My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. I’m testing out a new theory: The league wants high-scoring games, and I think the refs call the games accordingly. So I’m just betting the over in every game through the Super Bowl. I’m also taking all 4 underdogs this week. Postgame comments in italics.

Saturday:

Jaguars +9.5 vs. CHIEFS ✅ – Look it’s the Chiefs. I like the Chiefs. I put a sizeable bet on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowls before the season started, and that bet is looking good. But we all know Andy Reid-coached teams often make should-be-blowouts close. And the Jaguars are fun! Fun fact: both coaches took the Eagles to the Super Bowl.

Jaguars-Chiefs OVER 52.5 ❌ – Like I wrote up top, I’m betting the over in every remaining playoff game. But shouldn’t this one be a couple points higher? 52.5 seems crazy low when the Chiefs are always a threat to score 40.

Giants +7.5 vs. EAGLES ❌ – Danny Jones, baby. He is hot and I think the Giants are playing exactly how underdogs should: with abandon. They’re not supposed to be here and they’re playing to win.

Giants-Eagles OVER 48.5 ❌

Sunday:

Bengals +6 vs. BILLS – ✅ I know the worry about the Bengals is their offensive line – injuries have more or less left them playing backups. But I still think the Bengals are likely to win this game. Josh Allen is reminding more and more of Tony Romo. I loved Romo as a player, but that style of throwing risky passes all game long doesn’t work great in the playoffs.

Bengals-Bills OVER 49 ❌

Cowboys +4 vs. NINERS – ❌ Feels like old times, seeing these two meet in the playoffs.

Cowboys-Niners OVER 46.5 ❌

2022 regular season final record: 43-35-4
Playoffs round 1: 6-4
This week: 2-6

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.

Saturday:

Seahawks +9.5 vs. NINERS ❌ – If I didn’t have a rule to bet every playoff game, I’d have stayed away from this one. I’m just leaning toward Pete Carroll maybe figuring out a way to slow the game down, keep it lowish-scoring, and maybe get Brock Purdy to finally look like a rookie.

JAGUARS +2.5 vs. Chargers ✅ – I think this should be a dynamite game. I’ll take the points along with home field and Doug Pederson as a proven big-game coach. This was a super-exciting comeback, but the Chargers’ clock management was so staggering bad in the second half, it made the Falcons’ collapse against the Patriots in the 2017 Super Bowl seem smart. If they had run the ball at all the Jags never would have time to finish the comeback.

Sunday:

Teaser: BILLS -7.5 vs. Dolphins + Giants +9 vs. VIKINGS 2× bet ❌ ❌ – I feel like the Bills are close to a lock to win by more than one touchdown, and this year’s Vikings are the kings of winning by close scores. Two days later as I write this note, and I still can’t believe the Bills didn’t crush Miami. Makes me doubt them against the Bengals next week.

BENGALS -8.5 vs. Ravens ❌ – The Ravens’ quarterback uncertainty makes this one feel like it ought be 10 or 10.5 points. Plus the Bengals might be the hottest team in the league right now, and Burrow can throw in cold weather.

BENGALS-Ravens over 40 2× bet ✅ ✅ — Sunday night add-on bet: Every over has hit so far this weekend so let’s jump on the trend.

Monday:

Cowboys over BUCCANEERS -140 moneyline ~3× bet to win 2× ✅ ✅ – I’ve got a bad feeling about this one: (1) Tom Brady; (1a) Brady has never lost to Dallas; (2) Dallas is only 1-4 on grass this year – theory being that the slower surface takes away their edge in athleticism at skill positions; (3) Dak Prescott has not been sharp – throwing too many INTs and often just plain missing open receivers. But, well, hope springs eternal, and I think the Cowboys pass rush could be in Brady’s face all game long. (If they lose, maybe Jerry Jones fires Mike McCarthy to hire Sean Payton? I’d take that as a consolation prize.)

Cowboys-BUCCANEERS OVER 40.5 ✅ – I jumped on this Over bet in the first quarter, after both teams went three-and-out on their first two possessions.

2022 regular season final record: 43-35-4

This week: 6-4

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Giants +15.5 vs. EAGLES ✅ ✅ 2x pick of the week – Fifteen and a half points!

