John Gruber

NFL 2026 Week 5 Picks

Sun, 11 Oct 2026 10:16:00 -0400

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

TNF:

COWBOYS -8.5 vs. Bucs 2x bet ❌ ❌

Sunday:

Jags -7.5 vs. Eagles

Bears -1.5 vs. PACKERS

Raiders +3.5 vs. PATS

CHARGERS +3.5 vs. Broncos – They gotta win one eventually, right?

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Season to date: 19-10
This week: TBD

NFL 2026 Week 4 Picks

Sun, 11 Oct 2026 10:14:11 -0400

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Cowboys +3 vs. TEXANS ✅

Rams -3.5 vs. EAGLES ✅

BILLS -6.5 vs. Patriots ❌

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Season to date: 17-9
This week: 2-1

NFL 2026 Week 4 Picks

Mon, 05 Oct 2026 18:10:18 -0400

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Cowboys +3 vs. TEXANS ✅

Rams -3.5 vs. EAGLES ✅

BILLS -6.5 vs. Patriots ❌

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Season to date: 17-9
This week: 2-1

NFL 2026 Week 3 Picks

Sun, 27 Sep 2026 14:39:44 -0400

Slim pickings this week. I enjoy the fact that I’m betting BAL-DAL and PHI-CHI. (But it’s always mildly annoyed me that Philly’s three-letter abbreviation isn’t PHL, like the airport.)

Cowboys +3.5 vs. Ravens ✅ – I refuse to count a game in Brazil as a “home” game.

Parlay +480 ❌

Dallas moneyline
Prescott: 1.5+ TD passes
Prescott: 265.5+ yards passing

SNF:

Rams -1.5 vs. BRONCOS ❌

MNF:

BEARS +4 vs. Eagles ✅

Parlay +300 ✅ ✅ ✅

Bears moneyline
D’Andre Swift to rush for 75+ yards

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Season to date: 12-7
This week: 5-2

NFL 2026 Week 2 Picks

Fri, 18 Sep 2026 11:08:48 -0400

5-0 start last week and then, well, christ. My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

TNF:

BILLS -5.5 vs. Lions ✅ – It’s early but I think this might be the Bills' year.

Sunday:

Steelers +5.5 vs. PATS ❌ – I think the Pats were a fluke last year and going from the easiest schedule in the league to a Super Bowl (loser) schedule is going to prove a bitch.

BEARS -4.5 vs. Vikings ❌

Jags +2.5 vs. BRONCOS ❌

COWBOYS -4 vs. Commanders ✅

Parlay +480 ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Dallas moneyline
CeeDee Lamb: 1+ TD catches
Dak Prescott: 8.5+ yards rushing

SNF:

CHIEFS -6 vs. Colts ❌ – The Chiefs looked like they have their shit together (won by 21) and the Colts … did not (lost by 18). So let’s bet the obvious thing.

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Last week: 5-3
This week: 7-4

NFL 2026 Week 1 Picks

Sun, 13 Sep 2026 12:04:28 -0400

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

I actually finished in the black last season – especially after hitting it big in the Super Bowl – so I’m feeling good about this season. But my “system”, such that it is, needs in-season stats. Week 1–4 always feel like a complete crapshoot. Every season there are teams that were expected to be good that are awful, and there are good teams that seemingly come out of nowhere. So I figured I’d only bet a few games this week. Wound up betting 6 of them because I’m an idiot.

Thursday Night: I forgot the season didn’t start on Sunday. I think the season ought to start on Sundays. But I saved some dough here because I definitely would’ve bet the Rams over the Niners if I’d known they were playing before I went to California (where I couldn’t bet from my PA account) – unless I had also known that the Rams only flew into Australia one day before the game. I’ve been to New Zealand twice and that jet leg is absolutely brutal. I don’t know what the fuck the Rams were thinking.

Sunday 1pm:

Bears -3 vs. PANTHERS ✅

STEELERS -6.5 vs. Falcons ✅ – Mike McCarthy is a genius at winning low-stakes regular season games.

