My pick to win: listed first. All caps: home team.

CHIEFS -7.5 vs. Titans – I usually place my bets at the end of the week. This one I placed back on Monday. I should have waited – the line has dropped to KC -7. I’m going to be pissed if I lose by that half point. But fair’s fair – I placed the bet early because I expected the line to go up, not down.

Derrick Henry has had the best three-game streak of any running back in NFL history. He’s been simply amazing, and the Titans have ridden him to victories at New England and Baltimore – both Super Bowl contenders. Can he do it four games in a row? It’d be something to see. But holy hell the Chiefs were down 24-0 and wound up winning in a route. They are on fire. And while the Ravens only scored 12 points last week, Lamar Jackson racked up over 400 yards passing and 100 yards rushing. They had nine drives that crossed the 50 yard line. I’m not saying the Titans got lucky, per se, but if they were playing the Ravens again this week I think they’d be 7.5-point underdogs again. I’d love that extra half point I’d have gotten by waiting until today to bet, but I feel there’s a way better than 50 percent chance the Chiefs win this easily, especially if they get up early. 2× wager. ✅✅

Packers +8 vs. NINERS – I’ve gotten killed all season long betting against the 49ers. A quick scan of my season picks says I’m 3-8 betting against them. Why stop now? (This is a game where it paid to wait to bet – this line opened at SF -7.) 2× wager. ❌❌

6.5-point teaser: CHIEFS -1 and Packers +16: One more 2× wager to cover my ass – betting that the Chiefs will at least win and the Packers won’t get blown out. ❌

Last week: 3-2
Season to date: 58-67-2