dallas is having, and there’s nothing funny about Dak Prescott’s awful injury. But Zeke Elliott fumbling twice last week – that’s not him. That’s just rotten luck. There’s no way Dallas is as bad as Washington, and there’s no way Dallas falls to 0-7 against the spread on the season. 2× pick of the week. ❌❌ I don’t feel so good.

Right?

RAIDERS +4 vs. Bucs – I love this game at +4 instead of, say, +3. Feels like one that could easily come down to a last second field goal. And Brady is due for a pick 6. ❌ I think I ate something bad.

PATS -3 vs. Niners – It really is fascinating to see the Brady-without-Belichick vs. Belichick-without-Brady thing start out so lopsidely in Brady’s favor. But do we really expect the Pats to fall to 2-4? Against a not-so-great San Fran team? It’s a lot easier for a team with offensive problems to turn it around than a team with defensive troubles. Wait, did I just bet on Dallas? Checks notes … Uh-oh. ❌ Get me a bucket, quick.

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Season to date (weeks 1–6): 18-21-1
This week 0-5