Bills -1 vs. TEXANS ✅

Sunday 4:30pm:

Commanders +6 vs. EAGLES ✅

VIKINGS -2 vs. Packers ✅

SNF:

Cowboys -3 vs. GIANTS 2× bet ❌ ❌ – Every game’s a home game when you’re America’s Team. I’ve got a little scratch down on Dallas to win the Super Bowl this year too. I can feel it. They’re due. Postgame: What a bed-shitting of a game that was for the Dallas defense. Jiminy Christ that was embarrassing.

MNF:

Broncos +2.5 vs. CHIEFS ❌ – I think the Chiefs are cooked.

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This week: 5-3

NFL 2025 Playoffs: Super Bowl 60

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 15:37:53 -0400

My guess was that Drake May would choke, big time.

Seattle to win Super Bowl ✅ ✅ ✅ +150 2x bet placed before the conference championships.

Seattle -4.5 vs. Pats 2x bet ✅ ✅

Parlay +210 2x bet ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Seattle moneyline
Darnold 200+ passing yards
Walker 75+ rushing yards

Seahawks -16.5 vs. Pats +400 prop spread ❌

–––
Regular season final record: 70-60 (.538)

Wildcard round: 4-5
Divisional round: 3-3
Conference championships: 2-2
Super Bowl: 9-1

Postseason record: 18-11 (.621)

2025 season record: 88-71 (.553)

NFL 2025 Playoffs: Conference Championships

Sun, 25 Jan 2026 12:34:49 -0400

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.

It would be a beautiful thing if one of these games were outdoors on the East Coast today.

BRONCOS +3.5 vs. Patriots ❌ – As Nick Foles quipped, “They struggle against backup QBs.”

Parlay +335: ❌

Broncos moneyline
Jarrett Stidham 200+ passing yards

SEAHAWKS -2.5 vs. Rams ✅ – The Seahawks are the team to beat.

Parlay +150: ✅

Seahawks moneyline
Sam Darnold 200+ passing yards

Seahawks to win Super Bowl +150 2× bet

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Regular season final record: 70–60 (.538)
This week: 2-2

NFL 2025 Playoffs: Divisional Round

Sat, 17 Jan 2026 13:07:52 -0400

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.

Saturday:

Bills +1.5 vs. BRONCOS 2× bet ❌ ❌

SEAHAWKS -7 vs. Niners ✅

Parlay +450: ❌

Bills moneyline
Josh Allen 200+ passing yards
Seahawks moneyline
Sam Darnold 200+ passing yards

Sunday:

Texans-PATRIOTS OVER 40.5 ✅

BEARS +4 vs. Rams ✅

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Regular season final record: 70–60 (.538) Wildcard round last week: 4-5
This week: 3-3

NFL 2025 Playoffs: Wildcard Weekend

Sat, 10 Jan 2026 17:41:10 -0400

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. In the playoffs, you have to bet every game, that’s the law. Postgame comments in italics.

Saturday:

Rams -10 vs. PANTHERS ❌ – There should be a rule that if any team wins its division but has a losing record (like the 8-9 Panthers), they don’t qualify for the playoffs. Add another wildcard team with a winning record. I’m betting the Rams on general principle, but also because looking at season point differentials (Rams: +172, Panthers -69) you can argue that the line ought to be more like -14.

BEARS +2 vs. Packers ✅ – What a fun game that was to watch having bet on the Bears. What a sickening experience it must have been for Packers fans. That must be the biggest playoff choke since the Falcons blew that 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl to the Patriots.

Sunday:

Bills-JAGS OVER 51.5 ❌ – Whoever wins this game is probably the team I’ll root for the rest of the way, and I genuinely think the winner of this game is likely to play in the Super Bowl. (Give me a break with the fucking Broncos. Weakest #1 seed in years.) So today I’ll just bet the over and hope for a fun shootout. The goddamn hook got me.

Niners +6 vs. EAGLES ✅
Niners beat EAGLES +225 moneyline ✅ ✅ – The Niners were 6-2 in the last 8 games of the season; the Eagles were 4-4, which included a 13-12 turd of a win over the Bills. I love the Niners +6, and I like them to flat out win. These playoffs aren’t really AFC-NFC – I think they’re AFC-NFC West.