BEARS +7 vs. Vikings ❌ — Going with my theory that the Vikes are, at best, a mediocre team that has gotten extraordinarily lucky this season.

Patriots +7.5 vs. BILLS ❌ — With a playoff berth on the line, can the Pats keep it within one score? I say yes. (Warning: I might be an idiot.)

Cowboys +135 vs. COMMANDERS moneyline ❌ – Placed this one midway through the first half after Dallas fell behind.

Season to date (weeks 1–17): 41-32-4
This week: 2-3

Regular season final record: 43-35-4

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Thursday Night:

Cowboys vs. TITANS +250 3-way parlay ✅ ✅ – With Dallas as 14-point favorites I needed some other way to bet on the game. Came up with this:

• Dallas moneyline ✔️
• CeeDee Lamb 75+ receiving yards ✔️
• Dak Prescott 250+ passing yards ✔️

Sunday:

Saints +5 vs. EAGLES ✅ – I think this is a questionable bet but I gotta pull for the Saints here, because if the Eagles lose this week and next, Dallas has a shot at the NFC East title and a home playoff game. I feel like this game locks Jalen Hurts in for MVP this season.

Jaguars -3.5 vs. TEXANS ✅ – Houston is playing well, but the Jags are, oddly enough, one of the hotter teams in the whole league, and the Jags are actually playing for a spot in the playoffs. Man, the Jags look good.

PATRIOTS -3 vs. Dolphins ❌ – In hindsight I think it’s pretty clear that those terrible interceptions Tagovailoa threw last week against the Packers weren’t an indication that he stinks as a QB or that Miami’s offensive schemes have been figured out, but rather just a side effect of Tagovailoa getting concussed again. But, still, the Dolphins look like a team that played their best football months ago. That leaves us with the Patriots, who, week to week, either look like a team that can squeeze out low-scoring wins, or, a team with a 70-year-old coach who has let the game pass him by. The stakes are high – this is effectively a playoff game for both teams. So I’ll bet on Belichick. Last-minute nearly-meaningless MiamI TD ruined this one for me.

PACKERS -3 vs. Vikings ✅ – The Vikes are 12-3 but have a point differential of just +5. That stat would look a little better if not for the 40-3 can of whoop ass Dallas laid on them in November, but still, I think the Vikes are a mediocre team with exception good fortune this season. The Packers seem like they have their act together now, and I think they really want that 7-seed playoff spot. (Weather does not seem like a factor – game time temperature in Green Bay should be in the mid 30’s). Stat of the year re: the Vikes’ 12-4 record.

SEAHAWKS +2 vs. Jets ✅ – Kind of a fascinating game. Both teams are 7-8. The Jets have lost 4 straight; the Seahawks 3 straight. Yet both teams are in the playoff hunt. I’ll take Seattle at home with the points.

Rams +6.5 vs. CHARGERS ❌ – I am not saying this line is wrong. The Chargers are 9-6, Herbert looks like one of the top QBs in the league, and the Rams (5-10) are finishing a historically bad season for a Super Bowl champ. But the Rams are the defending the champs. They’re proud, and their 51-14 pants of the Broncos last week shows that they’ve done anything but throw in the towel. Add to the mix Baker Mayfield, who is lighting it up. I’ll take a bet that the Rams can keep this close. This was a dumb bet.

Steelers vs. RAVENS +100 moneyline ✅ – I’ll take even money on the Steelers in this one. This was a smart bet.

Monday Night:

BENGALS +2.5 vs. Bills (NO BET) — I’ll take the points at home. Sure feels like these two teams might meet again in the playoffs, though, which makes me wonder how much they’ll show each other.

Season to date (weeks 1–16): 34-30-4
This week: 7-2

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics. First four picks this week are all road favorites.

Bills -8.5 vs. BEARS ✅ — The Bills are averaging a 9.6-point winning margin, have won 5 games in a row, and are playing to keep the #1 playoff seed, so I think they win this game by 10+ more often than not.

Bengals -3 vs. PATS ✅ — The Bengals are too good, and Mac Jones is too bad. I don’t see the Pats hanging around for 60 minutes.

Lions -2.5 vs. PANTHERS ❌ — The Lions have won 3 in a row and damn if they didn’t almost steal that Thanksgiving game against the Bills. I’m surprised this line isn’t more like 4 points.

