My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS.
Post-game comments in italics.

Another week with a slew of early window games Sunday that I wouldn’t get near betting with someone else’s money. Bears +2 at Panthers? That sounds like a hell of a fun game to watch but I feel like one of these teams is going with by 3 and it feels like a coin toss which it’ll be. Browns +3 at Steelers. OK I was close, really close, to taking the Steelers in this game. That’s probably the smart move. But man these Browns can run the ball, and they’re 4-1. “The 4-1 Cleveland Browns” – let that roll off your tongue. Ravens -10 at Eagles? Too many points to touch.

PATS -7 vs. Broncos – What is going on with this line? Does anyone really think the 2-2 Patriots are a 2-2 quality team? That they’re going to let this game stay within one possession? This game has blowout written all over it. ❌ I’d say we’re in red alert time for the Patriots. You score 12 against Denver to fall to 2-3 and it’s looking less like a slow start and more like a bad team.

DOLPHINS -8.5 vs. Jets – It feels crazy betting on the Dolphins -8.5 points. Against 30 other teams in the NFL, you’d have to be nuts. But this is the Jets, who are 0-5 and somehow getting worse. This is one of those “don’t overthink it” bets. Just bet on the Jets losing big and that’s it. ✅ Easy money.

Football Team vs. GIANTS OVER 42.5 – There are two teams in the NFC that have played 5 games and still haven’t scored 100 points this season. They’re both playing in this game, which is why the O/U line looks like it’s from the pre-Super Bowl era. I say they can both score 21 and someone will kick a game-winning field goal or shit out a safety or something. I mean come on. ❌ Man. So the Football Team was down 20-13 and scored a late touchdown to make it 20-19. If they kick a field goal the Over covers for sure, other than the highly unlikely outcome of a tie, or the even less likely (don’t know if it’s ever happened?) outcome of a game-winning safety. But the Team elected to go for 2, which doomed the Over. But, it’s the right move to make. You go for 2 and try to win the game while you control the ball. But of course they blew it and lost.

Packers -1.5 vs. BUCS – This is like giving the Packers 5.5 points after you factor in the pick 6 from Tom Brady. ❌ Pack when from up 10-0 to down 38-10. Oof. At this point the Belichick-without-Brady vs. Brady-without-Belichick contest is looking like a rout, and an embarrassing one for Belichick at that, given that the Pats’ whole problem is that they can’t score points.

Sunday Night:

Rams -2.5 vs. NINERS – What’s going on with this line? Are people not seeing that the Rams look really good again this year? And San Fran not so much? ❌

Monday Night:

Chiefs -5 vs. BILLS – The Bills are 4-1, yes, but net -3 points on the season. I’m just not seeing them as “keep it within a touchdown against the Chiefs” good, and after last week’s shellacking at the hands of the Raiders, the Chiefs are going to come into this game hot. ✅

COWBOYS +1 vs. Cardinals – What a gut punch last week’s gruesome, devastating broken bone injury to Dak Prescott was. I like goofing around with these bets and watching the games, but that was a real “Why do we even let men play this game?” moment. Just awful. And no one but a fool can argue Dallas isn’t a much worse team without Prescott, who has been absolutely electric this season when Dallas falls behind, which, uh, has been every damn game, because they have the worst defense in the league. But. It really has been clear that even when down, Dallas has not been running the ball enough. They really could and probably should be the best running team in the league. And Andy Dalton is almost certainly the best red-headed quarterback in the history of the league. Again, there’s no way Dallas is a better team with Dalton at QB, but, I think Dallas could straighten out this embarrassment of a defense with Dalton at QB and start, you know, getting the lead at some point in some of these games. ❌ First place in the NFC East.

Season to date (week 1–5): 16-16-1
Season to date not including Dallas games: 16-11-1 This week: 2-5