Chargers +3.5 vs. PATS ❌ – I’m just rooting for the Chargers here. I can’t argue this is a good bet. But still, as good as Vrabel has the Patriots playing, their season schedule was just historically weak. The Pats only played 4 games against playoff teams all year – lost to Steelers, beat Panthers, beat Bills, lost to Bills. I think it’s a mystery what either of these teams is going to look like today.

MNF:

STEELERS +3 vs. Texans ❌
STEELERS-Texans OVER 38 ❌ – Betting the over feels smart. Betting the Steelers +3 is just my rooting interest against Houston.

—
Regular season final record: 70–60 (.538)
This week: 4-5

NFL 2025 Week 18 Picks

Sat, 03 Jan 2026 21:36:43 -0400

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics. Here’s ESPN’s roundup of news and lineup expectations. Also, the excellent NFL Playoff Scenarios site, which gives you just what it says on the tin.

I’m 5 games over .500 heading into the final week of the season. That’s about dead even given the typical -110 vig. No sitting on the lead though.

Saturday:

Seahawks vs. NINERS -130 moneyline ✅
Seahawks-NINERS OVER 44.5 ❌

Sunday 1pm:

Saints-FALCONS UNDER 43.5 ✅

Cowboys -3 vs. GIANTS ❌
Cowboys-GIANTS OVER 50 ✅

JAGS -12.5 vs. Titans ✅
Titans-JAGS OVER 46 ✅

Colts-TEXANS UNDER 37.5 ❌

Sunday 4pm:

BEARS -4.5 vs. Lions ❌

RAMS -14 vs. Cardinals ✅ Cardinals-RAMS OVER 47.5 ✅

Dolphins-PATS OVER 45.5 ✅

SNF:

Ravens-STEELERS OVER 41.5 ✅

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Season to date, weeks 1–16: 61-56
This week: 9-4

Regular season final record: 70-60 (.538)

NFL 2025 Week 17 Picks

Sat, 27 Dec 2025 19:31:05 -0400

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics. Here’s ESPN’s roundup of news and lineup expectations for the weekend games.

Christmas:

No bets. Didn’t even bet on the Cowboys.

Saturday:

CHARGERS -1.5 vs. Texans ❌
Texans-CHARGERS UNDER 40.5 ✅

Ravens-PACKERS OVER 38.5 ✅

Sunday 1pm:

Cardinals-BENGALS OVER 53.5 ❌

Steelers -3 vs. BROWNS ❌

Saints-TITANS UNDER 39.5 ❌

Jags -5.5 vs. COLTS ✅
Jags-COLTS OVER 48.5 ❌

DOLPHINS vs. Bucs +200 moneyline ✅ ✅

Pats -13.5 vs. JETS ✅
Pats-JETS OVER 42.5 ✅

Seahawks -7 vs. PANTHERS ✅

Sunday 4pm:

BILLS vs. Eagles -125 moneyline ❌

MNF:

Rams -8 vs. FALCONS ❌

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Season to date, weeks 1–16: 53-49
This week: 8-7

NFL 2025 Week 16 Picks

Sun, 21 Dec 2025 13:30:44 -0400

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics. I totally forgot there were Saturday games this week.

Sunday 1pm:

Bills -10.5 vs. BROWNS ❌ — Come on it’s the Browns.

COWBOYS -1.5 vs. Chargers ❌ — Playing for a winning record.

PANTHERS +3 vs. Buccaneers ✅

Sunday 4pm:

Jags +3.5 vs. BRONCOS ✅ — Jags are 9-5 against the spread on the season, Denver 6-8.

TEXANS -14 vs. Raiders ❌ — Huge spread but the Raiders stink.

SNF:

Patriots +3 vs. RAVENS ✅

MNF:

Niners -5.5 vs. COLTS ✅ – I got burned last week betting against the Colts but I’ll bet the same way this week. Not so much on the 49ers but against the Colts.