COWBOYS -3.5 vs. Eagles ✅ — Waited to the last minute to place this one, got -3.5 instead of -4. I say no way do the Eagles score much without Hurts. Well I was very wrong about the Eagles’ ability to score without Hurts but covered anyway. Sports!

Monday Night:

Chargers -4.5 vs. COLTS ✅ — You blow a 33-point lead in an already disappointing and tumultuous season, I’m thinking you come out flat the next week. Also: the Chargers are playing well down the stretch.

Season to date (weeks 1–15): 30-29-4
This week: 4-1

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Argentina -115 vs. France World Cup moneyline 2x bet ✅ ✅ — Football is football. The Commissioner’s Office informs me that this bet does not count as “football”.

Cowboys -3.5 vs. JAGUARS ❌ — I get it that Dallas was flat last week (and maybe even a little lucky), and Doug Pederson has the Jags playing well. But I’d have though Dallas would be something 6.5 points favored. What a miserable way to lose a game.

Patriots +2.5 vs. RAIDERS ❌ — I feel like I get burned every time I bet the Pats but I say they finish the season strong. Worth it just to see the Pats lose that way and make the Dallas game seem like it ended with some dignity.

Bengals -3.5 vs. BUCS ✅ — Happy to bet against Brady on this one.

Season to date (weeks 1–14): 29-27-4
This week: 1-2

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS.

Chiefs -9.5 vs. BRONCOS ❌ — Was busy last weekend, made just this one pick. Putting it down here for the record. (Kinda pissed that the Chiefs didn’t cover this, but I’m glad my spidey sense feeling skip the Dallas-Houston game was correct.)

Season to date (weeks 1–13): 29-26-4

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments in italics.

Broncos at RAVENS Under 40.5 ✅ — Read today that Denver games are 10-1 taking the under, so why not jump on the trend?

Dolphins +5.5 over NINERS ❌ — My gut says this is a good bet — either the Dolphins win or it’s a last-second field goal sort of game.

Chiefs -2.5 over BENGALS ❌ — I love a big rematch game like this. But I was expecting the Chiefs to be favored by 3.5 or even 4. They looked so good last week.

COWBOYS -10.5 over Colts ✅ — I do think the Colts will be able to run against Dallas. But I expect Dallas to rack up a slew of sacks, and to pull away on the scoreboard in the second half.

Season to date (weeks 1–12): 27-24-4
This week: 2-2

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments in italics.

Thanksgiving:

LIONS over Bills +400 moneyline ❌ — I’d have avoided this game but the rules are rules and you gotta bet every game on Thanksgiving. So let’s take a flier on the home team to win it outright. So close.

COWBOYS over Giants -430 Moneyline 4× bet ✅ – There’s no way I’m going to ruin my Thanksgiving betting a 9.5-point spread. Just win, baby.

COWBOYS vs. Giants +950 6-prop parlay: ❌

• Cowboys moneyline ✔️
• Dak Prescott 199.5+ passing yards ✔️
• Ezekiel Elliott 44.5+ rushing yards ✔️
• Tony Pollard 59.5+ rushing yards ✔️
• Ezekiel Elliott score ✔️
• CeeDee Lamb score ✖️

That parlay was even closer to hitting than it looks from that list: Lamb caught a would-be TD in the second half and his second foot landed, at most, an inch out of bounds. So it goes.

Patriots +2.5 vs. VIKINGS ❌ — I think the Pats are doing what Belichick shoots for every season: playing their best football starting in November. I think the Vikings played their best football in September and October.

Sunday:

Chargers -2.5 vs. CARDINALS ❌ — Slim pickings looking at Sunday’s games and spreads. I like the Chargers to take this one.

Season to date (weeks 1–11): 26-20-4
This week: 1-4

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS.

COLTS +6.5 vs. Eagles ✅ – I gotta watch something at 1pm so I might as well bet the way I’ll be rooting. Plus, the Colts won and Eagles lost last week – bet the trends.

Jets at PATS: Under 38 ✅ – I’m sure the week I finally give in to the league-wide low-scoring trend is the week Jets-Pats turns into a basketball game, but here goes.

Commanders -3 vs. TEXANS 2× pick of the week ✅ ✅ – I don’t get this line at all. Washington won a big last week and the Texans stink. The NFL’s dumb “scandal” over the Commanders drinking a few beers on the plane ride home isn’t going to distract anyone from anything.

