My pick to win: listed first. All caps: home team.

Vikings +7 vs. NINERS – I was all set to break down and bet on the Niners. I think the Saints botched last week’s game against the Vikes. Just bad play calling, trying to get tricky when they just needed to do the obvious things. In my head I had the Vikes as a paper tiger, about to get destroyed by the Niners. But then I looked at the numbers. Over the last 6 games of the regular season and last week’s playoff game, the Vikings are winning by an average of 4.3 points per game. The Niners over that same stretch: 4.8. I’ll take the Vikings and the points. ❌

Titans +9.5 vs. RAVENS – 9.5 points is too many for a team that just beat the Patriots in Foxborough. They beat the Patriots in Foxborough. Tannehill proved himself to be solid under pressure. Sure, I think the Ravens will win. Sure, I think they might win big. But I think there’s way more than a 50 percent chance that the Titans at least keep it within a score. ✅

CHIEFS -9.5 vs. Texans – Same line as the Titans-Ravens game, but this time I think it’s too low. Over the last 6 weeks of the regular season (and last week’s wildcard game for Houston), the Chiefs are winning by 16.3 points per game and the Texans are losing by 2.4. I think this should be a 13 or 14-point line. Also, the Chiefs defense has been monstrous down the stretch, giving up only 12 points per game down the stretch. I just don’t see the Texans scoring much at all, and can’t see the Chiefs scoring less than 24. 2× pick of the week. ✅✅

Seahawks +185 moneyline vs. PACKERS – The Seahawks are getting 4 points but I don’t think they’ll need them. I think they’ll straight up win. The knock against the Seahawks is that most of their wins this season have been close games. They’re not a dominant team, no argument. But I don’t think they won those games by luck. I think they’re a gritty team that knows how to finish a close game. I also think that this “We’ve got an old guy playing quarterback” thing is starting to catch up to teams. Brady? Out. Brees? Out. Rodgers isn’t that old, but he’s closer to a Brees-type QB than he is to a Russell Wilson. The mobile young QBs can do things the old slow guys can’t, and I think defenses are starting to take advantage of that. And don’t give me any shit about playing at Lambeau. If the Seahawks can win at Philly they can win anywhere. ❌

Last week: 2-3
Season to date: 55-65-2