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Season to date, weeks 1–15: 49-46
This week: 4-3

NFL 2025 Week 15 Picks

Sun, 14 Dec 2025 14:05:27 -0400

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Sunday 1pm:

Bills -2.5 vs. PATRIOTS ✅

BEARS -7.5 vs. Browns ✅

Chargers +6 vs. CHIEFS ✅
Chargers over CHIEFS moneyline +225 ✅ ✅ – I think the wheels are coming off the KC bus.

Sunday 4pm:

RAMS -6 vs. Lions ✅

Panthers -2.5 vs. SAINTS ❌

SEAHAWKS -13.5 vs. Colts 2× bet ❌ ❌ – The Seahawks are 10-3 against the spread this year, and playing a team that might be starting a 44-year-old grandfather who hasn’t started since 2020. And they like to run up the score when they can.

SNF:

COWBOYS -5.5 vs. Vikings ❌

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Season to date, weeks 1–14: 43-42
This week: 6-4

NFL 2025 Week 14 Picks

Thu, 04 Dec 2025 21:16:33 -0400

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Thursday Night:

Cowboys +3.5 vs. LIONS ❌ – Super Bowl here we come. Post-game update: Here we don’t. What a mess that defense was.

Sunday 1pm:

Seahawks -7 vs. FALCONS ✅

Sunday 4pm:

Bears +6.5 vs. PACKERS ❌

Rams -9 vs. CARDINALS ✅

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Season to date, weeks 1–13: 41-40
This week: 2-2

NFL 2025 Week 13 Picks

Thu, 27 Nov 2025 11:28:23 -0400

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Thanksgiving:

LIONS -3 vs. Packers ❌

COWBOYS +3.5 vs. Chiefs ✅

Parlay +525: ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅

Dak Prescott 300+ yards passing
CeeDee Lamb anytime TD
Dallas +3.5 to win

Black Friday:

Bears +7 vs. EAGLES ✅ — Everything has turned up Milhouse for Dallas lately, so why not this too?

Sunday 1pm:

Niners -5 vs. BROWNS ✅

COLTS -3 vs. Texans ❌

DOLPHINS -5.5 vs. Saints ❌

Sunday 4pm:

SEAHAWKS -12 vs. Vikings ✅

Bills -3 vs. STEELERS ✅

SNF:

Broncos -6 vs. COMMANDERS ❌

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Season to date, weeks 1–12: 31-36
This week: 10-4

NFL 2025 Week 12 Picks

Sun, 23 Nov 2025 13:37:03 -0400

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Sunday 1pm:

Patriots -7 vs. BENGALS 2x bet ❌ ❌

Seahawks -12.5 vs. TITANS 2x bet ❌ ❌

4 PM:

COWBOYS +3 vs. Eagles ✅
COWBOYS over Eagles +135 moneyline ✅

Parlay +825 (half-size bet): ❌

Dak Prescott 250+ yards passing
Dak Prescott 9.5+ yards rushing
CeeDee Lamb anytime TD
Dallas +3 to win

Falcons +2 vs. SAINTS ✅

SNF:

RAMS -7 vs. Buccaneers ✅

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Season to date, weeks 1–11: 27-31½
This week: 4-4½

NFL 2025 Week 11 Picks

Sun, 16 Nov 2025 12:47:17 -0400

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Sunday Early:

DOLPHINS -2.5 vs. Commandos ✅

Chargers -3 vs. JAGS ❌ – Chargers seemed to lose their way for a few weeks but I think they’ve steadied the ship.

4 PM:

Ravens -7.5 vs. BROWNS ❌– The Ravens are back, but I always worry about the goddamn hook with a -7.5 line. Jesus Christ, the goddamn hook got me.

Chiefs -4.5 vs. BRONCOS ❌ – I think something’s fishy about Bo Nix, and Spagnuole will figure out how to confuse him into a bad INT or two.