Cowboys -2 vs. VIKINGS ✅ – Don’t even get me started about Dallas blowing last week’s game in Green Bay after starting the 4th quarter up 28-14. Jiminy Christ. It can’t happen twice in a row, and I think Dallas’s defense will get its shit together. (Working on a parlay side bet with the Dallas moneyline, CeeDee Lamb catching a TD, and Dallas racking up 2+ sacks.)

Season to date (weeks 1–10): 21-20-4
This week: 5-0

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Four picks (so far) this week, all of them favorites.

CHIEFS -9.5 vs. Jaguars ✅ – I think on paper the Jags look good to cover. The Chiefs are only +54 on point differential, and the Jags are a surprising +21 for a 3-6 team. This is more of a bet on the Chiefs playing more dominant football in November and December.

BILLS -6.5 vs. Vikings ❌ – Bills lost a stinker last week (17-20 vs. the upstart Jets). I look for a championship caliber team to come roaring back after a loss like that.

GIANTS -4.5 vs. Texans ✅ – The Giants are really just squeaking by: a 6-2 record but only +6 on point differential. But the Texans stink. They’re either the worst team in the league or second-worst (to the Steelers).

Cowboys -3.5 vs. PACKERS ❌ – There was a point long ago, in Aikman-Favre years, when it seemed like Green Bay could never beat Dallas. Then it flipped, and the Romo/Prescott-Rodgers era, it’s seemed like Dallas can never beat Green Bay. Streak has to flip back eventually I say.

Season to date (weeks 1–9): 19-18-4
This week: 2-2

Weird looking at a lineup of Sunday games with only one NFC East team playing. We gotta bet against them though. My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS.

Vikings -3 vs. COMMANDERS ✋ — I think there is a fundamental truth to the theory that the Vikes have been lucky this year. But, still, 6-1 is 6-1.

Bills -10.5 vs JETS ❌ — I was /thisclose/ to taking the OVER (46) on this one, but when I thought about it, the only way the over hits on this game is if the Jets win in a blowout so why not bet that instead?

PATRIOTS -4.5 vs. Colts ✅ — I think the Pats are for real.

Rams +3 vs. BUCS ✋ — I’d have taken the Rams -3, let alone +3. Brady is toast.

Seahawks +1.5 vs. CARDINALS ✅ — I see this one as a close game. So I’m taking the points.

Season to date (weeks 1–8): 17-17-2 This week: 2-1-2

Didn’t like many of the lines last week; like even fewer of them this week. Weird week on the schedule for the NFL, honestly. My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS.

COWBOYS -10 vs. Bears ✅ – I was going to lay off this game with a double-digit spread but I couldn’t resist. Dak looked pretty good last week; could be a blowout.

Steelers +11.5 vs. Eagles ❌ – S Steelers kinda stink and the Eagles are – trust me, I know – undefeated. But the Steelers only got blown out by the Bills, and the Eagles aren’t the Bills. Last three Eagles win margins: 8, 3, 9. I’ll take the points.

Titans -1 vs. TEXANS ✅ – Ryan Tannehill is out but does that make this a one-point game? I say no. (I have zero idea what the stats say but my gut feeling is that teams do a lot better in recent years with backup QBs than they used to.)

Rams over FRISCO -105 Moneyline ❌ — I hit a nice 6-way parlay side bet (uncounted here) in the Dallas game so let’s put something on this one.

Season to date (weeks 1–7): 15-15-2
This week: 2-2

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS.

COWBOYS -7 vs Lions ✅ — Look at these goddamn hitting stats for the Yankees in the ALCS. It’s inexplicable. The strikeouts, in particular, are just brutal. The whole lineup is waving at breaking balls 6 inches off the plate. They’ve struck out in double digits every game so far: 17, 13, 11. It’s a testimony to the Yankees’ pitching that they were so close in games 1 and 2.

Chiefs -1.5 vs. NINERS ✅ — It’s one thing to just hit poorly, or to run into a team whose pitching staff is just in the zone. It happens. That’s baseball. And the Astros’ pitchers are pitching well. But Jiminy H. Christ, the Yankees have only scored 4 runs in 3 games. A team’s only in a slump until it’s not, but if they don’t get their shit together tonight, there ought to be a reckoning off-season. One game at a time.