SNF:

Lions +2.5 vs. EAGLES ❌

MNF:

Cowboys -3.5 vs. RAIDERS ✅

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Season to date, weeks 1–10: 25-27½
This week: 2-4

NFL 2025 Week 10 Picks

Sun, 09 Nov 2025 14:39:10 -0400

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Sunday 1 PM:

PANTHERS -5.5 vs. Saints ❌ – Carolina is 6-3 against the spread this season; New Orleans is 2-7.

Ravens -4 vs. VIKINGS ✅ – Would be pretty crazy and exciting for Baltimore to make a run at a playoff spot after their atrocious start.

BUCS -2.5 vs. Pats ❌ – The easy-schedule Patriots have to play a real team this week, and the weather sucks.

Parlay +2040 (half-size bet): ❌

Josh Allen (BUF) scores TD
James Cook (BUF) scores TD
Lamar Jackson (BAL) scores TD
Derrick Henry (BAL) scores TD

4 PM:

Rams -6 vs. NINERS ✅

Lions -8 vs. ORANGESKINS ✅

SNF:

CHARGERS -3 vs. Steelers ✅

MNF:

Eagles +1 vs. PACKERS ✅

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Season to date, weeks 1–9: 20-25
This week: 5-2.5

NFL 2025 Week 9 Picks

Sun, 02 Nov 2025 19:40:10 -0400

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Sunday:

PATRIOTS -5 vs. Falcons ❌

BILLS -2 vs. Chiefs ✅

SNF:

Seahawks -2.5 vs. COMMANDERS ✅

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Season to date, weeks 1–8: 18-24
This week: 2-1

NFL 2025 Week 8 Picks

Sun, 26 Oct 2025 15:42:31 -0400

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Sunday 1pm:

PATRIOTS -7 vs. Browns ✅

PANTHERS +7 vs. Bills ❌

Bears +2.5 vs. RAVENS ❌

Sunday 4pm:

Bucs -3.5 vs. SAINTS ✅

COLTS -13.5 vs. Titans ✅

Cowboys +3.5 vs. BRONCOS ❌

Parlay +360: ❌

Cowboys moneyline
Dak Prescott 251.5+ passing yards
Dak Prescott 1.5+ passing TDs

SNF:

STEELERS +3 vs. Packers ❌

–––
Season to date, weeks 1–7: 15-19
This week: 3-5

NFL 2025 Week 7 Picks

Sun, 19 Oct 2025 11:57:28 -0400

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

TNF:

Steelers over BENGALS -170 moneyline 2× bet ❌ ❌

Sunday:

CHARGERS -2 vs. Colts ❌

COWBOYS -1.5 vs. Commanders ✅

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This week: 1-3

NFL 2025 Week 6 Picks

Sun, 12 Oct 2025 12:05:38 -0400

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Broncos -7 vs. JETS ❌ – Betting against the Jets more than on Denver.

Cowboys -3 vs. PANTHERS ❌ – Love the Cowboys with this line.

STEELERS -6 vs. Browns ✅ – Come on, it’s the Browns.

Chargers -3.5 vs. DOLPHINS ❌ – No way the Chargers are losing three in a row.

BUCS -3.5 vs. Niners ✅

SNF:

Lions +2.5 vs. CHIEFS ❌

MNF:

Bills -3.5 vs. FALCONS ❌

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This week: 2-4

NFL 2025 Week 5 Picks

Sun, 05 Oct 2025 15:05:30 -0400

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

Cowboys over JETS -125 moneyline ✅ – Come on. It’s the fucking Jets.

CHARGERS -3 vs. Commanders ❌

RAVENS +1.5 vs. Texans ❌ – I know Lamar Jackson is out, but Cooper Rush is a solid backup. I just don’t see the Ravens starting the season 1-4.

SNF:

BILLS -8 vs. Patriots ❌
BILLS over Patriots -450 moneyline 4× bet ❌ ❌ ❌ ❌

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This week: 1-7

NFL 2025 Week 4 Picks

Sun, 28 Sep 2025 12:20:29 -0400

My pick: listed first. Home team: CAPS. Post-game comments, if any, in italics.

COWBOYS +10.5 vs. Packers 2× bet ✅ ✅

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This week: 2-0