Season to date (weeks 1-6): 13-15-2
This week: 2-0

Baseball is on my mind this weekend, and there are a bunch of lopsided lines this week in the NFL. So right now I’ve only got two picks:

Bills at CHIEFS OVER 54.5 ❌ – It’s been a low-scoring year for the league, but if any two teams can change that, it’s these guys.

Cowboys +6.5 vs. EAGLES ❌ – Dread feeling about that half point, but what’s a Dallas fan supposed to do?

Season to date (weeks 1-5): 13-13-2
This week: 0-2

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS.

BROWNS +1.5 vs. Chargers ❌ — I’ll take the points at home.

Falcons +10 vs. BUCS ✅ — The Falcons aren’t great but they’ve been good enough to cover this spread, I say, and there’s blood in the water with the Bucs.

Cowboys +200 vs. RAMS moneyline ✅ ✅ — I straight up like the Cowboys’s chances to win this game, so I’ll take the moneyline.

Bengals +3 vs. RAVENS ✅ — Let’s go with the Super Bowl loser and the points. Sorta feel like the Ravens’ secondary is suspect.

Season to date (weeks 1-4): 9-12-2
This week: 4-1

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS.

Cowboys -3 vs. COMMANDERS 2× pick of the week ✅ ✅ — Say what you want about Dallas this year, their defense has been good, and their pass rush has been excellent. And Washington let Carson Wentz get sacked … checks stats … like 50 times last week against Philly. I say Dallas eats Wentz alive and wins by some score like 23-10.

RAVENS +3 vs. Bills ✋ – I love watching the Bills but I just don’t think they’re “top team in the AFC” good. I just don’t. So I’ll take the points at home for the Ravens.

Jaguars +6.5 vs. EAGLES ❌ – Two factors here. One: pure spite. I like Doug Pederson and Philly did him wrong. He should be the coach here for the next 20 years. The Jaguars know that this is their playoff game. This one means something for Pederson. Second: the weather here is shit today. It’s cold and wet and I think that helps the underdog.

Patriots +9.5 vs. PACKERS ✅ – I have a surprising number of Patriots-fan friends. And whenever I bet on the Pats, they give me a hard time, because they think I’m jinxed and which ever way I bet on a Pats game, I’m sure to lose. “Don’t bet on the Pats, Grubes.” But I say to these friends: you’re idiots. You’re idiots first because you’re Patriots fans. But you’re idiots second because I have made some money over the years betting against, and occasionally for, the Pats. Sure I’ve lost more than I’ve won, by a long shot, because I bet against them every time they’ve ever been in a Super Bowl, but this isn’t the Super Bowl. It’s just a dumb week 4 game in Green Bay. And last week Green Bay could not move the ball. And this week Belichick is getting 9.5 points. I repeat: Bill Belichick is getting nine and a half points. I’ll take those points and the Pats, thank you.

Chiefs +1 vs. BUCS ✅ – I might put more on this by game time. I mean come on, the Chiefs are going to win by like 11+ points for sure. Give me a break.

Season to date (weeks 1-3): 5-11-1
This week: 4-1-1

The first few weeks of the season are always rough. I say let’s bet the hot hands this week, keep it simple.

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS.

Chiefs -5.5 vs. COLTS ❌ — If the Chiefs can’t beat the Colts by a solid touchdown something is wrong.

Bengals -6.5 vs. JETS ✅ — If the Super Bowl-caliber Bengals can’t beat the Jets by a solid touchdown something is wrong.

Bills-DOLPHINS OVER 53.5 ❌ — Why not just root for a shootout?

Packers +1.5 vs. BUCS ✅ — I gotta put my money on the youngster, 38-year-old Aaron Rodgers.

Monday Night Football:

Cowboys +1 vs. GIANTS ✅ — I’ve got a case of Cooper Rush fever.

Season to date (weeks 1-2): 2-9-1
This week: 3-2

The top request, by far, from followers of this fine blog is for me to file my picks earlier, so that people can fade my picks by betting the opposite. Go ahead you dumb bastards. This is going to be my year. Sure, week 1 was rough, but I feel like I’ve now got the pulse of the league. I’ll endeavor to start making picks on Saturdays, though, not Sunday mornings, just to make you doubters suffer.

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS.

CHIEFS -4 vs. Chargers ❌ – OK OK, I’m already off on a bad foot this week on a game played three days ago. But I’m nothing if not scrupulously honest on these picks, and I gotta say I thought the Chiefs were going to win this one by at least two TDs. Lost by 1 vs. the spread.

STEELERS +3 vs. Patriots ✋ – I’m going with a basic “whoever stunk last week is probably going to stink this week” strategy this week, and the Patriots fucking stunk last week.

Pats-STEELERS OVER 40 ❌ – 40 is just too low for the over/under in any NFL game between any two teams, unless there’s terrible weather involved.

Seahawks +8 vs. NINERS ❌ – I don’t get the line on this one. Frisco lost to the Bears last week. The Bears.

Seahawks-NINERS OVER 39.5 ❌ – I can see why this is a low total but I’m going with my basic strategy of betting overs at 40 or lower for any two teams. Anyone can score 21 and lose a game.

COWBOYS +7 vs. Bengals ✅ – This a terrible bet. The Cowboys do look like they have a good, maybe great defense. They also look like they can run the ball. But last week with Dak Prescott they looked like they literally can’t complete a meaningful pass. And now they’re starting Cooper Rush at QB. On the other hand, maybe Cooper Rush is to Prescott what Prescott was to Tony Romo in 2016, and he’s going to run off a series of exciting wins and Prescott never gets the job back. Yeah. Maybe that’s the ticket. Sure.

Yankees -190 vs. BREWERS ✅ – No way the Yankees are getting swept by a team wearing softball-rec-league-style “Brew Crew” unis. Alas I have been made aware by the authorities that this game did not count as “NFL 2022” despite being played on a Sunday afternoon in September. Two more dingers for Aaron Judge, too.

Monday Night:

Vikings +3.5 at EAGLES ❌ – Good thing I didn’t bet on the Bears Sunday night like I was tempted to.

Season to date (week 1): 1-4
This week: 1-5-1

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS.

Patriots +3.5 at DOLPHINS ❌ – The Dolphins are in such disarray that they spent the offseason scheming to get Tom Brady as owner/QB (?) and some Bill Belichick is getting 3.5 points? I’ll take the points and bet on that old son of a bitch.

Raiders +3.5 at CHARGERS ❌ – I guess I could look it up right here on this blog, but to my recollection, I got killed betting on the Raiders last year. Every week I had a good feeling about them, I bet them and lost. Every week I ignored them they covered. I’ve got a bad feeling about them in this game, so, I’m betting on them. Let’s see how that works.

Chiefs -6.5 at CARDINALS ✅ – I think the Chiefs will run the score up as high as they can.

COWBOYS +2.5 vs. Bucs 2× bet ❌ ❌ – Of course I always bet the Cowboys, and usually love betting against Tom Brady, so of course I’m taking Dallas tonight. But I genuinely believe this line is way off, skewed by Brady nutters who’d keep betting on him no matter what. The Bucs’ offensive line is a mess. Brady’s 45. I’m not saying Dallas should be huge favorites but I think they ought to be -3 or so, so I really think there’s value here.

2021 regular season final record: 55-60 (47.8%)

This week: 1-4

Bengals +4 vs. Rams ✅ – I’m all-in on team Burrow. I think the deciding play will be a Stafford INT. Well, Stafford came up big in the clutch, but the point spread worked in my favor. Good game.

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.

CHIEFS -7 vs. Bengals 2× bet ❌ ❌
CHIEFS -14 vs. Bengals (+195) 1× bet ❌ – Great run for the Bengals and a bright future ahead for young Mr. Burrow, but the ride is over.

Parlay (+173): Hill and Kelce each get 70+ receiving yards. ✅ ✅

6-pick parlay (+850): ❌
• Chiefs -6.5
• Over 44.5 total points
• Mahomes 250+ passing yards
• Kelce 65+ receiving yards
• Hill: score any TD
• Chiefs: 3+ sacks

RAMS over Niners moneyline (-175) 2x bet ✅ ✅
RAMS -9.5 vs. Niners (+200) ❌ – San Fran has won the last six matchups against the Rams, but the pre-Stafford games don’t feel relevant. The Rams with a healthy Stafford are a different team. I just don’t see Frisco scoring enough points to win.

4-pick parlay (+480): ❌

• Rams win
• Stafford 250+ pass yards
• Kupp scores a TD
• Akers 60.5+ rush yards

Close but no cigar on that parlay: Akers finished with 48 rushing yards.

Regular season final record: 55-61 (47.4%) Playoff rounds 1-2: 8-5

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.

Saturday:

Bengals +4 vs. TITANS ✅ – I just like the looks of this kid Burrow. I think Cincinnati has a great shot to win the game outright so I’ll take the points.

PACKERS -5.5 vs. San Fran ❌ – The Niners got lucky last week that Mike McCarthy – a coach who has never had a history of questionable judgment in big games, nosirree – had a goofy game. They won’t get such luck this week. Special teams will kill you.

Sunday:

Rams +130 moneyline vs. BUCS ✅ – It’s time again to bet against old man Brady.

CHIEFS -125 moneyline vs. Bills ✅ ✅ – 2× bet. I’d probably go the other way if the game were in Buffalo, but it’s not.

Regular season final record: 55-61
Playoffs round 1: 4-4

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.

Saturday:

BENGALS -5.5 vs. Raiders ✅ — My gut feeling says Joe Burrows is too hot, David Carr throws too many INTs, and the Raiders used up their luck last week just to get here. Called this one. If the refs hadn’t helped the Raiders (ridiculous “roughing the passer” call down the stretch), it wouldn’t even have been close.

Patriots over BILLS +185 moneyline ❌
Patriots +4.5 vs. BILLS ❌ — The Bills are at home but this is Patriots weather. I can’t see them throwing only three total passes again, but a grind-it-out running game looks good when the temperature is hovering around 0°F. Put these two teams in a dome or warm-weather stadium, I might go Bills, but tonight in Buffalo, I’ll take Belichick. Two bets, one on the spread, one on the moneyline. I lost two bets but it was worth every penny to see the Pats pantsed like this. My god, what a defenestration. Maybe the Steelers aren’t the worst team in the playoffs.

Sunday:

BUCS -8.5 vs. Eagles ✅ — Who’s more likely to throw a bad INT, Brady or Hurts?

COWBOYS -3 vs. Niners ❌ ❌ — 2× bet. The classic NFC playoff rivalry of my lifetime returns. I hear a lot of folks saying the Niners are a bad matchup for Dallas, but I say that’s good. If you can’t beat a good team, you’re not going anywhere in the playoffs anyway. Would love to see Dallas establish the running game first, then pass.

CHIEFS -12.5 vs. Steelers ✅ — There’s always one bad team that makes the NFL playoffs and this year it’s Pittsburgh. I might look at some alternate lines and bet KC up to -18 or so. As exciting as last week was, I foresee an ignominious end to Big Ben’s career in this game.

Monday:

RAMS -3.5 vs. Arizona ✅ — I’ll take the Rams but really hate that half point on this line.

Regular season final record: 55-61
This week: 4-4

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments in italics.

One rule I live by in the last week of the season: never bet a game with no playoff implications. Might as well bet on the coin toss.

Saturday:

Chiefs -11 vs. BRONCOS ❌ – I expected more from KC.

Cowboys -6.5 vs. EAGLES ✅ ✅ – 2× bet. I was going to stay away from this game, thinking neither team was going to play its starters. But then the betting line jumped from -3.5 to -6.5 (and -7 at one book) right before the game started. That said to me that word got out that Dallas was going to play for real, and that turned out to be exactly right.

Sunday:

Steelers +3 vs. RAVENS ✅ – Ravens have lost four in a row, and Big Ben is a big game player. I’ll take the points.

RAMS -3.5 vs. San Fran ❌ – The Rams are hot, and Garoppolo’s thumb is a big question mark. And I just like betting against SF.

BUCS -9 vs. Panthers ✅ – I’m thinking the Bucs are in a similar situation as Dallas. They might play hard for longer than you’d think just to go into the playoffs with a good taste in their mouth. They won last week but looked bad.

RAIDERS +3 vs. Chargers ✅ – Hell of a game to end the season. Raiders have been all over the place this season, and my bets on them have too. I like them as home underdogs in this one.

Season to date (weeks 1–17): 50-58
This week: 5-2

Regular season final record: 55-60 (47.8%)